Hello everyone!

Remember what I said about the track of this storm being fairly certain yesterday? Yeah, that’s not really happening. As guidance, observations, and satellite imagery give conflicting messages. it is becoming harder to formulate a forecast. There are two plausible scenarios at the moment, either the storm tracks farther east and is weaker/faster, or the storm is farther west and is stronger/slower. I’ll break down each solution below. As of now, I’m thinking that the storm stays weaker/faster.

A Weaker/Faster Storm That Tracks East

The first solution would involve a storm that develops in the SE US and moves ENE passing well to our SE and near or outside the famed “Benchmark” of 40N, 70W. The RGEM, NAM, and GFS are the big proponents of this solution and based on the sluggish strengthening of the disturbance supposed to energize the storm, I think this solution holds merit. That being said, I don’t buy the GFS verbatim. I think it’s a little too fast and weak with the storm. It grazes the coast with but an inch of snow late at night Sunday with sun returning by the Monday commute. I think a faster solution would most likely involve an inch or two at the coast and a dusting inland with the foothills and mountains remaining high and dry. This is what I’m leaning towards though with the Canadian and Euro models holding on to a stronger/farther west solution, I’m not ready to fully commit.

A Stronger/Slower Solution That Tracks West

The other possibility is that the storm tracks more NE than ENE and moves over or just west of the benchmark. This would result in a stronger storm that arrives later and drops more snow. With some reputable guidance on board, I’m not throwing this one out yet observations and satellite imagery aren’t completely favoring it. Should this pan out, the coast would see 4-8″, inland/foothill areas 2-4″ and the mountains a coating-2″. Snow would arrive late Sunday night but would last through midday Monday as bands of snow moved onshore. Winds would also become a concern with this solution but the storm doesn’t look to be close enough or get strong enough for serious blowing/drifting.

What I Think Will Happen

Here’s how I think things go down. I think the storm moves over or just outside the benchmark as it slowly strengthens. The bomb solutions of yesterday seem far-fetched based on latest guidance as well as observations. Light snow moves in Sunday night and lasts through Monday midday with light snow becoming moderate at times along the coast. The map at left shows what I expect accumulations to be. Remember, this is highly track/intensity dependent. A shift west in guidance and upper level features appearing stronger in observations will cause this map to be adjusted upward. A shift east in guidance and upper level features appearing weaker in observations will cause this map to be adjusted downward.

I’ll have another update tomorrow evening.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Hope you all enjoyed the spring/summer like warmth because it’s taking a little time off over the next week. This begins today with the passage of an Arctic front currently located over the mountains. This will drop south today and behind it, winter makes a valiant return. Look for highs to occur in the morning hours before the cold air can really get here. Highs will range from the 30’s north to low 40’s south. Skies will be partly cloudy, more clouds when the front works through this morning. There is the chance for some light rain/snow this morning especially away from the coast though everyone is at risk for some drops or flakes. No accumulation is expected aside maybe from the far northern mountains.

I’ll have an update on our Sunday/Monday storm this evening.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature the spring/summer part of this week’s forecast as thunderstorms look to develop as very cold air moves in aloft. Morning fog will be clearing through the mid to late morning hours and showers look to begin popping up as the afternoon approaches. Showers will strengthen into thunderstorms which could feature small hail and gusty winds. Some of these storms could approach severe limits and the SPC has placed us under a Marginal threat for severe weather today. While things don’t look too intense, do keep an eye to the sky and be weather aware today. Highs will range through the 50’s and low 60’s with warmer temps south.

While uncertainties do still run rampant, I wanted to put out there that we could be seeing significant snow come Sunday night should a coastal storm pass close enough. I’ll have an update on that tonight but please don’t fall for any hype that will likely be running around in the meantime. As always, check with local media/NWS before changing any plans for Sunday night into Monday.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Yesterday’s little storm has moved out this morning and in its wake we are seeing clearing skies as dry air moves in. Look for clearing to be slow but steady today and by evening, most should have seen at least partial sun as temps rise into the low 50’s north and upper 50’s south.

Another round of snow/mix/rain is incoming tonight through Friday and will be showery in nature.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature rain for most as low pressure develops offshore. Look for steady to heavy rain beginning in the next hour across southern areas. Rain will spread north and east this morning with everyone seeing some precip by around noon. The coast will see the heaviest rain which could amount to over an inch by the time all is said and done. Winds could become breezy out of the E/NE today as well leading to a raw feel to things. Top it all off with temps in the 40’s and today looks much more like the Maine Marches we know and love. Farther north, things get a little more interesting. Temps are below freezing as cold air remains entrenched. Winds are already turning NE as coastal low pressure exerts its influence more than the inland low. As this happens and winds turn more northerly, cold air will be drawn south out of Canada to reinforce existing cold air. Winds in Fryeburg this hour are already out of the north and most of NH is reporting N/NE winds. Add to that a little dynamic cooling as some heavier precip moves in, and we will likely be looking at a flip back to snow later this morning/this afternoon. Accumulations will likely be light, in the coating-2″ range, but that combined with last night’s snow combined with this morning’s sleet/freezing rain will lead to slick roads throughout the day today mainly north of route 2.

Another round of snow/sleet is likely mid/late week. More details on that tomorrow.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature morning sunny breaks fading to afternoon clouds as our next storm rolls in. Look for temps to be a bit cooler today as Canadian high pressure builds in and winds turn N/NE. Precip should arrive late this afternoon/early this evening in the form of snow north and mixed precip south. Mixed precip will quickly flip to rain south but snow will remain locked in up north mixing with sleet and freezing rain at times. I’ll have more details this evening. Temps today won’t move too much past 40 in the south and 30 in the north as cold air is locked in today.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature mainly clear skies, warm temps, and gusty winds as high pressure tries to move into the area. Look for winds gusting to near 30 mph as the pressure gradient strengthens. Highs today will be warm despite NW winds and temps will rise to near 60 in the south with 50’s north. Clear skies are expected for all as drier air moves in.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today’s weather will be brought to you by an area of high pressure crossing the region and a weak cold front approaching the region from the west. The high will keep things mainly sunny while the approaching cold front will draw warm air up from the south. The combination will result in a warm sunny day with highs in the 50’s north and 60’s south.

-Jack