Today will feature a cool and mainly sunny start before clouds move in this afternoon and evening. Showers will approach from the west as well today but with the exception of some showers currently drifting through SW NH, the rain should hold off until the late afternoon and evening hours. Some fog is being reported across Southern NH and coastal ME this morning but that should clear out by mid morning.
Most of the rain that will fall from this storm will fall overnight tonight. Guidance continues to point to the axis of QPF being just to the north of the area. This is supported by the pattern shifting to become more amplified. This means that we will likely miss out on the heaviest rain. It also means that more of the southern part of the area will get into the warm sector which would support a more widespread thunderstorm threat. The SPC in its latest outlook has increased the risk for severe thunderstorms in Southern NH and far SW ME. I don’t fully believe we will see severe thunderstorms because there is a strong lack of instability. That being said, anyone south of the warm front this evening (Southern NH and perhaps York County ME), will be at risk for some marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado spinup. There is enough low level turning for a brief spinup and despite the lack of instability, the threat is still deserving of passing mention. Be aware, have a plan, and heed any warnings that are issued.
Highs today will range through the 70’s for most with a few low 80’s possible over SW NH.
I’ll have more this evening on both the storms tonight as well as next weekend’s heavy rain threat and more details on the rest of the week.