Today will feature the development of strong to severe thunderstorms as a cold front and associated upper level impulse moves through. This activity will be focused in the afternoon hours in the south western parts of the region though everyone is at risk for a storm or two.
The showers and isolated rumble you may experience this morning has to do with a lead disturbance racing out ahead of the main storm. It should quickly move through and sun should redevelop following its passage. The more quickly you see sun, the higher your odds are for severe weather this afternoon. This is because we will need an unstable atmosphere for the development of strong storms. Instability today will be brought to you by the sun warming the lowest level of the atmosphere while the upper atmosphere stays nice and chilly. The sun appears to be making good progress and confidence is fairly high that it will make it in time for sufficient destabilization.
There will be a period of time later this morning into the early afternoon where fairly good weather can be expected. This will be following the morning showers but prior to the development of the afternoon storms. Look for warm and muggy conditions to develop at this time, between roughly 9 and 2. As we head deeper into the afternoon, showers and storms will begin to fire.
Here is the HRRR simulated radar for 3PM this afternoon showing strong showers and storms across the area. I don’t know that I buy the strongest storms being in NE areas, the best dynamics look to be combined over SW areas as higher dewpoints, and thus more moisture, will be available for storms to tap. For this reason, the SPC slight risk (a 2 on a 5 point scale) encompasses only SW ME and southern NH while the rest of the area is under a marginal risk (a 1 on a 5 point scale). Due to the higher availability of fuel for storms in SW areas, I expect activity to be clustered there though everyone is at risk for rumbles this afternoon and anyone planning on being outdoors should be prepared to seek shelter quickly.
Temps will rise into the mid 60’s north and mid 70’s south today.
More showers/storms are likely tomorrow and a wetting rain could make a return this weekend.