Moderate Snow Storm Incoming Tomorrow

Hello everyone!

Just a quick update on tomorrow’s snow forecast to arrive tonight and continue into early tomorrow afternoon. Not a whole lot has changed since this morning but here are my latest thoughts. I explained the dynamics at play in a post yesterday morning and the factors I outlined there are still at play. If you’re interested on learning a little more about the “why behind the what”, be sure to check that out. Otherwise, here’s a brief outline of what to expect in the next 24 hours.

HRRR Showing Snow Arriving Late Tonight. Credit: Weatherbell
HRRR Showing Snow Arriving Late Tonight. Credit: Weatherbell

Light snow will arrive late tonight from SW to NE and by dawn everyone will be seeing light snow with 1-3″ of accumulation. Between 7 and 8 AM, the coastal front (aka rain snow line) will begin moving onshore. Exactly how far it makes it remains unknown but for those on the warm side, expect a change to rain mid morning with accumulations limited to 1-3″. For those on the cold side, snow will pick up in intensity during this time with more snow expected.

Swiss HD Model Showing A Sharp Coastal Front Tomorrow Morning. Credit: Kachelmann
Swiss HD Model Showing A Sharp Coastal Front Tomorrow Morning. Credit: Kachelmann

The exact position of the coastal front remains unknown but it’s a good bet that the midcoast will be on the warm side and I-95 will be on the cold side (outside of York County). In between (Portland, Yarmouth, Brunswick, etc.) the forecast remains more or less a tossup if the front works inland before the precip departs. If it does, look for a period of rain that will keep snowfall to 2-3″. If not, snowfall could keep piling up into the 4-6″ range. Regardless, a period of sleet and/or freezing rain is likely right at the tail end of the event which should be between noon and 3 PM.

Current NWS Warning/Advisory Products. The Coast Is Also Under A Coastal Flood Advisory Which Isn't Shown On The Map. Credit: NWS
Current NWS Warning/Advisory Products. The Coast Is Also Under A Coastal Flood Advisory Which Isn’t Shown On The Map. Credit: NWS

Winter storm warnings (pink) and winter weather advisories (purple) are posted for various parts of the area. Roads will be extremely slippery during the AM commute tomorrow with falling snow adding to the mix of hazardous driving conditions. A coastal flood advisory has been posted for the coastline though no significant coastal flood impacts are expected outside of some minor splashover in exceptionally vulnerable spots. Precip will wind down tomorrow afternoon from SW to NE and by sundown the entire area should be dry with slightly cooler air moving in.

Updated Snow Map.
Updated Snow Map.

Here’s my latest snow forecast. I think 10″ will be a stretch even for the mountains but I definitely think we’ll see many 8-9″ amounts out of that area. Otherwise not much has changed.

Here are some helpful links to follow the storm

NWS Gray

NWS Gray Winter Weather Page

NWS Gray Radar

Kachelmann Swiss HD Model (new data arrives early AM)

Satellite/Radar Maps

SPC Mesoscale Analysis

Kachelmann Satellite

More tomorrow morning.

-Jack

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