A Mainly Warm Week Ahead

Hello everyone!

Warm But Not Hot Temps This Evening Along With Light Winds.
Warm Temps This Evening Along With Light Winds Making For A Lovely Summer Evening

Another lovely summer day on the coast of Maine is coming to an end and for better or for worse, we have many more lined up in the coming week. Highs today rose into the low to mid 80’s and with sunny skies and light winds, it was picture perfect. The one issue with such lovely weather is that we’re not making any progress in erasing our 3-6″+ rainfall deficit across southern areas. At this point, we really need a week of good steady rains to replenish water supplies. Sadly, as of now, we do not appear to have such an opportunity in the next 7-10 days.

Screenshot_176
12Z NAM Projected Highs Tomorrow. Credit: Weatherbell

Look for a nearly carbon copy of today tomorrow with only slightly warmer temps and only slightly higher humidity. A shower or two could pop up tomorrow across the northern half of the area but as with today, mainly dry conditions are expected. As I mentioned earlier, while it will be lovely for outdoor activities, we really do need the rain.

Friday will feature increasing clouds, heat, and humidity as a cold front begins to near. More isolated showers and storms are possible north and west but another mainly dry day is in the forecast. Highs will climb to near 90 for most with cooler temps in the north and along the coast.

12Z GFS Showing A Fast Front And Little Instability. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing A Fast Front And Little Instability. Image Credit: Weatherbell

Saturday has the chance to be our most active day of the next 7 as a cold front crosses the area. The timing of the front remains more or less up in the air and when exactly it crosses the region will play a big part in determining if we have a shot at strong to severe storms or not. The later in the day the front crosses, the better chance we have for strong storms. If the front crosses in the morning, look for just showers and maybe an isolated rumble. If the front crosses in the afternoon, scattered showers and storms are likely.

12Z NAM Showing A Slow Front And Plenty Of Instability. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z NAM Showing A Slow Front And Plenty Of Instability. Image Credit: Weatherbell

If the front waits until the late evening to begin entering western ME and NH, a fairly widespread severe weather day is possible. The upper level dynamics (trigger and organizer) look solid, the biggest question is instability which is why the timing of the front is so important. You can see how a difference of 6 hours between the GFS (upper map) and the NAM (lower map) means the difference between tons of instability and big storms, and nothing at all. I’ll continue to analyze the pattern in the coming days and see if I can figure out exactly when that front will show up on our doorstep.

12Z GFS Showing Breezy NW Winds Drawing Cool, Dry Air In From Canada. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing Breezy NW Winds Drawing Cool, Dry Air In From Canada. Image Credit: Weatherbell

Sunday will bring the chance for a spot shower as some upper level energy rotates through. Cooler and drier air will be filtering in during this time on breezy NW winds. The cool, dry air will stick around for Monday and Tuesday, both of which look awesome. The comfortable weather doesn’t last long as developing SW flow looks to bring more heat and humidity as we head into the middle and latter parts of next week.

12Z GFS Showing The Pattern For The Latter Half Of Next Week. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing The Pattern For The Latter Half Of Next Week. Image Credit: Weatherbell

As we’ve seen several times this summer so far, the only way to kick big heat out of New England is to bring some boomahs in so we’ll be watching for possible severe weather when that heat breaks in a couple weeks. Until then, enjoy the cool weather while it’s here, and keep cool when it’s hot. The dog days of summer are here so hit the beach while you can, winter is right around the corner and by the end of next month, snow will have sat on the slopes of Sunday River. We live in Maine, after all.

-Jack

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s