Hello everyone!

Showers and storms are ongoing across the region today with just a few managing to reach severe status with small hail and gusty winds. Showers and storms will diminish through the evening hours as we lose daytime heating. Some residual rumbles are possible through early tonight in southern areas but no severe weather is expected. The cold front responsible for today’s storms will settle just to our south tonight and low pressure will develop along it before scooting ENE tomorrow. Just like a winter snowstorm, there will be a sharp northern edge to the heavy precip where one town could see upwards of 2″ of rain while the next town over ends up with maybe a quarter inch. As of now, it looks like Maine will end up on the dry side of this line while MA, CT, and RI end up on the wet side. The battleground will be between Manchester NH and Boston MA. Those areas could go either way.

The reason that heavy rain is not expected is that upper level winds are unfavorable for steering moisture to us. There is a disturbance currently located over Eastern Canada (northern blue line) that will move east tonight. Behind it, there will be WNW winds aloft. Those WNW winds will guide the disturbance with all the moisture (southern blue line) well to our south. We will still likely see at least a little bit of rain but no big flooding storms are in the forecast.

The mountains are likely to stay mostly dry though a stray shower sparked by daytime heating cannot be ruled out. Along the coast, showers will be more numerous with a brief period of steady light to moderate rain possible. The heavy rain will be reserved for far southern New England with southern CT, MA, and RI possibly seeing up to 3″ of rain. Some guidance indicates we could miss out all together with only the chance for showers along the coast and nothing north. Right now, I’d plan on some drops tomorrow but a washout doesn’t look likely.

Drier and cooler weather is likely to move in Saturday and there’s the chance for more wet weather next week though that remains highly uncertain.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature warm temps, increasing clouds, and the chance for afternoon showers and storms. Showers and storms will begin to develop this afternoon over the mountains before moving south east across the area heading into this evening. They likely will be weakening as they approach the coast later this evening. The window for storms looks to be 1PM-12AM from NW to SE. Some storms could be strong but no widespread severe weather is likely. That being said, a stray strong wind gust or a few small hailstones cannot be completely ruled out. The greatest threat for any marginally severe storms will be in the northern mountains.

Here’s how one model thinks it could play out this afternoon/evening. Look for scattered storms drifting slowly towards the coast. As I said, no widespread severe weather is expected but it doesn’t take severe wind or hail to make storms dangerous. Lightning is as big a threat as any so when thunder roars, go indoors.

Highs will rise into the 80’s for most with some upper 70’s along the coast and in the far north. A sea breeze does look likely to develop this afternoon but otherwise, light southerly/south westerly winds are expected.

More showers and storms are likely tomorrow.

-Jack