Slowly Warming This Week Before Some Scattered Showers Thursday Night

Hello everyone!

This week will be quiet weatherwise as high pressure remains either overhead or in close proximity. Look for slowly warming temps peaking Thursday before a weak front brings slightly cooler and drier weather for the weekend. The front will bring some scattered showers Thursday night and that’s pretty much our only chance for precip in the coming week. Another front may approach in about a week’s time but that remains uncertain.

3:00 PM Observations Verifying Today's Forecast
3:00 PM Observations Verifying Today’s Forecast

Today’s forecast worked out about as well as they do around here. Sunny skies ruled as expected with only a few fair weather clouds in the north. Temps stayed in between 70 and 80 and light NW breezes kept the dry air coming. I suppose no forecast is ever perfect, but today’s got pretty close! As you well know though, that’s not bound to last long and I’m sure we’ll have some more tricky weather in not too long as winter begins its slow invasion.

12Z GFS Showing A Weak Upper Level Setup Thursday Night. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing A Weak Upper Level Setup Thursday Night. Image Credit: Weatherbell

Our next chance for precip arrives Thursday night as a weak front drifts in our general direction. All the upper level energy associated with this storm will be to our north and all the storms therefore will be too. However, there will be that weak front which could touch off some isolated showers. These should be widely scattered with most of them located in the north, closest to the upper level energy.

12Z 4km NAM Showing An Unimpressive Setup Thursday Evening. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z 4km NAM Showing An Unimpressive Setup Thursday Evening. Image Credit: Weatherbell

Here’s the 4km NAM with a look at what the radar could look like. Based off of the upper level pattern, I think even this looks a bit overdone as far as precip goes but notice the big storms way up in Canada with only widely scattered showers near us. This is not looking like a super impressive event by any measure. It will all clear out Friday leaving warm and dry conditions for the weekend.

12z GFS Showing Warm And Dry Conditions Next Weekend. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12z GFS Showing Warm And Dry Conditions Next Weekend. Image Credit: Weatherbell

Not a whole lot of excitement as we head into the extended forecast. High pressure is locked in at least through early next week with, guess what, more warm and dry conditions. A weak front could approach by the middle of next week but looking at how strong the Bermuda high looks to be during that time, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that shear out to the north following in the footsteps of the front on Thursday night.

While we sit in the epitome of weather boredom here in Maine, the tropics are putting on a show with TS Gaston forecast to become a major hurricane in the next few days. It is forecast to swing way out to sea but it will send some swells in our direction. Those look to start arriving here Sunday. Surf’s up!

-Jack

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