Messy Winter Storm To Bring Rain and Snow To The Area Tomorrow Into Monday

Hello everyone!

Special update this evening with the latest on our messy storm system moving into the region tomorrow. The storm track will be to our west meaning we are on the warm side of the storm so there will be a lot of rain. SE winds will be an issue as heavy precip could bring down strong winds just over our heads. Precip will start tomorrow morning and end Monday morning with the heaviest precip falling tomorrow night.

Snow

snow map 1-17

 

There will be two shots of snow with this storm, one at the beginning and one at the end. Very light snow at the beginning could drop a coating-2″ for most places. South of the red dashed line on the map, that’s all the snow that will fall and it will melt pretty quickly with the rain.

gfs verti veloi

On the backside of the storm, intense upward motion, as seen here on the GFS’s vertical velocity map, will cause cold air aloft to be dragged down to the surface through dynamic cooling. All those big fancy words to say that the mountains are likely to see a quick shot of snow Monday morning that could drop an inch or two of snow. ¬†All in all, this won’t be a big snow producer but there will definitely be some flakes flying.

Wind

GFS Lowiejetti

Winds will be another important factor to consider tomorrow night because they will be extremely strong only a few thousand feet up and any heavy bands of precip (there will be a few around) have the potential to bring down those winds. The map above shows the max winds in the lowest 1.5km of the atmosphere and not all of those winds will be mixed down. That being said, things are likely to get gusty along the coast and isolated 35mph wind gusts are possible. Winds die down and shift westerly Monday afternoon.

Rain

NAM total

A general 3/4″ to 1.5″ of rain is expected for areas south of the mountains. The map above shows the total liquid as the NAM sees it which includes snow too. The higher rainfall amounts are likely to be found in the foothills where upsloping begins to take effect. Rain could be heavy at times but flooding concerns are minor as this will be a quick-hitting system and the snowpack should absorb most of the water.

Storm Timeline

Tomorrow Morning

SunAMWarm Air Advection will start late tonight and SW winds will begin to bring in some low level moisture. SE winds at the surface will bring in warmer air and cause the coast to change to rain fairly quickly. The airmass ahead of the storm will be enough to keep inland areas snow to start.

Tomorrow Afternoon

SunPM

SE winds both at the surface and aloft will cause the rain/snow line to collapse inland rapidly tomorrow afternoon. Heavy rain is beginning to organize over SNE as the low passes overhead. The mountains will hang on to the snow the longest, but even there, rain will creep in late in the evening.

Tomorrow Night

SunNight

The peak of the storm will arrive tomorrow night as the low moves overhead. Rain will be tapering off over SNE as the storm moves north and the core of the rain moves to Maine. As the storm intensifies, dynamic cooling will cause the snow line to begin to collapse eastward beginning around 2-3AM. The cold will race the precip as the dry slot works in, beating the end of the precip in the mountains especially in NH. The cold arrives a little late for the foothills and the coast.

Monday Morning

MonAM

Precip will be racing NE Monday morning as the snow line moves SE. NW of Bethel stands the best chance for some accumulation with the back end snows. Winds will calm down and shift to the west as precip moves out Monday afternoon.

-Jack

Weekend Storm Looking Wet, Warm, And Windy

Hello everyone!

Not much weather to talk about today – it will be clear and bitter cold as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs will be generally in the 10’s with some 20’s at the coast.

Our more interesting weather arrives tomorrow evening as low pressure moves in from the west. THe low will redevelop offshore but instead of moving NE and bringing us a snowstorm, it will move due north right through Western Maine this bringing warm and wet conditions… for most.

low track 1-17

Here is where I expect the low pressure system to track. Since the winds around a low pressure system spin counter-clockwise, warm air will have no problem spilling into the area Sunday afternoon. Everyone but the far northern mountains and the White mountains will see rain Sunday afternoon/evening.

As the low strengthens and moves north/northeast early Monday morning, cold air aloft will make its way to the surface through a process known in technical terms as dynamic cooling. Basically, this is when cold air aloft gets dragged down to the surface via heavy precip. One very good way to pinpoint where this will happen is to look at upward motion in the atmosphere.

gfs verti velo

Even though most areas see some rain Sunday evening, it will flip to snow from west to east Sunday night and will become very heavy which means even though surface temps will be marginal (30-35), the mountains should have no problem accumulating if/when they change to snow. Farther south, the rain will be heavy but the cold air aloft will be lacking so most places south of route 2 will miss out on the snow. The exception to that will be the Whites who will stay mostly snow the whole way through as they stick up above the warm layer.

I’ll have another update with the latest data this evening.

-Jack

Cold Front Arrives Today Bringing With It Gusty Winds And Snow Squalls

Hello everyone!

Today will feature the passage of a strong arctic front which will provide a trigger for snow showers and squalls which will move through this morning. Highs for the day are occuring right about now and temps will be falling throughout the day as gusty NW winds bring in colder air. Winds could gust over 40mph and thus wind chils will be a problem as temps get lower. Wind chill warnings are up for the mountains. Our next chance for a storm arrives Sunday night into Monday.

-Jack

Clear, calm, and cold today

Hello everyone!

Today’s forecast can be summed up in one word: cold. With Canadian high pressure in place, expect a mostly sunny day with highs in the single digits above or below 0 in the mountains and in the 10’s at the coast. Brisk northerly winds will make it feel even colder today with widespread subzero wind chills.

today 1-13

-Jack

Light snow and warmer today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature light snow along with temps that will feel absolutely balmy after this past week. Snow is already widespread across the area with some bands of moderate snow moving in from the SW. Expect light to moderate snow to continue throughout the day tapering off this afternoon. Highs will generally be around freezing so this will be a heavier snow compared to what we have seen recently.

today 1-12

If today makes you miss the cold, don’t worry, it will come roaring back tonight and tomorrow with plunging temps and bitter winds. Another mild shot is possible this weekend.

-Jack

Reliably hype-free weather info for Western Maine and New Hampshire from amateur forecaster Jack Sillin

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