A cold front has drifted very lazily into the northern part of the region this morning, and its southward motion today could easily be outdone by a moderately ambitious biker. The front seems similarly unmotivated to push the air in front of it upwards, which would be key to the development of widespread precipitation.
Despite its shortcomings, our #sad cold front will cause just enough of a stir today to produce some showers and thunderstorms. The first round of showers is in progress now across Southern NH. These showers are quite weak, and won’t have any impacts. The potentially more impactful showers will develop along the cold front this afternoon beginning in the 1-2 PM timeframe. These will feature much heavier rain along with the chance for lightning. The best chance for these heavier showers will be in southern and central regions. Any showers and storms will either dissipate or move offshore following sunset.
High temps today will range from around 70 in the north to a few degrees above 80 in the south.
Today will feature warmer temps, slightly higher humidity, and the renewed chance for some showers and thunderstorms. All these changes will be due to the approach of a weak cold front from Quebec. The front won’t make it very far south during daylight hours today, which means that the best chance of storms will be north of Route 2. The rest of the area, particularly farther west in NH, may see some showers this evening but by then their intensity will be waning.
Skies will generally have more clouds than sun, but most of the area (except perhaps for the far north) will see at least some brighter hours. Temps will range from 70 in the north to 75 along the midcoast to 85 in the typical interior SW warm spots.
Today will feature more of yesterday’s cool temps and low humidity, just without the showers and thunderstorms. Northwesterly breezes will keep the Canadian airmass flowing into the region which means that we’ll be looking for our favorite upslope/downslope pattern in terms of cloud cover. The mountains remain stuck under a thick layer of low clouds while sunshine rules the coastal plain. Clouds may thin out a bit in the mountains this afternoon, but overall that trend will continue. Aside from some brief showers this morning in the north, it will be a dry day region-wide. Enjoy the spectacular weather!
Today will feature cooler temps, a few more clouds, and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. All the aforementioned characteristics of today’s weather can be traced back to a seasonably strong upper level disturbance diving southeast out of Quebec. There are already some showers ongoing this morning; as of 7 AM they are impacting parts of the I-95 corridor north of Augusta as well as parts of the far northern mountains. Expect these showers to expand southeast as the rest of the morning goes on. As with yesterday, the best chance of showers will be in the north. Some will stray into southern areas, but they won’t be quite as numerous.
High temps today look to come in below what we’d expect for this time of year by several degrees. The mountains will stay in the mid to upper 60’s while the coastal plain only makes it a few degrees above 70. Overall humidity will be on the lower side, which will make this a great day to be outside. Just make sure you have a plan to head for cover if a storm pops up nearby. The stronger cells today will feature gusty winds, lightning, and small hail.
I’m back in range of the internet now, which means I can return to the usual programming here on the blog. After thunderstorms along a cold front yesterday and Wednesday, we’ll be left with much nicer weather today. Westerly winds will be bringing in cooler and drier air to the region over the course of the day, so expect morning low clouds and fog to be burning off on the sooner side. Some residual moisture is noted across the region this morning, and as a result we’ll see some instability develop as cool air moves in faster aloft than it does at the surface.
The instability will be released by a weak upper level disturbance moving through the region this afternoon as well as upslope flow over the mountains. Not everyone will see a shower/storm, and in fact most of us should stay dry. For those who do end up under one of the taller clouds this afternoon, a quick burst of rain, some gusty winds, and some small hail can be expected. The best chance of storms will be up in the mountains, and the best chance of staying dry will be along the NH Seacoast.
Highs today will range from 70 in the mountains to a little above 80 in Southern NH. Westerly flow will keep any sea breeze attempts at bay, so the coastal plain will see temps get up into the mid/upper 70’s just like most of the foothills.
You’ll notice this post is coming at an odd hour as it contains info outside the scope/format of the typical morning updates. The order of operations will be a couple quick notes not directly related to the forecast followed by forecast information for the next few days. A quick rundown of the notes can be found below.
Note 1 (Beach to Beacon) Note 2 (Patreon Update) Note 3 (Weather.us Blog) Note 4 (Programming This Week)
The post will end up being on the longer side, but I’ll break it down into smaller sections. Don’t find a section interesting or relevant to you? Just skip to the next one.
Note 1: Beach to Beacon
Since many of you either know me personally, or have spent a while supporting what I do either on the Patreon page or just by reading the blog here, I figured I’d share a few words about a very cool opportunity I got to pursue this summer in case folks might find it interesting.
Over the course of the past couple weeks, I’ve had the great privilege of being involved in the planning process for the TD Beach to Beacon 10K held in Cape Elizabeth. I helped provide weather information to the organizers of the race so that they knew what to expect in terms of race day weather and could plan accordingly. I got to work with some really awesome people who play crucial roles in making sure an event for over 10,000 people goes off smoothly.
Naturally, I learned a lot by participating in such a process. I got to see some of the inner workings behind a major sporting event, and I learned what sort of weather information is really important (and comparatively less important) to the organizers of these large events. Some variables (temperature/humidity/chance of thunder) are very important, while others (sky cover/winds/chance of rain) are much less so.
When I first ran the race three years ago, I never imagined that just a few short years later I would get to be a part, however small (the weather was about as nice as it gets this year), of making it all happen. This is the kind of awesome stuff that happens when a great community lends their steady support to a kid with a passion. So thank you!
They even gave me a cool t-shirt!
Note 2: An Update On Forecaster Jack For The Coming Year
This time last year, I wrote a post explaining that as I was going off to college and free time was dwindling while expenses were increasing, I was going to launch a Patreon platform where readers who were interested could pitch in a few bucks so that I would be able to justify spending time writing forecasts for ME and NH.
The support I got has continued to be really awesome, so I will continue the daily posts for the year going forward. If I’m out of internet range for a few days, I will continue to post multi-day discussions before I leave so that you’re never without weather information.
One change for this year regarding the Patreon page is that all the proceeds will go straight towards educational expenses for the coming year (tuition, textbooks, transport to/from school, etc.). The cost of college is only headed upwards, and while my family and I are still able to afford it, making those ends meet will require a little more effort on my part. With that in mind, if you haven’t yet considered supporting me and this page but would like to, the link can be found here.
Thanks again to all those who chip in a few bucks, I couldn’t do this without you!
Note 3: Weather.us Blog
In case you didn’t know already, I’ve spent the better part of the last two and a half years working for the weather data website weather.us. In addition to other responsibilities, I help maintain their blog which is nationally focused.
Many of the blog posts at blog.weather.us focus on weather that doesn’t impact Maine/New Hampshire so thus is likely of little interest to the audience of this page. However, I also have been building up a collection of generally focused blog posts explaining various weather phenomenon, many of which do impact our area at one time or another. If you’re interested in learning more about the atmosphere and miss some of my longer and more detailed posts, take a look at the weather.us blog. Hopefully you’ll find it at least somewhat helpful!
An example of a schematic used in a blog.weather.us post to explain the sea breeze and how it forms.
Note 4: Programming This Week
I will be headed back out of internet range this week beginning tomorrow and ending on Thursday. As a result, you won’t see daily posts pop up in your feed, but you can refer back to the next few sections of this post which will have. Daily updates will resume on Friday. I anticipate having at least one opportunity early in the week to log onto the computer to type out any forecast updates that become necessary by that time, but plans change and that might not be entirely possible.
Now For The Forecast Half Of This Post
Tomorrow will feature some really nice weather as a cool airmass moves in from Canada. High temps likely will sit around 70 in the northern mountains while the rest of us rise into the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Dew points will drop into the 40’s across most of the area (excluding the very immediate coast) and a northwest breeze will add to the refreshing feel. This is about as good as it gets for August!
Temps and dew points both creep up about 3-5 degrees for Monday. Highs in the low 70’s north, low 80’s south. Cooler temps will be found along the coast where a sea breeze will make more headway inland compared to Sunday. Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions will continue across the region.
The forecast gets a little trickier on Tuesday with the approach of an upper level disturbance from the west. At the very least, you can expect more clouds to overspread the region during the day along with a few showers. The best chance for showers will be in New Hampshire and in Maine’s northern mountains. Depending on exactly how much cloud cover there ends up being out ahead of the disturbance, we may end up with sufficient instability for a thunderstorm or two. Again, the best chance for that will be in the west and north.
High temps will depend largely on cloud cover, but should be a bit warmer ranging from the mid to upper 70’s in the north to the mid to upper 80’s in the typical inland warm spots. As always, cooler temps will be found near the coast.
Another upper level disturbance crosses the region Wednesday with another round of clouds, showers, and thunderstorms possible. The intensity of those storms will depend on how much clearing we can get out ahead of the front to heat things up and generate instability. I hope to update this forecast if I can get some internet Monday or Tuesday. Highs will be right around seasonal averages, similar to Tuesday (mid 70’s north, mid 80’s south, cooler along the coast).
It should be noted that the timing of the disturbance set to cross the region on Wednesday remains uncertain. There is some chance it gets hung up in Canada and arrives a day late, in which case Wednesday could end up being a decent day.
Depending on what happens with the Wednesday disturbance, Thursday could either see improving weather, or a round of showers and storms. Either way, the best chance for rain will likely be in the morning with drier air more than likely moving in after lunch. Temps will remain seasonably warm before out next shot of cooler air moves in next weekend. As with Wednesday’s forecast, I hope to update this either Monday or Tuesday to offer some more clarity.
Today will feature a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms as our next cold front moves in from Canada. Thankfully, it’s not unbearably humid out there this morning with dew points generally in the 50’s. While dew point values should creep up above 60 in the next few hours, the overall lack of a muggy airmass means that the front will be a bit starved for moisture. As a result, I’m not expecting widespread thunderstorm activity like we saw on Wednesday. That being said, parts of Southern NH as well as the mountains should be ready for some rain this afternoon/evening.
The mountains will likely remain dry until much later this afternoon/evening as the front which will be pushing the air upwards remains well to the northwest in Canada. The trigger mechanism for Southern NH is a weak upper level disturbance which is much closer by (New York), so the chance of a brief shower or storm will begin much earlier in the day, likely within the next few hours. Either way, today won’t be a washout for anyone, but it’s worth keeping a spot to duck for cover in the back of your mind if you’re headed outside in the aforementioned areas.
Temps today will range from 80 in the mountains and along the coastline to a little below 90 inland.