I’m a third-year atmospheric science student at Cornell University who has been blogging about the weather since 2011. While I’m not officially a meteorologist, I have accumulated a bit of experience forecasting both local weather (in western Maine and New Hampshire) as well as national/international weather during my time writing for weather.us and weathermodels.com. I also have experience programming in Python, teaching concepts in weather forecasting, and communicating forecast information to general audiences.
Today will feature mainly cloudy skies and the chance for snow as a weak storm passes offshore and drags behind it an inverted trough. All the storms in play here (clipper, redeveloped coastal, upper level) are quite weak and disorganized so the snow will be as well, arriving in the form of light snow showers/flurries. Accumulations will generally remain under 2″ with the exception of the mountains and possibly the midcoast where up to 3″ could fall. Highs will range from the low to mid 20’s north to the low 30’s south.
I thought I’d take a minute this evening to go over the next week or so of weather taking a quick look at what to expect. This will be a tale of a classic New England winter with snow, bitter cold, and the potential for a sizeable storm. Let’s start with the light snow which arrives tomorrow.
A storm will pass well offshore tomorrow but an upper low still lurks to our west. Much like with our last storm, there will be a moisture transfer between the two storms. However, both storms will be weaker this time around especially the offshore storm (weak wave compared to powerful bomb). Therefore, the same concept applies but with less snow. Spotty snow showers will impact most but they will be hit or miss. The midcoast could get brushed with a bit of steadier light snow. A coating-2″ is forecast for everyone but 3″ is possible in the mountains and along the midcoast.
Bitter Cold For Valentines Day
12Z GFS Showing VERY Cold Air Over The Region Sunday. Credit: Weatherbell
An Arctic front blasts south Saturday and frigid winds bring in very cold air behind it. Lows Sunday morning are likely to drop well below zero into the 20’s below up north and the 10’s below in the south. The map shows temps at 5,000 feet so don’t panic with the -30C temps across Maine but do realize this is the real deal with dangerous cold on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will struggle to get above zero across Maine and New Hampshire and probably won’t in the mountains. The coldest air arrives just in time for Valentines Day so plan accordingly. Thankfully, the brutal cold moves on heading into next week though it does leave us a parting gift in the form of a storm threat.
Snow Threat Returns Next Week
12Z GEFS Showing The Threat For A Snow Event Next Week
As the bitter cold retreats, a storm will likely try to form somewhere. At this point, all solutions are on the table from Rain to OTS though the general consensus is for some type of snow event. This is too far out for specifics but just know that at some point in the middle of next week, there could be a snow event.
Today will feature morning snow as our storm pulls away. Look for only another dusting to as much as an inch more in terms of accumulation. Highs will struggle to hit 20 up north with mid 20’s south. Clouds look to stick around though as another storm organizes to our south and passes well offshore. No impacts are expected from that. Our next chance for significant snow arrives late week into next weekend out ahead of a powerful Arctic blast.
Snow is currently falling across the region with light to moderate being the dominant intensity. Look for this to continue through the night along with high winds that will blow the snow into a low visibility, drift inducing frenzy. Amounts in your front yard will range from 0-24″ when drifts are included. The actual amount of snow that will fall from the sky is likely to be in the 4-8″ range along the coast and in the 2-4″ range inland though with drifts, amounts will be far different when you look outside tomorrow morning.
HRRR Model Showing The Evolution Of Light Snow Tonight Through Early Tomorrow Morning. Credit: Weatherbell.
Here is the HRRR model with a general idea on the evolution of the snow through tomorrow morning. I suspect it may be a little quick to shut off the snow as the upper low to our west will be eager to continue pulling in moisture. I think mid to late morning is a more reasonable stop time with drying from SW to NE.
Snowfall amounts from last night still look good with 4-8″ for most, 2-4″ in the mountains.
Snow showers are possible throughout the week as waves of low pressure develop well offshore. Another chance for respectable snow arrives early in the weekend next weekend followed by a blast of truly Arctic air early next week.
Everything is lining up as forecast and a long duration light snow event is likely today. Snow looks to arrive around noon here in Maine, a little earlier along the coast, and a little later inland towards the mountains. Not much has changed since yesterday in terms of expected snowfall. I still think the coast has the best shot at hefty snowfall amounts. Keep in mind, snow will be able to accumulate quite efficiently despite snow never falling that heavily. The good news with the light snow is that it will be easily moved by your shovel. The bad news is that it will be equally easily moved by the strong winds today that will gust along the coast to near or over 30mph. As a result, expect blowing and drifting of the snow not only that is just falling, but also of the 6″+ of snowpack most coastal areas have left over from Friday’s storm. This is likely to cause visibility issues especially for the evening commute.
HRRR Model Showing Heavy Snow Remaining South But Light Snow Impacting Maine Today. Credit: Weatherbell
Here is the HRRR model just to give you an idea of how the storm plays out in general. Don’t take it word for word in terms of individual bands or timing down to 15 minutes but look at it to get the general idea of the heavy stuff remaining south and the light stuff sitting over us for a while.
Temps today will be in the 10’s and 20’s.
Snow winds down tomorrow afternoon though snow showers will continue through Thursday as various pieces of energy rotate around an upper trough to our west.
A powerful storm is bombing out over the ocean near the Carolinas this evening and we will be on the far western edge. At the same time, a complex upper low is diving SE across the upper Midwest. They will form a connection of sorts that will transport warm moist air over the cold air moving in tonight following today’s cold front.
12Z GFS Showing Mositure Connection Between Clipper And Coastal Storm. Image Credit: Accuweather
The coastal monster will stay mainly offshore but it will throw a ton of moisture back to the NW. There is a clipper to the NW which is ready to receive this moisture and will help draw it back NW. Bottom line: there will be a feed of moisture over the area tomorrow as moisture from the coastal low gets pulled back into the clipper. If you watched my video discussing the Friday storm, you know that we need three things for snow: moisture, cold, and lift. We got the cold today with that Arctic front and above is the moisture. The problem though is the lift.
12Z GFS Model Showing Broad But Light Lift Tomorrow Evening. Image Credit: Accuweather
As the warm air providing the moisture rises up and over the cold air at the surface we got today, it will rise, cool, and condense into precip. Sometimes, this mechanism for forcing (getting air to rise) can be quite effective in producing heavy precip. Not so much this time. If you’ve followed along for a while, you’ll know that I use Vertical Velocity to show how much air is rising and thus how heavy precip will be. In the big storms, you’ll often see bright purples and reds (notice scale on right of image). This time, we see yellows and oranges. This is indication that there will be less mesoscale banding and more broad lighter precip. Therefore, look for lighter snow though it will last long enough for fairly heavy accumulations.
This snow will be light and dry which is nice for shoveling but will be unfortunate because the gusty winds will have no problem blowing around the light, fluffy snow. For this reason, expect blowing and drifting snow to cause visibility issues especially tomorrow afternoon (map valid 1PM tomorrow). Winds are likely to range from near calm in the mountains to over 30mph at the coast.
Here’s what I expect in terms of total snowfall. Keep in mind, this falls over a near 30 hour period from late morning tomorrow through Tuesday afternoon. Slow and steady is the name of the game for this one.
Today will feature more clouds especially north as an Arctic cold front powers through the region. To our north, Northern Maine has seen some fairly intense snow squalls with up to an inch of snow falling in under an hour. Dynamics in our area aren’t quite that impressive but low visibility or even brief whiteouts are possible in the mountains today with accumulations of a dusting to as much as 2″. Flurries could make it to the coast but as north west winds puck up, I expect downsloping to dry the air out enough so that flurries would be the most expected. Temps will range greatly across the region with the northern mountains not getting much above 25 as cold air drives south. Southern areas however are likely to see temps rise into the balmy category with highs in the low 40’s. Snow arrives tomorrow as a massive storm brushes by to the east. I’ll have an update on that this evening.
Today will feature temperate conditions, not too cold, not too warm, just right. Look for mainly sunny skies with the exception being the mountains where a few more clouds are possible. Highs will rise into the upper 20’s north and low to maybe even mid 30’s south. All in all, a lovely day for cleaning up after yesterday’s storm.
Ready for more storminess? We have not one, not two, but three threats for substantial snow in the coming week and each is likely to bring at least light snow. I’ll have more updates on each threat (Monday, Tuesday/Wednesday, and Friday) as they become clearer.
Light rain is currently moving into the area and will quickly change to snow this morning as temps crash. Temps are currently in the mid to upper 30’s however Dew Points are in the mid to upper 20’s. As precip begins to fall, the air becomes saturated and the temperature crashes to the Dew Point. In case that was a little too technical, when the precip starts, the temp falls.
This is the HRRR model showing the evolution of the storm from light rain this morning through heavy snow later this morning through the early afternoon and then light snow tapering to flurries by early evening. Credit: Weatherbell.
Temps will be on the warm side today, generally in the low 30’s so this will be a heavy, wet snow. Winds could kick up a bit this afternoon so a scattered power outage or two wouldn’t be shocking though I think that risk is low.
In terms of amounts, look for 3-6″ along the coast with 4-8″ along the midcoast. The foothills likely see 2-4″ with the mountains getting only a coating-2″.
Snow tapers off this evening setting the stage for cooler air tomorrow. An arctic front blasts through on Sunday which sets up a potentially significant storm early next week. I’ll have more on that as we get closer.
As much as I would LOVE to have a full blog update out right now, school commitments got in the way. In place of the normal update, I did a video update which you can find below. I’ll have a full update tomorrow morning as it would’ve normally appeared tonight. Please watch through to the end for accumulations, I want to explain the factors and the setup before I explain accumulations.
Forecasterjack 