Today will feature downright hot temps, oppressive humidity, and the chance for a strong thunderstorm. Temps are currently in the 60’s but will quickly soar into the upper 80’s to low 90’s as SW winds bring hot, humid air into the area. A cold front will be pushing into the area from the west this afternoon and some showers and storms are likely to develop out ahead of it. This risk appears to be small and localized as there are indications that the setup isn’t quite as robust as initially forecast.
Water Vapor imagery this morning highlights why I don’t see widespread severe storms in our future today. A disturbance aloft is currently causing showers over northern and western areas. I highlighted this on the map with the purple line. This disturbance will race off to the NE today and may cause some storms over Atlantic Canada. Behind this disturbance, two things are happening that will limit storm development. First, dry air is moving in aloft. Some mid level dry air is good for storms (but that’s a long story), however too much dry air will limit their development. Also of note is that there doesn’t appear to be another substantial upper level disturbance to trigger storms.
With the absence of a strong upper level trigger, we then look to the surface for a frontal system that could trigger storms. Our cold front this morning is quite unimpressive with no major temp drop behind it and only a subtle wind shift. This further lowers confidence in widespread storms. Morning cloudiness that will limit instability is another factor working against big storms. That being said, we do still have the risk for some storms this afternoon and evening. They will be scattered in nature and either you get one or you don’t. The risk for storms will be greater the farther NW you go in the area with the mountains most likely to see storms. Any storms that do form have the risk to become severe with damaging winds and small hail. This risk is even more isolated but it is something to be aware of as you go about your day. These storms are nothing to cancel plans or panic over but do be prepared to duck for cover if you’re heading into the great outdoors this afternoon.
The heat and humidity sticks around into early next week with more storms possible both tomorrow, Monday, and Tuesday. No cool weather is expected in the next 7 days.