Slowly Warming This Week

Hello everyone!

Both temps and humidity will bottom out tonight for the forseeable future and we will be on an upward trajectory for the rest of the week, reaching the low 90’s in SW areas by Saturday. Saturday will be our peak in terms of both heat and humidity with upper 80’s to low 90’s in terms of temps and dew points in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. For all those who are anxiously watching the Beach to Beacon forecast, it does not look like great running weather. If you do happen to be running, feel free to say hi post race in the nearest part of the ocean. I’ll be running too. 

12Z GFS With An Overview Of This Week's Weather
12Z GFS With An Overview Of This Week’s Weather

The temp/dew point trace looks basically the same as it did yesterday (this is a new graph, I promise!). The theme of the next seven days will be warming to storms Saturday before cooling heading into next week. Rain will be possible Thursday and Friday afternoons in the form of widely scattered storms especially in the mountains. More widespread showers/storms are possible Saturday before scattered showers return to the mountains Sunday and then everyone stays dry into Monday. Ignore that the GFS has little rain Saturday and more Sunday, there appear to be some issues with it’s convective parameterization. I used the graphic more to illustrate the temp theme and when rain was possible.

An Early Peek At Saturday's Storm Potential From The 12Z GFS
A Peek At Saturday’s Storm Potential From The 12Z GFS

A cold front will be drifting our way Saturday as an upper level low drifts over Northern Quebec. The pattern aloft does not support widespread severe weather as there is little upper level energy (left panel) in our area when the cold front is arriving (surface map on right). The greatest uncertainty remains with the timing of this front. The lack of strong upper level energy to push the front along makes me want to lean a little slower on the front meaning it would likely come through Saturday evening from NW to SE. Some guidance has it moving through earlier in the day Saturday but as I said, I would lean a little slower for now.

Cool, dry air will be carried in on breezy NW winds Sunday which will introduce the typical upslope/downslope regime with clouds and showers in the mountains and sunny skies to the SE. Cooler and drier weather is expected to continue into the early part of next week.

-Jack

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