I’m Jack Sillin, freshman at NYA, snow-lover, enjoyer of the outdoors, and of course, weather geek. My passion for weather began several years ago when I was about six years old on a series of long plane trips while watching countless hours of The Weather Channel. My skills have evolved rapidly in the past few years from excitedly refreshing the radar on the local TV weather page (I’m still guilty of that from time to time…) to waking early to analyze complex charts and graphs every day to produce a forecast. I’m hoping to pursue a career in the NWS someday.
Aside from the weather, I’m a big skier and lover of all things cold and snow. I also like to do many other outdoor activities such as hiking and fishing when the snow is no longer around. I can be reached through twitter @JackSillin and via email at email@example.com.
I have just looked at the models, which are very split on a track solution for this system. The GFS is putting the storm well to the south of New England. Another model the WRF has it slightly farther north with accumulations of a mere inch. The most potent solution is the ECMWF which has a extremely powerful low in the gulf of maine with substantial snow along the coast. We will keep tuning the forecast.
The snowy storm expected to hit thursday night is amounting to something. The snow will accumulate to >1″ at the coast with 1-3 in the Maine foot hills and 2-4 on the upslope sides of many maine and New Hampshire. The storm forecasts for sunday are still being tuned. At this point we can expect some rain and wind at this point we can not tell how much.
The tropics are up to no good again. The only named storm in the atlantic basin is hurricane Rina with 105 mph winds however I think that this is very conservative and it is more likely at cat 3 status with 115 mph winds. Also in the atlantic basin is an area of disturbed weather (97L) the nhc is saying that it has a 20% chance I would put the odds slightly higher at 30%.
This is the incredibly active sat. map. The hurricane in the W. Caribbean is cat. 2 Rina the swirl closer to New England is Storm 2 (see other post) the snowy one. Storm 3 is not there yet, those forecasts are based purely on model guidance.
Well Just as I have started to experiment with this blog I will have a lot to talk about. There was a cold front that passed through last night and will be touching off some brisk NW winds. This will cool things off. That is step 1 in the sequence of unsettled weather. Step 2 includes a strong low passing to the south of New England on thursday into thursday night. With the cold air in place from the front yesterday we very well might get some snow late thursday/thursday night. Step 3 includes a direct hit from a very powerful storm possibly with tropical origins on sunday but this is really far out so we will have to keep fine-tuning the forecast.