8PM-Anylisis of Current Conditions, New Forecsats, and New Intermediate Advisory

Now it is time for the analysis. What exactly is happening? Where is the heaviest rain? Where are the strongest winds? Where is Sandy located? All is answered below.

First, the all-important NHC update.
Winds 75mph
Pressure 950mb
Movement NE 15mph

This has changed only very slightly from at 5 and at 2. The movement has increased slightly and the pressure has loweres a hair to 950 flat. This is down 1 mb from 2PM. This is slight strenghening and we sould expect a more rapid deepening trand as the warm core system moves over the Gulf Stram packing 80 degrees+ SST’s. This will quickly add a core wind speed of 10mph give or take a little and increase to 80-85mph by Monday Morning as it passes.

Sandy has tropical storm force winds extending 1000 miles+ out from the center and hurricane force winds 230 miles+ out from the center. The wierd thing is though, that the tropical storm force winds extend out farther to the NE than SW and the hurricane force winds extend farther to the SW than the NE.

After the Gulf Stream, the system will move over cooler waters of 65-70 degrees and will begin the transition to a full cold core system. This cold core system will be more adept to caputring the baroclinic energy brought in by the trough.

This may seem a bit overwhelming at first but it is just some pretty simple stuff under-cover. The lower left hand box is the moisture in the high levels of the atmosphere (35,000 feet). The moisture from Sandy is clearly visible streaming northward. The dry air that has been pertruding into Sandy’s eastern side is also clearly visible to her S and SE. The main photo is the winds from this altitude. I drew a black line where the approximate jet stream location is. The purple letters are “H” for ridge and “L” for upper level low/trough. Sandy is the ULL off the east coast and the centeral US trough is also shown.

This trough will inject a considerable amout of energy into the system and help to deepen it to a formidible 945mb low or lower just prior to landfall Monday evening. This will easily smash the records of 960, 955mb that have stood for centuries.

The winds between 5000 and 10000 feet will be absolutely howling as Sandy makes landfall as shown by this model plot.

As you can see, there will be winds in excess of 90 knots or 105mph.

This will be cause for major problems due to the convection firing on the western side of this storm will have the oppertunity to mix down down some of these winds to the surface creating quite a problem for the metropolis’. This is done by basically deflecting the winds like a light and a mirror by the downdraft pushing the winds down to the surface. Also, the high rises will be extra suseptable with winds increasing exponentially as you go up so that some of the tippy tops of the NYC sky-scrapers will be experiencing winds of CAT 5 intensity.

Surge is also another big thing to worry about as mentioned before. Surge heights go as following: South of Wilmington <2′, Wilmington to Cape Hatteras 2-6′, Cape Hatteras to VA beach, 3-6′, VA beach to Ocean City 4-7′, Ocean City to Montauk 4-8′, Long Island Sound 6-11′, NYC 11-15’+ Montauk to Boston 3-7′, Boston to Bath 2-5′, and North of Bath <2′

This is from this afternoon showing an 11′ water rise at the battery in Lower Manhattan which would flood out the subways.

Bouys…
NDBC Location: 31.862N 74.835W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: WNW (300°) at 36.9 kt gusting to 44.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 23.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Mean Wave Direction: N (1°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.23 in and rising rapidly
Air Temperature: 72.3 F
Water Temperature: 77.4 F

Bouy data from SE of Cape Hatteras is shown above

Station 44065 NDBC Location: 40.369N 73.703W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 33.0 kt gusting to 38.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 13.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 13 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (152°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.61 in and falling
Air Temperature: 59.0 F
Dew Point: 53.2 F
Water Temperature: 60.6 F

Bouy data from New York Harbor is shown above

Station 44007 NDBC
Location:
43.531N 70.144W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (20°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in and falling
Air Temperature: 51.3 F
Water Temperature: 53.8 F

Bouy data from just off of Portland ME is shown above

Station 44025 NDBC
Location: 40.250N 73.167W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 42.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 16.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (107°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.57 in and falling
Air Temperature: 58.6 F
Dew Point: 55.9 F
Water Temperature: 61.3 F

Bouy data from off the Jersey Shore is shown above

Rainfall and inland flooding will be of great concern with rivers in VA already above flood stage prompting warnings. Amounts are as following: 10-12″ for NJ and easten PA as well as MD locally higher. 4-8″ For anywhere North of an Ocean City to Pittsburg line and South of a Pittsburg-NYC line. 1-2″ for areas north of Wilmington to Cleveland all the way over to Bangor Maine.

Satellite image of Sandy in the past few seconds courtesy of GOES 14 SRSOR (super rapid scan operational region)

-Jack

 

Bouy Data and New Advisory

The 2PM intermediate advisory has come out now and there are very few changes from before. The winds and pressure have stayed the same while the forward motion has increased to 14mph. There is also some new bouy data to show. I will feature 4 bouys. 1 off of Cape Hatteras, one in New York Harbor, one in the Gulf Of Maine, and one off the Jersey coast.

Station 41002 NDBC
Location: 31.862N 74.835W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 17:50:00 UTC

Winds: NW (310°) at 46.6 kt gusting to 60.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 27.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NNW (337°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 28.98 in and rising
Air Temperature: 70.9 F
Water Temperature: 77.9 F
Bouy 41002 Off of the Carolina Coast.
Station 44065 NDBC
Location: 40.369N 73.703W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 17:50:00 UTC

Winds: NE (40°) at 25.3 kt gusting to 29.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 9.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (120°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.70 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 59.0 F
Dew Point: 54.1 F
Water Temperature: 61.2 F
Bouy 44065 in New York Harbor.
Station 44005 NDBC
Location: 43.204N 69.128W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 17:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (60°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in and falling
Air Temperature: 52.5 F
Dew Point: 52.5 F
Water Temperature: 55.0 F
Bouy 44005 off of Portland ME.
Station 44025 NDBC
Location: 40.250N 73.167W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 17:50:00 UTC

Winds: NE (50°) at 31.1 kt gusting to 36.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 12.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (146°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.67 in and falling
Air Temperature: 58.6 F
Dew Point: 56.5 F
Water Temperature: 61.9
Bouy 44025 off the Jersey coast.
Enjoy the data! I will make a new post with updated bouy data/new advisories at around 8 or 9 tonight.
-Jack

Sandy Pounds East Coast

My sisters blog sample. Be sure to check it out.

weatherannie

Hurricane Sandy, packing winds up to 75mph, bears down on the east coast of the United States. Also known as “Frankenstorm”, Sandy is a category 1, and moving northeast. At 8:00 a.m, on Wednesday morning, Sandy will be downgraded to a tropical storm, but will still impact Pennsylvania.

-Annie

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Poll: Sandy intensity at landfall

Sustained Winds in mph

New Models Show Less Impacts in Maine While Mid-Atlantic Sates Get Hit Hard

New models out this morning show Sandy/Frankenstorm making landfall in Centeral NJ Monday evening. This would deliver quite a surge to theNYC area. Surge heights would be on the order of 6-10′. Irene, for example, delivered a 4-5′ surge and missed flooding the subways by mere inches. With 5 extra feet of water and waves already on the order of 8′ in New York Harbor, subway flooding is a real possibility.

Station 44065 NDBC
Location: 40.369N 73.703W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 10:50:00 UTC

Winds: NNE (30°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 12 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (153°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.82 in and falling
Air Temperature: 58.3 F
Dew Point: 53.1 F
Water Temperature: 61.9 F
Bouy data from the entrance of New York Harbor.

For those of us who this means nothing to, there are only a few things that are important, 1) Significant Wave Height. This is simple and self-explanitory. How high the waves are above the average water level (excluding tides. Ex: 12 foot waves with a 2 foot surge would be reported as a Sig. Wave Height of 12 not 14). 2) Dominant Wave Period. This shows how powerful the blast of energy creating the wave is. The higher the number in seconds, the more powerful the wave (Ex: a wind blown chop has a 2 second period while a tsunami wave has a 5-8 minute period). 3) The obvious wind and pressure to show the weather in general.

Station 41002 NDBC
Location: 31.862N 74.835W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 10:50:00 UTC

Winds: NNW (330°) at 36.9 kt gusting to 46.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 20.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (36°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 28.73 in and rising rapidly
Air Temperature: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 77.7 F

Bouy data from 225 Miles SE of Cape Hatteras.

As you can see by the green Barometric pressure line, the storm center has already pass by though impacts are still severe.

Impacts will be lessened here in Maine due to the storm’s eastern band falling apart. This means that there is not heavy storm on the right hand side of the system. Dont let your gaurd down though…  The storm could easily at any moment decide to build a formidible eastern side or just as easily decide not to. Stay tuned!

Morning Satellite shot of Frankenstorm. As you can see the eastern half is fairly bleak sparing much of Northern New England

Winds will be in the 30-60ph range peaking Monday. This is for Maine and New Hampshire. 40-65mph for Massachussets. 50-70mph for Rhode Island. 60-80mph for New Jersey where the center of the storm moves in. 70 mph for NYC and Long Island. 50-70mph for much of MD with 45-60mph in far western regions. 35-55mph for Eastern VA with 25-45mph for Western regoins.

Tides will be running 2-4′ above normal due to surge in Maine and 1-3′ above normal due to the full moon. This will cause low-lying areas in Portland to flood. These areas will be along low-lying commercial street and areas adjecent to Back Bay as well as anywhere else that is less than 5-6′ above sea level.

Sandy is currently a Category 1 storm with top winds of 75mph. Below is the full NHC advisory.

…SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST…INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR… …WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL…


8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 32.1°N 73.1°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

This is the data and here is the full write-up. For more info including graphics, go to the nhc home page which can be found at the right of my page.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 281159
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

…SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST…INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR…
…WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.1N 73.1W
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM E OF NEW YORK CITY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…951 MB…28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  OTHER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES…
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND APPROACH THE
COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS…AND SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
520 MILES…835 KM. A SHIP LOCTAED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE. ALSO…NOAA BUOY 41036…LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST…RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 47 MPH…76 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH…94 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB…28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA…AND THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY…AND
REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
AT OR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND…BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE…

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY…1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SNDS…4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY…2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY…1 TO 2 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR…6 TO
11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER…4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY…3 TO 5 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY…ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION…
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE…THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

 

Finish preparations for an extended period of time without electricity.

-Jack

Poll: Sandy Landfall

Reliably hype-free weather info for Western Maine and New Hampshire from amateur forecaster Jack Sillin

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