Hello everyone!
Today will feature a wet start for some areas mostly North and East of Portland but all should dry out by midday or a little after. Temps will not be much cooler on the backside of the front so highs today will be near 70 – even at the coast. Sunny skies is expected over southern areas this morning slowly spreading northward.
Rain has moved out of the Western half of the area but there is definitely some more to come for Eastern areas.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
The storm system that has been discussed for the past few days is well underway across the region this afternoon. One big change from this morning is that due to more moisture than expected being advected into the region as well as a slightly slower than anticipated forward motion of the front, rainfall amounts have been increased to widespread 2-3″ with isolated 4″ possible. With the increase in expected rainfall, flooding will also be more of an issue than anticipated. For this reason, the NWS has issued a flash flood watch for the GYX CFO (Southern Maine and most of NH). Flash flood warnings are also up for parts of NH.
Watches and warnings from GYX as of 4:45PM Latest: http://www.weather.gov/gyx/
Watches and warnings from BOX as of 4:45PM Latest info: http://www.weather.gov/box/
Radar as of 4:45PM. Eastward progression of rain has been behind schedule on both ends (onset and finish) and combined with slightly more moisture than anticipated, 2-3″ of rain is expected vs this morning’s 1-2″ forecast.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Today will not be the most pleasant of days here in New England as a front approaches from the west. Precip is already falling in western parts of NH and MA. Out ahead fo the main line, drizzle and fog can be expected along with a cool onshore wind.
The main line of storms should take most of the day to work in from the west but when it does, heavy rain and gusty winds are likely with embedded thunder possible as well.
Some snow-yes, snow showers are possible in the mountains on Sunday. Winter is coming!
Here is a map showing when I expect precip to overspread the area from the main line. As you can see, it will take quite a while for the line to reach eastern areas but when it does, it will rain very hard.
Here is the radar image from this morning. Notice the ares of precip circled in red, that is drizzle that will be affecting the area until the main line comes.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Today will feature mostly cloudy skies across much of the region with some drizzle possible in CT and RI. Some extended sunny breaks are possible in the Maine mountains. For the rest of us, lots of clouds are expected. A sunny break or two cannot be ruled out but more clouds than yesterday for sure.
7 Day forecast for Northern zones (see below for which areas are North and which areas are South)
7 Day forecast for Southern zones (see below for which areas are North and which are South)
This map shows which areas are covered in each respective forecast. Green is covered in the ‘South’ forecast and Red in the ‘North’. 
Forecast map for today: Note lots of clouds and the chance for a sprinkle or two in CT and RI.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Today will feature Mostly cloudy skies across the region as a weak warm front crosses the area and brings more clouds and warmer temps. As you head out the door this morning, you will find the temperature to be several degrees warmer than Sunday’s high temperature. Current temps are in the 60’s now and for that reason, we should have not problem reaching 70 today across most areas even without the help of the sun.
Today is the debut of the new graphics I have been working on however the operational functionality is still being tweaked. I expect to do two 7 day forecasts one for northern areas and one for southern.
Here is the 7 day for the region. If you think the temps are a little vague, I expect that doing two forecasts for the region should help.
Here is a more detailed look at today. I expect this to replace the map feature soon.
Here is the map feature for the new geographical area.
Here is a recap from Yesterday on the new area I will focus on for forecasting this fall and likely beyond.
I have always been a little vague in terms of which areas I have been forecasting for. With the addition of the map feature, I have narrowed things down to New England. This fall, I will narrow things down even more to the NWS WFO’s of Gray and Boston.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
We have an interesting week weather-wise to look forward to as a slow-moving storm system approaches from the west. We will be stuck in the warm flow ahead of the storm so expect above average temps and humidity.
Expect rain to overspread the area from west to east Thursday into Thursday night. Heavy rainfall and embedded thunder is expected as deep tropical moisture surges north from Hurricane Gonzalo.
Only a slight change in terms of air mass is expected Friday before another front brings a seasonable air mass into the region for the weekend.
More updates tomorrow AM.
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Experiments this fall:
I have been working hard on a new graphics system which will debut tomorrow morning. This means that the current map system will go under review this fall and I may decide to do away with that system if the new graphics prove to be better.
I have always been a little vague in terms of which areas I have been forecasting for. With the addition of the map feature, I have narrowed things down to New England. This fall, I will narrow things down even more to the NWS WFO’s of Gray and Boston.
Here are the areas I will be forecasting for this fall. If things work out, no changes will be made going into winter.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Today will feature reasonably nice weather with varying degrees of cloudiness. The mountains will see the most clouds, and the coast will see the fewest. Temps will be cool for everyone with highs only getting into the 50’s for a good chunck of the area.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Today will feature a wide range of weather with the mountains seeing an almost raw day with gusty west winds and the chance for a few showers in the favored upslope areas. Highs there will only be in the 50s. In sharp contrast, the coast will see bright skies and temps in the 60s with no rain.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Today will be in interesting one for sure as we start out the day with thunder, downpours, the chance for severe thunderstorms, and yes, possibly a tornado or two. If you are not a big fan of that stuff, just wait a few hours until the sun comes out and the birds start chirping etc. That will happen today, I promise.
Bonus map this morning! Here is the radar from ~5:20 this morning showing the three main lines of storms. They are all moving in a NE direction and after the very last one in central MA passes through, the sun should be not far behind.
The colors on the usual map correspond to severe weather risk threat. Red indicates the areas where conditions are most ripe for severe weather. Yellow indicates areas where conditions would allow for possible severe weather but severe weather is not likely. Green indicates a negligible severe weather risk.
Note the 70’s on the map? In stark contrast to this morning’s weather, expect 70’s under sunny skies for a large part of the area this afternoon.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Quick update on what to expect early tomorrow morning as a powerful upper level disturbance drags a front across the region early tomorrow morning. Expect a period of very heavy rain and strong winds along the axis of an occluded front. The worst weather will be between 7 and 10am when some rumbles of thunder could be heard. Some thunderstorms could become severe with high winds being the main threat. A brief tornado is possible as well though any tornadic action should be short and weak.
I will have another update at the usual time tomorrow morning.
-Jack
Forecasterjack 