It looks like we’re heading into a more active period of weather and our next storm is lined up for Saturday. While this one does look to pass well offshore, that doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods for mixed precip. Let’s break it down.
As with most winter forecasts, there are factors for and against snow. There are some indications that some weak Cold Air Damming could form but there is no big high pressure to the north. The stronger low will rapidly intensify to our east but it takes a while for the western low to decay. Before it does, it will try really hard to pull warm marine air northward. By default, it takes a heck of a lot to drag a warm airmass inland very far inland over cold air with a fresh coat of snow. Right now, I doubt rain moves much farther inland than I-95/I-295. It will take a bit more to convince me a weakening low over southern Ontario can accomplish significant warming.
Precip arrives tomorrow night first in the form of light snow in the evening. Warm air will be moving in from offshore and will rise up and over the existing cold air. Snow remains mainly light until Saturday morning when the low gets closer. At this time, it looks like most areas see snow with the coast at risk of rain. At this time, it looks like some low level warmth makes it a few miles inland just above the surface where Cold Air Damming has less of an effect. Should this occur, sleet and or freezing rain could present issues mainly in the area outlined in Purple. Keep in mind, areas south of the current heavy snow area have a legitimate shot at seeing more snow. Experience has taught me never to underestimate cold air in Maine in January. Looking for proof? Remember Tuesday night.
Everyone changes back to snow Saturday evening as cold air blasts south behind the developing storm. Cold air follows for Sunday before more snow arrives Monday. It looks like this could be a Norlun type setup so details will have to wait until Sunday.
I’ll do my very best to get an update up tomorrow afternoon but my school obligations are stacked against me. I’ll be at the indoor track meet at USM for most of the later evening following a team dinner earlier in the evening.
Regardless, I’ll have updated details tomorrow morning and Saturday morning.