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Full tropical update

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The full version of the tropical update is as follows:

There are several areas of interest now, Gordon, 94L, 95L, a wave off Africa and a wave approaching the Antilles.

Gordon
Initial Winds: 70MPH
Pressure: 987MB
Classification: TS

Gordon will track NE and become extratropicial while moving towards the coast of Spain where showers are likely at most.

94L:
Initial Probability: 80%*

94L will likely continue to move WNW or W. Following in the shadow of another tropical wave 94L is expected to move north of Hispaniola and Cuba. From there, it could make landfall anywhere from Havana Cuba to Halifax Canada. Depending on where it will make landfall, it could hit at a strength of a weak TS or a strong hurricane. THIS STORM IS A THREAT TO THE US!! Stay tuned for future updates!! 94L has a large well defined circulation but lacks heavy thunderstorms to be a classified TD.

95L:
Initial probability: 30%*

95L will likely drift around the NW GOM (Gulf of Mexico) While slowly growing in organization. It could eventually impact the Gulf coast next week.

African Wave:
Initial probability: 20%

This African wave will be moving W while developing at a steady pace. There is high uncertainty with this forecast and THIS STORM COULD ALSO IMPACT THE US IN THE FUTURE!!!

Wave Approaching the Antilles:
Current probability: 0%

The reason I mentioned this Wave is that it is helping 94L develop by leaving a moist environment in its wake. This wave has a small chance of development once it reaches the Western Caribbean.

STAY TUNED!!!

-JAck

Climate forecast

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Winter 2012-2013:

There will be a weak El Nino and a likely negative PDO. In more simple terms, an area of moderately warm waters off the coast off Peru (El Nino) and Cooler waters off the SW coast of Alaska(Negative PDO). So what does this mean for the US? It means that the eastern seaboard will see cooler temperatures so it will be a cooler than normal winter for the eastern third of the country. Also this set of conditions favors a pattern known as the Greenland block. This is when a ridge of high  pressure sits over Greenland and causes the jet stream (which is a “storm highway” and the divide between warm and cold) to dive south into the Eastern US. This ridging will vary from week to week this winter and will not be as strong as 2010-2011. The East will see Above-average precipitation (likely in the form of snow due to below average temperatures. In the Center of the country there will be the other counterpart to the Eastern trough, the high where the jet stream rises warm air and dry air into the nations heartland causing lower than average snow levels and worsening drought. In the Western US it should be a fairly average winter other than the fact that the Pacific storms will be more powerful and more frequent.

Stay tuned!

-Jack