Showers And Storms Possible Tomorrow, Heavy Rain Misses South

Hello everyone!

Showers and storms are ongoing across the region today with just a few managing to reach severe status with small hail and gusty winds. Showers and storms will diminish through the evening hours as we lose daytime heating. Some residual rumbles are possible through early tonight in southern areas but no severe weather is expected. The cold front responsible for today’s storms will settle just to our south tonight and low pressure will develop along it before scooting ENE tomorrow. Just like a winter snowstorm, there will be a sharp northern edge to the heavy precip where one town could see upwards of 2″ of rain while the next town over ends up with maybe a quarter inch. As of now, it looks like Maine will end up on the dry side of this line while MA, CT, and RI end up on the wet side. The battleground will be between Manchester NH and Boston MA. Those areas could go either way.

This Morning's 500mb Analysis Showing A Broadly Zonal Pattern. Image Credit: Meteocentre
This Morning’s 500mb Analysis Showing A Broadly Zonal Pattern. Image Credit: Meteocentre

The reason that heavy rain is not expected is that upper level winds are unfavorable for steering moisture to us. There is a disturbance currently located over Eastern Canada (northern blue line) that will move east tonight. Behind it, there will be WNW winds aloft. Those WNW winds will guide the disturbance with all the moisture (southern blue line) well to our south. We will still likely see at least a little bit of rain but no big flooding storms are in the forecast.

12Z 4km NAM Showing How Things Could Play Out With Rain Tomorrow. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z 4km NAM Showing How Things Could Play Out With Rain Tomorrow. Image Credit: Weatherbell

The mountains are likely to stay mostly dry though a stray shower sparked by daytime heating cannot be ruled out. Along the coast, showers will be more numerous with a brief period of steady light to moderate rain possible. The heavy rain will be reserved for far southern New England with southern CT, MA, and RI possibly seeing up to 3″ of rain. Some guidance indicates we could miss out all together with only the chance for showers along the coast and nothing north. Right now, I’d plan on some drops tomorrow but a washout doesn’t look likely.

Drier and cooler weather is likely to move in Saturday and there’s the chance for more wet weather next week though that remains highly uncertain.

-Jack

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