Quick mid-storm update this morning and all systems are go as far as the forecast is concerned. Heavy mesoscale bands are producing intense snowfall rates of 2-4″ per hour and storm to sometimes hurricane force wind gusts (50-80 MPH) are blowing all that snow around. Yesterday’s maps and analysis still stands so refer back to last night’s blog post for those details.
Here is a look at the radar as of 10:00 this morning showing several areas of enhanced snowfall. Our next intense band is strengthening offshore and will bring more intense snowfall rates to the area this afternoon. Even in areas outside of the heaviest bands, snowfall rates are still in the 1-2″ per hour range.
Expect continued blizzard conditions through the afternoon and evening before snow becomes lighter tonight. Steady snow will end tomorrow morning before tapering off to snow showers. Colder air will arrive on NW winds tomorrow so expect continued blowing and drifting which could cause locally reduced visibilities and dangerous road conditions even though snow will no longer be falling.
Our next chance for widespread snowfall arrives Friday but it should not be a major event. More details once this storm ends. Yet another storm threat arrives early next week.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with the usual AM update.
It’s here, go time, T-0. Heavy snow is already moving onshore across southern New England as light ocean effect snow showers organize across coastal Maine and New Hampshire. The main precip shield, as of 5:30, is located just north of Boston extending almost due west and is slowly moving north.
While I try to keep things under control in the technicality department, some higher level terms will be thrown around. Any words that show up in green, signaling a link, will take you to the glossary I have compiled with more information. Suggestions are welcome regarding terms you would like to see added to the glossary.
A busy water vapor satellite image shows well the components of our storm coming together. This is really a textbook storm with high latitude blocking, a strengthening low at all levels of the atmosphere, a deep tropical connection, and more reserve energy waiting to drop into the storm up in the Great Lakes. The storm’s strong baroclinic leaf consists of the broad blue area from Maine to Maryland and offshore. Just how many and how far-reaching will the impacts from this storm be? Hint: there are quite a few and they will cover all the bases.
Snow
Lots of snow is expected with this one, no doubt about it. Widespread 1-2′ amounts are expected with slightly less in the far north and along the cape while areas west of Boston stand the greatest chance for over 2′ to as much as 3′ of snow.
There are a few reasons for such high snowfall totals, first, this will be a rapidly strengthening storm. pressure is already falling fast off the Carolina coast and the low is quickly gaining steam. When you have a rapidly intensifying storm, you get intense upward motion on the NW side which brings very heavy snow.
This map is the NAM vertical velocity map for 7AM tomorrow showing an intense band of snow along coastal Maine. This band will later move inland bringing heavy snow all the way to Canada. In areas highlighted in pink, extreme snowfall rates on the order of 1-3″ per hour will be widespread along with enhanced winds along with the potential for thundersnow. Image courtesy, Accuweather.
Another reason for high snowfall totals will be the dry, fluffy nature of the snow which can accumulate very efficiently. Temps in the single digits to low teens will keep snow dry and powdery for the duration as well as keep the threat for mixing well to the south and east.
One last contributing factor to mention is the fact that the storm will stall out southeast of Nantucket for about 12 hours tomorrow and will keep rotating heavy bands onshore through the entire day rather than skirting right out to sea. With many hours of heavy, efficiently accumulating snowfall, amounts will approach or even exceed 2 feet in many areas.
Wind
Wind Gusts In Knots Off The 12Z GFS. Courtesy: Accuweather
With a rapidly intensifying low to our SE and a strong, stubborn high to our NW, the pressure gradient will be extremely tight. Wind gusts exceeding 60 mph are likely along all of coastal ME and NH extending all the way through Eastern MA, RI, and Eastern CT. Coastal SE MA will likely see wind gusts over hurricane force Tuesday morning. Inland areas will see wind too, though less violent than coastal areas. Gusts exceeding 35mph will be common region-wide.
Winds this strong, no matter the circumstance, will bring down tree limbs and power lines so power outages are a very real threat across coastal areas. The power outage threat will extend inland though will be mitigated somewhat by friction and thus lower wind speeds.
Blowing/Drifting Snow, Blizzard Conditions
Official Warning Map From NWS Gray Showing Blizzard Warnings Along The Coast With Winter Storm Warnings Inland
The combination of high winds and powdery snow will cause extended whiteouts across coastal areas on Tuesday. For this reason, the NWS has issued Blizzard Warnings for the coast as well as adjacent inland areas. To qualify as a blizzard, a storm must produce falling or blowing snow combined with winds of over 35 mph reducing visibilities to 1/4 mile or less. All these criteria must be met for 3 hours or more to qualify. All areas should expect scattered blizzard conditions but the coast is likely to meet the official criteria for a blizzard event.
With such high amounts of snow forecasted combined with high winds, drifting will also become a legitimate concern especially for those areas in the blizzard warning. Drifts up to 4 feet are possible in some highly localized areas with other spots seeing bare ground as the snow is blown somewhere else.
Coastal Flooding
A prolonged period of strong onshore winds almost always results in coastal flooding and this time is no different. The map above is off the Wave Watch III model, courtesy of Accuweather, which shows 24 foot seas just offshore. While the more northerly component of the storm will mitigate the threat somewhat, the coast will take a bit of a beating for sure.
For these reasons, the NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Warning for the entire coast which I totally agree with due to the expected 1-4 foot storm surge plus the strong wave action. Expect moderate to, in some places major coastal flooding with the high tides on Tuesday. Things will settle down somewhat Wednesday though some residual wave action may cause some minor problems.
Timing/Travel Impacts
Below I will break down the timing along with travel impacts. The scale for travel impacts goes Minor, Moderate, Major, Severe, Extreme, Extreme Do Not Travel. If you must travel, always consult the latest NWS information.
Tonight – Snow builds in from South to North becoming heavy at times later on tonight. Travel impacts: Moderate.
Tomorrow Morning – Very heavy snow bands rotate in off the ocean causing extremely heavy snow which, combined with high winds, will cause travel to become impossible. Travel impacts: Extreme. Do Not Travel.
Tomorrow Afternoon – Heavy snow sticks around though the extreme snow moves out. Winds will still be whipping causing continued whiteout conditions. Travel impacts: Extreme.
Tomorrow Night: Heavy snow moves out, steady moderate snow remains. Winds die down slightly though whiteout conditions can still be expected. Travel impacts: Severe
Wednesday Morning: Light, but steady snow remains with some moderate bands. Winds will continue to die down but blowing and drifting will remain an issue. Travel impacts: Major/Moderate
Wednesday Afternoon: Steady snow moves out leaving patchy snow showers/squalls. Winds however will keep the threat for blowing and drifting snow around long after the flakes stop falling. Travel impacts: Moderate.
Wednesday Night: Clearing begins, some blowing/drifting still possible mainly in the evening as winds continue to let up. Travel impacts; Minor.
Recap
All in all, this will be a big storm, but probably not record-breaking at least for Maine. Widespread 1-2′ amounts are likely with the bullseye for 2’+ being west of Boston. Highs winds will whip the snow into a frenzy and cause blowing and drifting along with whiteout conditions. The peak of the storm will be Tuesday, especially in the morning. Snow slowly winds down Tuesday night before ending midday Wednesday.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with another update.
Today will feature mostly cloudy skies and warm temps with highs rising well into the 40’s. Any rain from our approaching system should hold off until late afternoon for southwest areas and for everyone else, any precip arrives after dark.
Tonight, rain moves in and becomes steadier and heavier as our storm begins to develop. Expect light NE winds as this storm will not be very strong nor will it be intensifying all that fast.
Tomorrow features heavy rain and breezy conditions. Expect highs in the low 40’s. Rain should become lighter as the afternoon progresses but as I will explain below, precip could hang around until midweek.
Monday through Wednesday will feature light to moderate rain/freezing rain/snow even at the coast. I expect Sunday night into Monday morning to be the worst in terms of icy conditions.
Late week we clear out and warm up into the upper 40’s under sunny skies. More rain/freezing rain/snow is possible next weekend but there are still a lot of details to be worked out.
Keep in mind, the storm could stall far enough offshore to get sunny and upper 40’s starting Monday or Tuesday. This is a very finicky pattern so keep in mind that is a possibility though don’t expect it.-
As spring arrives and warm and cold air battle it out over the US, we often get low pressure systems that are ‘cut off’ from the rest of the jet stream. They will meander around extremely slowly (anyone could out-jog them fairly easily) while bringing rainy/snowy weather to whichever area they happen to be in.
This is the kind of setup we will be stuck with over the next 5 days. The low will stall off Cape Cod and sit there with no interest in moving an inch. As a result, prolonged periods of rain and freezing rain are expected. It looks like the mountains will be too far away to get any more snow but that is also a possibility just as no precip is.
Expect QPF (Quantitative precipitation forecast which is the amount of liquid forecast to fall from the sky. Usually 1″ of QPF is 12″ of snow) amounts around an inch for the mountains and between 2 and 3 inches at the coast. This will fall starting this afternoon into tonight and last until Tuesday or Wednesday.
I think that the majority of that will fall as rain for the coast but starting Sunday evening, a flip to freezing rain is likely. I expect freezing rain amounts to be between 1/4″ and 1/3″. I will go into more detail below.
Zone 1: Heavy snow. Snowfall amounts between 12 and 18″ with 24″ amounts possible. Expect snow to start tonight and end tomorrow night. Winds out of the NE at 10-15 mph. Temps in the low 30’s.
Zone 2: Heavy snow with a little rain possible. Snowfall amounts between 6 and 12″ Expect snow to start tonight and end Monday. Winds out of the NE at 10-15 mph. Temps in the low to mid 30’s.
Zone 3: Rain/freezing rain with a little snow. Snowfall amounts between 2 and 6″. Freezing rain amounts between 1/4 and 1/3″ Expect snow to start tonight and change to snow tomorrow before turning back to snow Monday. Precip ends Monday or Tuesday. Temps in the low to mid 30’s.
Zone 4: Rain with some freezing rain. Freezing rain amounts between 1/4 and 1/3″ Expect rain to start tonight and possibly extend through Wednesday. Rain amounts 2-3″. Temps in the 40’s tomorrow falling into the 30’s tomorrow night through Tuesday/Wednesday.
Zone 5: Rain. Rain amounts 1-3″ higher amounts in the NE sections. Along the Maine coast, freezing rain is possible Monday through Tuesday/Wednesday. Precip ends Tuesday/Wednesday.
I am concerned about flooding because there is a heck of a lot of water locked up in the snow in the foothills and mountains. In areas forecast to get 2-3″ of rain, up to 10″ is locked away in the snow. Not all 10″ will melt but there are sure to be problems with this kind of a setup.
This map shows how much water there is in the snow. Click to enlarge.
As hard as it is to believe, there are still ice jams on the rivers left over from the January thaw. When new water flow into rivers already ice-jammed, minor flooding is likely.
Most of the area is under a flood watch from the NWS with the exception of far northern areas which are under a winter storm watch.
After this storm, warm and mild conditions are locked in place as we sit under high pressure. However, all good thing must come to an end as wet weather threatens for next weekend.
Today has been a day of models shifting east meaning less snow. While this is the case, this storm still has historic potential especially near Boston.
Snow map adjusted for track shift.
All other aspects of the storm look to be about the same as last forecast.
-Jack
Updated snow map.
New models this morning show a stronger storm a little farther west which means, more snow. Also, this means winds will be slightly higher. We will see conditions deteriorate rapidly this afternoon/evening with blizzard conditions across much of New England by evening. Coastal flooding is also of concern with a 2-4′ surge forecasted to hit NYC/Boston. This round of flooding will not be damaging as of now. The main precip shield is moving north and the leading edge is past NYC. The snow across Maine now is from the clipper system which will merge or phase with the moisture laden southern low which is currently starting its rapid intensification.
-Jack
This evenings model runs have come in showing less mixing along the Southern New England coast. Other than that, no major changes to the forecast.
Here is my new snow map with little change other than the SNE coast.
Currently our two pieces of energy are intensifying as they march towards one another. Tomorrow they will combine and rapidly intensify while moving slowly. The monster storm should bottom out at a respectable 974mb. As the storm intensifies, it will suck an enormous volume of air towards the center resulting in high winds of 50mph along the Maine coast. Along the Cape, gusts of hurricane force will be possible. As for elsewhere, winds will vary by location 25mph far inland and 35-45mph closer to the coast.
-Jack
Not much changing now so just the snowfall map. Note: Southern Coastal ME is under a blizzard warning with a winter storm warning elsewhere inland.
-Jack
After days and days of model diversion, some agreements are being reached. The one big agreement is that there will be a strong low moving up the north east coast. A classic Noreaster enchanced with extra gulf moisture and another “clipper” system as well.
Now lets dig deeper. There is currently a disturbance in the Gulf Of Mexico (GOM) that is producing heavy rains in TX/LA currently.
Map of disturbance in GOM.
This disturbance will move NE over FL and emerge of the carolinas tomorrow. Tomorrow night things really get going with the low moing NNE towards the famed 40, 70 benchmark. This is a point on the map we meterologists look at a lot to determine the effects of a storm. Anyway, as the low approaches this location SE of Boston, it will stall out for about 6 hours while absorbing the northern low pressure and rapidly intensifying. The result will be insane snow bands Friday afternoon/night. There will be a minor break in the action some time friday evening however, another push of snow on the back side of this system will drop more snow Saturday and with high winds, blizzard conditions are likely.
Snow map for Friday/Saturday storm.
For everyone wondering about the snow day potential here in ME, its really on the line. Friday morning will be pretty much clear as far as I can see but the afternoon gets tricky. Most likely early dismissal. Stay tuned for tomorrow nights update!
-JAck SIllin
We are heading into a more active weather pattern with two snow events and one rain event. Here I will break them down day by day.
The first one will be a small system that will be a moisture starved clipper system bringing under 2″ of snow for most of the area.
Here is a snow map for the clipper system.
The next system is the more interesting one. There will be two clipper systems moving across the country on thursday. There will also be 2 jet streams that will direct these storms and feul them with energy and moisture from the Pacific. The southern storm, moving over the energy laden Gulf of Mexico will rapidly develop while moving NE off the south east US coast. This low will absorb the northern low giving it an extra boost of energy. Cyclogenisis will occur off of Cape Cod as the low slows down. The european model has the pressure at 974mb while the GFS likes a more moderate 988mb solution. I am leaning with the “jack” model also known as a compromise right down the middle. I am thinking a 980mb low moving slightly SE of an area known to meterologists as the “benchmark” or 40N 70W. For us, this means that there is a potential for significant snow across the region.
Early snow map for Friday storm.
Note: this map will continue to be refined throughout the coming days and is only an early guess for now.
The third and final storm in the forseeable future will impact us early next week. This event will be assosiated with a low moving to our west putting us on the warm, rainy side of the system. Temps in the 40’s along with rain will melt any snow that falls on Friday.
I will try to update the blog every day as new forecasts become avalible regarding the friday system.
-Jack
Christmas is finally almost here (3 days away!) and many of us are wondering if it will be a white christmas.
Today and Tomorrow will be cold and windy but no major problems across the northeast. The lake effect machine will be cranking today across typical areas. A few light flurries are possible across the north east today but any will be very light and will not cause any disruptions.
As we head into christmas eve, there could be some light rain/rain showers in the ohio valley but nothing major. When Santa arrives Monday night, he can expect light snow across southern New England.
There looks to be the potential for snow on Christmas day. However, activity will be light and will be focused across southern New England.
Snowfall map.
The disturbance creating this christmas snow will be weak by any standards and will skirt south of ME/NH. MA/RI/CT will see the most snow. Accumulations should be light and travel impacts will be low to none.
As we head into the middle of next week, there looks to be a stronger noreaster Wednesday night inot Thursday. Totals should be much higer with that storm yet it is too early to tell specific amounts.
Tracks of next week storms.
Cold air shoulf remain in control Thursday so it should be a predominantly snow event.
Forecasterjack 