Travel situation not looking good wednesday

As the storm slated to hit Midweek approaches, models are beginning to agree that a complex storm system will move up the coast bringing heavy precipitation. However, where agreement is lacking is in terms of precipitation type.

Lets start Wednesday morning when heavy precipitation begins to cause travel problems centered around the I-95 corridor. While low pressure is likely still centered in Georgia, a strong front extending well into Maine will cause heavy precipitation up and down the Eastern Seaboard.

Air Travel
As the storm winds up over the East Coast, Air travel will be significantly impacted as high winds and heavy precipitation will affect cities like Washington D.C, New York City, Philadelphia, and Boston. Significant delays are expected starting Tuesday night and likely lasting through Wednesday night. Major airports that will be affected are:
BOS (Boston),
JFK (New York Kennedy),
LGA (New York LaGuardia),
EWR (Newark),
IAD (Washington D.C. Dulles),
DCA (Washington National),
PHL (Philadelphia)
CLT (Charlotte, NC)
SAV (Savannah, GA)
ATL (Atlanta, GA)
Keep in mind that many smaller airports like Portland, ME (PWM), and Hartford, CT (BDL) will also be affected.

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The map above shows where I expect the most significant ravel headaches Wednesday morning. Areas like SE Virginia and Central New England are in the bulls eye for travel delays Wednesday morning.

Land Travel

For those traveling by Train, Bus, or Car, you will likely experience wet and windy conditions on the I-95 corridor starting Tuesday in the South, and Wednesday as you head farther north. Expect slow going around D.C., New York, and Boston especially later in the day as the storm winds up.

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The map above shows where I expect travel to be worst during Wednesday afternoon. Bands of heavy precipitation will be affecting all the major hubs-New York, Boston, and D.C. so significant travel delays are likely.

I will most likely have another quick update tonight.
-Jack

Thanksgiving week forecast-Turkey day storm?

As we head into Thanksgiving week, the weather will continue to be active. We have a strong cold front that will move through tonight with a round of sleet, freezing rain, rain, and, for the highest elevations, snow. For Saturday, reasonably nice conditions will dominate with sunny skies, cool temps and gusty winds.

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Saturday night will feature the passage of an arctic cold front that will usher in the coldest air of the season along with some very gusty winds. Mostly sunny and breezy conditions can be expected for Sunday.
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Monday, winds are still active although they will calm down as the evening progresses. Mid-winter like highs will dominate with highs in the 10’s and 20’s down even to Cape Cod and the CT coast. Full sun will again take full command of the skies.
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Tuesday will feature the passage of a weak warm front resulting in nothing more than an end to the incessant NW winds and an increase in clouds. This begins our hyperactive weather pattern for the week.
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Wednesday is where it starts to get interesting for some. Here in New England, CT and RI will begin to feel the effects of the storm with light rain late in the day. Winds will also begin to increase during this time reaching 15-20mph by sundown.
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Regarding the larger picture, low pressure begins to organize  off the VA coast in 2 separate areas. The models diverge at this point as to the strength and position of both lows however, raw conditions are likely to affect parts of Delaware and southern New Jersey as well as the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Model guidance is rather shaky regarding the development and placement of the lows so uncertainty is high.
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As Thanksgiving Day rolls around, the storm could really get going off the New England coast pushing precipitation ashore. At the moment, it looks like cities like Boston, Providence, and New York will stay all rain however cities like Hartford, Springfield, and even Portland Maine will see frozen precipitation at some point. It’s too early to talk amounts, but travel disruptions will be major regardless. I’ll include 2 maps below: one for just New England, and one for the entire NE US.
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The map above is for the afternoon, while the low is pulling away. Precipitation should stop by 2-3 depending on the eventual timing of the low. As I said before, the forecast is uncertain especially 6 days out so the forecast will most likely change.
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This map is for the morning hours-what looks to be the height of the storm at this point. Stay tuned as the forecast will likely evolve over the coming days. Happy Thanksgiving!

-Jack

Wintery mix inland, rain at the coast

Today, a weak warm front will move through followed by a stronger cold front. This morning’s precipitation is a result of the warm front and will remain a wintery mix inland. At the coast, light rain is expected. This afternoon, there may be a window after the warm front passage and before the cold front arrives. The cold front will feature snow in the highest elevations with predominantly liquid precipitation elsewhere. Looking ahead, another cold front sweeps through Saturday with arctic air invading early week. Beyond that, there is a significant threat for a Nor’easter on Thanksgiving or the day before.

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-Jack

Less windy, even cooler today.

Today, winds will decrease as low pressure departs heading for Greenland. The cold air mass however, takes firm hold today with temps only in the 30’s and 40’s. Looking ahead, a warm up is in store late this week before another cold front passes through with another round of rain. Beyond that, early next week looks even colder.

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-Jack

Reliably hype-free weather info for Western Maine and New Hampshire from amateur forecaster Jack Sillin

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