Hello everyone!

Today will feature another day of the same warm and dry conditions. Expect morning fog burning off to afternoon sun with temps ranging through the 80’s warmer south, cooler north. Western areas could see some bonus clouds in the afternoon as a front approaches.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Expect more of the same today weather-wise as temps rise into the 80’s region wide under mostly sunny skies and low humidity. Enjoy the continuation of summer!

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Still not a whole lot to talk about weatherwise today as high pressure remains locked in control of our weather. Expect more sunny skies, relatively low humidity, and warm temps today with highs in the upper 70’s north to the low/mid 80’s south. A few southern NH spots could approach 90.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Again, not too much to say for the forecast today as high pressure remains firmly in control of our weather. Expect sunny skies, low humidity, and temps ranging from the mid 70’s north to low 80’s south. Enjoy it!

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Calm and quiet weather is on tap for the next several days and that starts right now. Highs today look to get up into the mid 70’s north and low 80’s south under sunny skies. Winds could be a tad breezy this morning but that should calm right down heading towards the middle of the day.

Looking ahead, this is basically our weather until Sunday when a cold front looks to move through. Enjoy!

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature one more day of unsettled weather before we set a boringness record over the next few days.

The main rain shield that dropped generally between a third and a half of an inch judging by radar estimates is already well off to our north and east. Our main weather player will now become a strong upper level low currently situated over NY. This upper low is combined with extra cold air aloft which, when on top of warm air at the surface, creates buoyancy and thus instability. This instability will create the threat for daytime heating showers this afternoon. The greatest threat for this is in the mountains but everyone should keep an eye out for some raindrops this afternoon.

Shown above is the HRRR model idea showing scattered showers developing this afternoon with the most intense activity centered around the mountains with southern areas seeing the most sporadic activity. Areas south of the MA Pike should expect to stay dry today while areas south of Portsmouth should expect a sprinkle or two at best. Maine and Northern NH/VT stand the best chance for respectable showers this afternoon.

The boring weather index will rise to record levels tomorrow and continue that way through Sunday when a cold front brings the chance for scattered showers. In the meantime, mid 70’s to low 80’s and sunny skies look to be the rule.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

A super day looks to be on the way in a few hours brought to you by… cool Canadian high pressure. Expect fairly widespread valley fog in the usual spots this morning but this should be quick to dissipate under the morning sun. Sunny skies are likely for most of the day today though high clouds are likely to start streaming in ahead of our next front. There is the chance of a shower in eastern NH by evening.Highs today will be in the mid to upper 70’s region wide, enjoy!

Rain is incoming for tomorrow followed by another nice week of weather. There are hints of a cooldown next weekend.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today looks to be split right down the middle with a wet start and a nice end. Rain is tracking across the area now with a band of heavy rain Skowhegan-Oxford-Manchester NH which is moving south but not before dropping a good amount of rain with radar-indicated totals of over 2″ in spots. This will continue to move east this morning. Farther east, showers continue to push onshore which will provide wet weather until the main band comes.

Rain will begin to move out later this morning as the storm moves offshore. Winds could become quite gusty during this time with coastal areas gusting up to 30 mph and the remainder of the area gusting in the 20mph range.

Skies will then begin to clear out this afternoon with temps rising into the 70’s for most areas. Most areas will be sunny or partly sunny by sundown with the possible exception of far eastern areas.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

*8:45 AM update – the latest trends in high res models as well as radar has been to delay timing a bit for the rain this afternoon. It also doesn’t appear as though the heaviest rain will arrive for most this afternoon/evening but rather this evening and into tonight. Still be watching for a few sprinkles between now and noon before steadier rain looks to move in. Othewise, the forecast is looking on track for today.*

Last night’s front has pushed and stalled just offshore and a wave of low pressure is developing off the Mid Atlantic coast. Showers are moving into Southern New England as well as Southern Vermont and both of these are moving in our direction.

Here is a look at the surface map and radar this morning showing our front, developing low pressure, and the area of rain headed our way in the next few hours.

As you can see above, currently most areas are dry and that looks to continue for most through about 8 AM. Southern NH stands the best chance for some raindrops before then as showers over southern VT move east. For most of the rest of us, thoughts of raindrops should start entering our minds in the 8-9 AM hour. While the widespread rain will likely hold off until later, this is the time when showers could start popping up. While not everyone will see raindrops before 11 AM or so, the threat starts to become umbrella/raincoat worthy around 8. This timing holds most true for areas south of route 2. Up north, there will be much less rain and it is likely to start later, more towards the 3-4 PM hour.Simulated radar from the HRRR model shown below illustrates one possible evolution of the approach of showers to the area this morning.

Steady and heavy rain moves in the afternoon hours and by 4-5 PM, the idea of a deluge should start to enter your mind. While this coastal storm, as early season ones usually are, will be pretty weak and on paper not that impressive (In January we would hardly notice), this storm has a deep tropical connection with roots in the Bahamas and that moisture pipeline will be open for business. Again, this timing holds most true for southern areas. Up north will likely have to wait until the overnight hours before they pick up the heavy rain. Heavy rain will continue through the overnight hours but as Friday approaches, the forecast becomes more uncertain in terms of when exactly the rain clears out. At this point it appears some of the morning hours will be wet and some of the afternoon hours dry. I’ll have more details in tomorrow morning’s update.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today’s forecast does not appear to be that much different from yesterday’s though there are a few important differences. Looking at satellite/radar imagery as well as this morning’s surface analysis, it appears as though there is a cold front off to our west, currently over the Great Lakes and a warm front that enters the coast near the NH/MA border and then extends north and west through NH towards Hanover before becoming less defined into NY and then Quebec.

 There have been a few showers associated with this front, one cluster has already accomplished most of its weakening and is moving through the downeast islands while the other is just crossing the border into northern Somerset county and is also on a weakening trend. While I don’t anticipate too much trouble as this front shifts north, areas north and east of Portland could see a shower or sprinkle later this morning as some daytime heating gets going. 

For most areas this morning, the dominant weather feature will not be the warm front but instead a broad area of sinking air over most of southern/eastern New England. This feature will bring mainly sunny skies to start the day which will allow for temps to once again rise sharply into the upper 80’s/low 90’s, with humidity of course.

The cold front over the Great Lakes will begin its approach towards the region today and by nightfall will likely be in the vicinity of VT. Unlike yesterday, I will (hopefully) not be making the mistake of over-predicting thunderstorm development today. I do think however that everyone has the slight chance for a shower or storm today in a similar format of yesterday’s storms. I’m sure folks west of Concord NH wouldn’t say yesterday’s forecast was a bust. Most towns however do look to stay dry today but do keep an eye to the sky because the risk of getting wet is there.

For the mountains and NH, the front does indeed look to get close enough this evening to provide enough forcing for storms to get off the ground. I’d be looking for storms to begin moving into the area in the vicinity of 4PM and continuing SE from there. Storms will be weakening so severe weather is not anticipated but the mountains should watch out for a few gusty winds in any of the stronger storms that make it this far. Heavy rain will be the threat region wide with any storms that do form.

Mountain storms will be weakening through the evening as daytime heating is lost but are likely to follow the front SE overnight so everyone is likely to get a chance at a late night shower all the way down to the coast before the front moves offshore.

Looking ahead to the end of the week, the front that moves through tonight looks to stall offshore and then a weak but moisture laden storm appears to move along it bringing a heavy rain threat for Thursday evening into Friday.  More details to come in later updates.

-Jack