Another Day of Quiet Weather

Hello everyone!

Today will feature continued quiet weather as another weak disturbances floats overhead. That disturbance, much like the last few we’ve dealt with this week, will be strong enough to bring clouds and maybe a few mountain flurries/snow showers but nothing more. The best chance of some sun will be found in southern NH today. High temps will range from around 30 in the north to around 40 in southeastern NH.

-Jack

Generally Quiet Weather Continues Again Today

Hello everyone!

Our quiet weather pattern continues to roll along today as weak disturbances pass overhead but fail to produce much in the way of meaningful impacts. This morning’s disturbance has ensured mostly cloudy skies region-wide and has been producing a few snow showers up in the mountains and in the foothills near/west of Augusta. While dustings are possible especially in the higher terrain before this system moves out in the next couple hours, little/no impacts are expected.

In the wake of this system, light NW flow will result in some clearing downwind of the mountains this afternoon. The sunniest spots will be over in southern NH while parts of the Maine coast may hang on to some more clouds. High temps will range from the low 30s up north to the high 30s in southern NH. Clouds will thicken back up this evening ahead of our next weak disturbance which seems likely to bring snow showers back to parts of the mountains tonight.

-Jack

A Bit Cooler and a Bit Cloudier Today

Hello everyone!

A weak disturbance aloft is headed our direction this morning which means that sunshine currently observed over eastern parts of the area will be short-lived. Clouds moving in from the west will keep high temps a bit lower today than they were yesterday, ranging from just below 30 in the north to around 35 in the south. A few flurries may reach the ground up in the mountains late this afternoon into this evening but little to no accumulation is expected.

-Jack

Quiet Weather Continues Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature continued quiet weather as the prevailing storm track remains shifted off to our south. We narrowly missed one ocean storm last night and are slated to narrowly miss another in a couple days. North of these storms, we’re left with mostly dry and clear conditions though there is no Arctic air in sight. So today will be another day of partly to mostly sunny skies, light NW breezes, and temps a little on the warm side of normal. Look for highs ranging from around 30 up north to around 40 in SE NH.

-Jack

Quiet Weather Continues Today

Hello everyone!

Another quiet day of weather is expected today as our pesky ocean storm sends one last disturbance in our direction. This system, in the form of an upper-level low dropping south from Quebec, appears not to have enough moisture to produce much if any precipitation though it will result in some increased clouds this afternoon. Look for mostly sunny skies along the coast and foothills this morning while upslope clouds remain locked against the higher summits. As the afternoon goes on, those clouds should dissipate before being replaced by low/mid level clouds associated with this upper-level low. High temps today will range from the mid/upper 20s up north to the mid 30s along the coastal plain.

Peering into the extended outlook, our next couple chances at snowstorms appear to miss wide right as various upper-level disturbances just couldn’t get into the right place at the right time. This should leave our region experiencing mostly quiet weather for the next week to ten days before another pattern shakeup could produce conditions more favorable for snow.

-Jack

Calm Weather Continues Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature continued quiet weather across the region as our pesky ocean storm drifts ever so slowly farther east. The storm is still responsible for some cloudiness and a few showers/flurries over the region this morning. While the latter should dissipate within the next couple hours, the former are likely to stick around a bit longer. Gradually though, breaks of sun should start to develop from west to east this afternoon. The increased sunshine combined with downsloping from light northwesterly flow will push temps into the mid/upper 30s along the coastal plain this afternoon. Up in the mountains, some residual upsloping and closer proximity to colder air will limit temps to near 30.

-Jack

Generally Cloudy and Generally Calm Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature generally cloudy skies and generally calm weather as the ocean storm we’ve been dealing with for several days continues to spin just off to our east. Morning breaks of sun are likely to give way to overcast skies by this afternoon as the storm sends another surge of moisture in our direction. This surge may be just enough to touch off some flurries over the Midcoast and adjacent parts of the I-95 corridor but accumulations should be limited to a dusting at best. High temps today will range from the mid 20s up north to the mid 30s in southern NH.

-Jack

Distant Ocean Storm Brings Light Wintry Precip Today

Hello everyone!

Today’s weather will be determined mostly by the whims of a powerful ocean storm sitting several hundred miles southeast of the area. This was the storm that we were watching last week for the potential to be a major blizzard. Sadly the ingredients just didn’t come together perfectly this time around but we’re still just close enough to get some light precip as the storm retrogrades into the Gulf of Maine.

Observations and radar imagery this morning show a couple bands of light to perhaps even moderate snow moving from east to west across the area. Between these bands, there isn’t enough upward motion in the atmosphere to produce snowflakes so precipitation is falling as drizzle which, given temps below freezing, will freeze on contact with objects and surfaces. This general pattern seems to be the one which we’ll enjoy for most of the day as the ocean storm completes its loop well to our southeast. Spots that see the most persistent light/moderate snow could end up with 2-4″ while the rest of the area sees a dusting to perhaps an inch or two.

Honestly, the snowfall map I posted back on Sunday, while perhaps a little bullish near/west of Portland and a little bearish up in the mountains near Sugarloaf still doesn’t look so bad this morning.

Most of NH already picked up their dusting-2″ in the first phase of the storm Sunday night so what’s left for today is mostly in Maine. The best shot at seeing over 2″ would be north of Route 1 and along/east of I-95 in the interior Midcoast. Either way, the snow and freezing drizzle will produce some slick spots on the roads so take it slow if you’re headed out and about.

High temps today will be fairly close to where they are now (upper 20s north, low 30s south) as overcast skies limit the amount of solar heating we can generate and neither warm nor cold air is being pushed in our direction by the wind. The best chance for some sunny breaks would be over in central/western NH.

-Jack

Cloudy and Quiet Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature mostly cloudy skies and generally quiet weather as a strong area of low pressure spins just a little too far southeast for us to cash in on its heavy precipitation. Some flurries are noted on radar imagery this morning but overall most should stay dry today. If you do get snow, it shouldn’t accumulate much if any. High temps will be seasonably mild, ranging from the low 30s in the north to the mid 30s along the coast. The best chance for some sunshine today will be over northern and western NH.

-Jack

Another Storm Approaches Today

Hello everyone!

While we’re not even 24 hours removed from our most recent winter storm, we’re less than 24 hours away from kicking off the next one. Today will feature mostly quiet weather ahead of that next storm.

Satellite imagery this morning shows a couple breaks of clear skies especially southeast of the mountains in Maine. Whatever glimpse you get of the sun this morning will be short-lived as clouds push into the region from the southwest ahead of the next storm. Those clouds will help keep temps in check today despite relatively warm air aloft. Highs look to range from the upper 20s north to the mid 30s along the NH Seacoast.

By this evening, light snow will break out in NH and adjacent parts of southwestern ME as shown by the darker blue shading on this forecast map valid at 8 PM.

The big question then becomes: just how much snow is this storm going to drop? This question has been frustratingly hard to answer over the past couple days.

The central problem is that unlike most of our storms here in New England, this one appears likely to hit the brakes just east of Cape Cod and basically sit still for a couple days. Where exactly the storm decides to camp out will determine whether parts of our area get a couple inches or a couple feet of snow.

This loop shows that “stalling” process with bands of heavy precipitation lurking just northwest of the low’s center. Right now, most forecast model guidance suggests that these heavier bands will stay just offshore. This would keep snowfall totals fairly modest especially in the foothills/mountains. However, a wobble 50-75miles northwest would mean that instead of lingering over the ocean, these heavy bands could linger onshore and drop substantial totals.

Given all that uncertainty, it’s tempting to kick the can down the road a little more on a snowmap but since flakes start to fly in less than 12 hours now, it’s time to offer a first guess.

The highest totals I think will be found in interior parts of the Midcoast where I bet we’ll see plenty of 4,5, and 6″ reports. Confidence wasn’t quite high enough to include a 4-8″ contour but I was pretty tempted between Augusta/Waterville, and Camden/Belfast. Otherwise, there are some solid hints of a band setting up from the Whites through the ME foothills so I tried to reflect that in the 2-4″ contour. Surface temps will be right around freezing for most of this event which means that accumulation will be tough and heavily dependent on precipitation intensity right at the shoreline.

I’ll be following along with today’s forecast data closely and if any substantial changes to the forecast are needed, I’ll do another update this evening. Otherwise, let the light flakes fly this evening and revisit in the morning once we move into the stall/pivot phase of the system.

-Jack

Reliably hype-free weather info for Western Maine and New Hampshire from amateur forecaster Jack Sillin

%d bloggers like this: