Very Active Pattern Incoming

Hello everyone!

We’re now locked into what looks to be an extremely active pattern for cold and snow with today’s system wrapping up tonight, a clipper system bringing light to moderate snow Saturday, a coastal storm potentially bringing a major snowstorm Monday, and another coastal storm threatening in about a week. I’ll go over what we know, what we don’t know, and some of the mechanics behind each storm below. Welcome back to winter!

HRRR Model Showing Snow Winding Down This Evening. Credit: Weatherbell
HRRR Model Showing Snow Winding Down This Evening. Credit: Weatherbell

The current storm will wind down this evening as the coastal storm moves offshore. Here’s a simulation of what that will likely look like from the HRRR model. There was plenty of mesoscale banding today, for some of the science behind that phenomenon, check out my post from this afternoon. An additional several inches of snow are expected before things wind down later this evening. Gusty NW winds will bring in very cold temps for tonight and tomorrow resulting in very low (subzero) wind chills and the continued threat for blowing/drifting snow.

18Z NAM Showing Light Snow Saturday Afternoon. Image Credit: Weatherbell
18Z NAM Showing Light Snow Saturday Afternoon. Image Credit: Weatherbell

Light snow will develop early Saturday morning and will continue through the day. Snow will be light for most but a little coastal front/mesoscale low pressure system will likely enhance snowfall along the coast. Most folks will end up with 1-3″ though the coast is likely to see 2-4″. With the fluff factor in place due to cold air, there’s an outside chance someone ends up with 6″ but that seems unlikely at the moment. Snow will taper off Saturday night.

12Z GFS Showing An Upper Level Setup Favorable For Rapid Intensification Monday. Image Credit: Accuweather
12Z GFS Showing An Upper Level Setup Favorable For Rapid Intensification Monday. Image Credit: Accuweather

Our next system will take shape Sunday night into Monday. Considerable uncertainty still exists though if current forecasts from guidance verified, we would be in for a major snowstorm. All the typical threats are looking likely with heavy snow, high winds, and coastal flooding all on the table. This storm has the potential to rival some of the blizzards of the past few years so stay tuned to the latest updates as confidence increases. Of course it wouldn’t take much of a change in the timing of a couple disturbances to result in a much more benign event though at the moment that looks unlikely.

Depending on the intensity of the system, snow could linger into Tuesday before moving out. We’ll have a break for most of the day Tuesday before another storm threatens for Wednesday into Thursday. With such a chaotic pattern, it’s far too early for amounts but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on as our active pattern rolls on!

Various Teleconnections Showing Active Weather Continuing For The Next 2 Weeks And Possibly Beyond. Images From CPC.
Various Teleconnections Showing Active Weather Continuing For The Next 2 Weeks And Possibly Beyond. Images From CPC.

Looking farther out into the future, the pattern across both the tropics (MJO, top left) and the Northern Hemisphere (PNA, AO, NAO, right column) show a pattern favorable for New England snowstorms though at least the next two weeks. While it’s impossible to pin down individual threats past 7 days and it’s entirely possible that for any given threat the pieces don’t come together just right for a major (or even minor) storm, it does look like we’re in for a good little ride as we let the rest of February go by. Buckle up and enjoy the show!

I sadly will be preoccupied tomorrow evening with a most unworthy pastime (5 hour indoor track meet, ugh!) but I’ll have more this weekend.

-Jack

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