Tag Archives: snow

Snow today

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Hello everyone!

Today will feature a cloudy start ahead of our next storm. Clouds will spread northward as the day goes on and snow will not be far behind.

Snow will overspread southern New Hampshire this morning between 7 and 8 and will move into southern Maine between 8 and 9. Snow will become heavy after noon and thunder could accompany the heaviest bands with snowfall rates approaching 3″/hr.

Snow will taper off this evening into tonight SW to NE as the low pulls away. Any leftover snow will end by 1-2 am. Expect winds to kick up once again as the low deepens.

As for amounts, expect a wide swath of 4-8″ across Southern Maine and New Hampshire while coastal New Hampshire and Massachusetts will have to deal with a mix/rain line holding down accumulations.

Snow map 2-18

 

Snow map.

More snow arrives tomorrow mixing with sleet/freezing rain along the coast. A warm up is expected late week with rain plaguing the area Friday. Do not fear fellow winter lovers! The cold returns Sunday and lasts as far as the eye can see.

-Jack

Morning update

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What a wild ride this has been in regards to amounts, source of amounts, low placement etc. We now have a low pressure center moving ENE that is located about 150 miles SE of the Cape. Regardless, its associated trough will bring snow. This trough will set up over the region today and sit there not moving until evening. Due to the non norlun nature of this trough (thank goodness!!), I am confident with my amountsthat have been upgraded and are shown below.

snow 2222
Snow Map.
ptype 2
Precipitation type map.

The upgrade in snow totals was due to the trough being slighly stronger than expected. As a result, the snow rates will also be higher than expected leading to reduced visibilities and slick roads.
-Jack

What a change…

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What a change over the past few days! First we were looking at the potential for a foot of snow from a powerful ocean storm and now we are looking at 6″ from its wicked inverted trough. Remember that inverted or norlun trough from earlier this winter? They are impossible to predict where they will set up until they actually do set up. Now I am thinking it will set up right near Portland or maybe a little south. Either way, there should be snow breaking our today from “ocean effect” or lake effect snow but over the ocean. Ocean effect snow tends not to be as heavy as lake effect and that is what we will see today.
There is a developing low off the Carolina coast that is moving ENE. This low will skirt too far offshore to have too much of an effect. its norlun or inverted trough however will. This troughs are notoriously impossible to predict as we saw earlier this year. Right now my thoughts are that it will dump a sufficient amount (6″) to many across southern Maine. My snow map is below.
snow111
Snow map.
Check out my other two sites for town by town forecasts for the snow. Those will be updated with the 18z runs tonight. They can be found at the right of my page.
-Jack

Models agree now on only a very minor snow event for many

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Models now agree this morning that the comination or phasing of these two storms will occur too far to the south and east to give us much snow. I expect a widespread 4-6″ from an inverted trough. Remember what happened with that last time? We all expected 8-12″ but we got 0. These things are absolutely impossible to predict so confidence is super low. Snow map coming with 12z models midday.
The area of low pressure will develop and move to the ESE today into tonight. It will then rapidly deepen South of the Maritimes. The inverted or norlun trough will hang around behind giving us minimal snow. Check back later for the snow map.
-Jack

Track shift means a little less snow… Still historic potential.

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Today has been a day of models shifting east meaning less snow. While this is the case, this storm still has historic potential especially near Boston.
nemo 2
Snow map adjusted for track shift.
All other aspects of the storm look to be about the same as last forecast.
-Jack

Updated snow map/evening summary

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This evenings model runs have come in showing less mixing along the Southern New England coast. Other than that, no major changes to the forecast.
snow 3
Here is my new snow map with little change other than the SNE coast.

Currently our two pieces of energy are intensifying as they march towards one another. Tomorrow they will combine and rapidly intensify while moving slowly. The monster storm should bottom out at a respectable 974mb. As the storm intensifies, it will suck an enormous volume of air towards the center resulting in high winds of 50mph along the Maine coast. Along the Cape, gusts of hurricane force will be possible. As for elsewhere, winds will vary by location 25mph far inland and 35-45mph closer to the coast.
-Jack

Snowfall map

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Not much changing now so just the snowfall map. Note: Southern Coastal ME is under a blizzard warning with a winter storm warning elsewhere inland.
snow 2
-Jack

Historic snow targeting New England.

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After days and days of model diversion, some agreements are being reached. The one big agreement is that there will be a strong low moving up the north east coast. A classic Noreaster enchanced with extra gulf moisture and another “clipper” system as well.

Now lets dig deeper. There is currently a disturbance in the Gulf Of Mexico (GOM) that is producing heavy rains in TX/LA currently.
noreaster 3
Map of disturbance in GOM.
This disturbance will move NE over FL and emerge of the carolinas tomorrow. Tomorrow night things really get going with the low moing NNE towards the famed 40, 70 benchmark. This is a point on the map we meterologists look at a lot to determine the effects of a storm. Anyway, as the low approaches this location SE of Boston, it will stall out for about 6 hours while absorbing the northern low pressure and rapidly intensifying. The result will be insane snow bands Friday afternoon/night. There will be a minor break in the action some time friday evening however, another push of snow on the back side of this system will drop more snow Saturday and with high winds, blizzard conditions are likely.
snow 2c
Snow map for Friday/Saturday storm.

For everyone wondering about the snow day potential here in ME, its really on the line. Friday morning will be pretty much clear as far as I can see but the afternoon gets tricky. Most likely early dismissal. Stay tuned for tomorrow nights update!
-JAck SIllin

Significant snow potential Friday

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We are heading into a more active weather pattern with two snow events and one rain event. Here I will break them down day by day.

The first one will be a small system that will be a moisture starved clipper system bringing under 2″ of snow for most of the area.
snow 2
Here is a snow map for the clipper system.

The next system is the more interesting one. There will be two clipper systems moving across the country on thursday. There will also be 2 jet streams that will direct these storms and feul them with energy and moisture from the Pacific. The southern storm, moving over the energy laden Gulf of Mexico will rapidly develop while moving NE off the south east US coast. This low will absorb the northern low giving it an extra boost of energy. Cyclogenisis will occur off of Cape Cod as the low slows down. The european model has the pressure at 974mb while the GFS likes a more moderate 988mb solution. I am leaning with the “jack” model also known as a compromise right down the middle. I am thinking a 980mb low moving slightly SE of an area known to meterologists as the “benchmark” or 40N 70W. For us, this means that there is a potential for significant snow across the region.
snow 2b
Early snow map for Friday storm.
Note: this map will continue to be refined throughout the coming days and is only an early guess for now.
The third and final storm in the forseeable future will impact us early next week. This event will be assosiated with a low moving to our west putting us on the warm, rainy side of the system. Temps in the 40’s along with rain will melt any snow that falls on Friday.
I will try to update the blog every day as new forecasts become avalible regarding the friday system.
-Jack

Forecast for the next few days

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Sadly, I do not see any big snow in our future. I do however see some light snow on sunday as a low passes well offshore. But first, let me get to today and saturday. Both days will be quiet weather wise. Today will feature slightly more of a westerly wind but nothing like yesterday. By saturday winds will of calmed down more. Both days feature sunny skies with a few fair weather clouds. Today there is a slight chance for a flurry or snow shower but the potential is small. Temperatures will be chilly with highs in the 20’s with lows getting down into the single digits.
-Jack