Hello everyone!

Just a quick update on tomorrow’s snow forecast to arrive tonight and continue into early tomorrow afternoon. Not a whole lot has changed since this morning but here are my latest thoughts. I explained the dynamics at play in a post yesterday morning and the factors I outlined there are still at play. If you’re interested on learning a little more about the “why behind the what”, be sure to check that out. Otherwise, here’s a brief outline of what to expect in the next 24 hours.

Light snow will arrive late tonight from SW to NE and by dawn everyone will be seeing light snow with 1-3″ of accumulation. Between 7 and 8 AM, the coastal front (aka rain snow line) will begin moving onshore. Exactly how far it makes it remains unknown but for those on the warm side, expect a change to rain mid morning with accumulations limited to 1-3″. For those on the cold side, snow will pick up in intensity during this time with more snow expected.

The exact position of the coastal front remains unknown but it’s a good bet that the midcoast will be on the warm side and I-95 will be on the cold side (outside of York County). In between (Portland, Yarmouth, Brunswick, etc.) the forecast remains more or less a tossup if the front works inland before the precip departs. If it does, look for a period of rain that will keep snowfall to 2-3″. If not, snowfall could keep piling up into the 4-6″ range. Regardless, a period of sleet and/or freezing rain is likely right at the tail end of the event which should be between noon and 3 PM.

Winter storm warnings (pink) and winter weather advisories (purple) are posted for various parts of the area. Roads will be extremely slippery during the AM commute tomorrow with falling snow adding to the mix of hazardous driving conditions. A coastal flood advisory has been posted for the coastline though no significant coastal flood impacts are expected outside of some minor splashover in exceptionally vulnerable spots. Precip will wind down tomorrow afternoon from SW to NE and by sundown the entire area should be dry with slightly cooler air moving in.

Here’s my latest snow forecast. I think 10″ will be a stretch even for the mountains but I definitely think we’ll see many 8-9″ amounts out of that area. Otherwise not much has changed.

Here are some helpful links to follow the storm

NWS Gray

NWS Gray Winter Weather Page

NWS Gray Radar

Kachelmann Swiss HD Model (new data arrives early AM)

Satellite/Radar Maps

SPC Mesoscale Analysis

Kachelmann Satellite

More tomorrow morning.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature cold temps, increasing clouds, and dry conditions as high pressure slides south and east ahead of our next storm system. Current temps this morning range from 9 above in Portland to 2 below at several mountain locations. These temps will warm quite a bit today but still won’t get warm per se. Highs will range from 20 in the north to 30 in the south. Skies will begin mainly clear but will become overcast by this evening as low pressure approaches from the west.

I went over the dynamics of the storm in detail yesterday morning and little has changed since then. The basic overview is that snow will move into the area very late tonight and will become moderate to heavy by tomorrow morning. By mid morning tomorrow, warm air will be pushing onshore and causing the snow to mix with rain along the coast. Farther inland, moderate to heavy snow will continue until the system moves out mid afternoon tomorrow. My updated snow map is below.

A period of freezing rain is also possible along the coast tomorrow. While accumulations won’t amount to much (>.1″), the additional coat of ice will make travel even more hazardous tomorrow during the morning commute.

No more significant storms are on the horizon this week but a shot of very cold air looks likely for the latter part of the week. By Thursday/Friday, high temps may struggle to reach 15 degrees even in the south.

-Jack