Hello everyone!

Both temps and humidity will bottom out tonight for the forseeable future and we will be on an upward trajectory for the rest of the week, reaching the low 90’s in SW areas by Saturday. Saturday will be our peak in terms of both heat and humidity with upper 80’s to low 90’s in terms of temps and dew points in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. For all those who are anxiously watching the Beach to Beacon forecast, it does not look like great running weather. If you do happen to be running, feel free to say hi post race in the nearest part of the ocean. I’ll be running too. 

The temp/dew point trace looks basically the same as it did yesterday (this is a new graph, I promise!). The theme of the next seven days will be warming to storms Saturday before cooling heading into next week. Rain will be possible Thursday and Friday afternoons in the form of widely scattered storms especially in the mountains. More widespread showers/storms are possible Saturday before scattered showers return to the mountains Sunday and then everyone stays dry into Monday. Ignore that the GFS has little rain Saturday and more Sunday, there appear to be some issues with it’s convective parameterization. I used the graphic more to illustrate the temp theme and when rain was possible.

A cold front will be drifting our way Saturday as an upper level low drifts over Northern Quebec. The pattern aloft does not support widespread severe weather as there is little upper level energy (left panel) in our area when the cold front is arriving (surface map on right). The greatest uncertainty remains with the timing of this front. The lack of strong upper level energy to push the front along makes me want to lean a little slower on the front meaning it would likely come through Saturday evening from NW to SE. Some guidance has it moving through earlier in the day Saturday but as I said, I would lean a little slower for now.

Cool, dry air will be carried in on breezy NW winds Sunday which will introduce the typical upslope/downslope regime with clouds and showers in the mountains and sunny skies to the SE. Cooler and drier weather is expected to continue into the early part of next week.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature mainly sunny skies, slightly warmer temps, and the continued need for the raincoat/umbrella to be on standby. Look for high temps in the 70’s for most with a few low 80’s possible across SW NH. Much sunnier skies are expected today with just partly cloudy skies expected. The exception to this will be Southern NH and where a band of showers is currently moving through along with some overcast skies.

As for precip, there will be two phases. The first phase will primarily be to our south over MA, CT, and RI where a band of showers and thunderstorms has brought some minor flooding to Springfield MA. The northern edge of that will clip Southern NH and perhaps the southern tip of York County but will otherwise remain safely south of us. The other impact that will stretch only slightly farther north will be some clouds which should move out by mid to late morning.

The second phase of precip will arrive in the form of pop up showers this afternoon. This morning’s HRRR run does a good job of showing that at any one time, most places stay dry while only a few see rain. This means that outdoor plans are a go if you’re prepared to either duck inside for 5 minutes or get a little wet should a shower find your favorite recreational spot. No storms are expected.

Expect a warming trend through late week with stifling heat and humidity returning for Friday and Saturday before storms Saturday evening usher in cool, Canadian air for the beginning of next week.

-Jack