Last week’s torchfest appears to have caught up to itself and the large scale pattern has about 1-1.5 weeks left to support warmth before comeback time can begin. In the meantime, as is almost always the case in Maine, a sneaky backdoor cold front will thwart any attempts to get much above 35 or so. That front will pass without incident tonight and by tomorrow morning, a high Arctic high will be locked in over NE Canada while low pressure tries to press up the Ohio Valley. This will result in some snow, more on that in a later update hopefully tonight.
As for today’s weather, look for more of the same. Skies will be mainly clear, temps will be cool but not frigid, and nothing will fall from the sky (at least no precipitation, can’t guarantee all those icicles stay where they are). Look for temps in the mid 20’s north and low to mid 30’s south. Some clouds could filter into the area by this evening as that front discussed above drifts closer.
Not much to say about today’s weather. It will be mainly sunny with cool temps and light winds. Highs will top out around 15 in the north and around 25 in the south as cold high pressure drifts overhead. No precip is expected. Warmer weather will return as we head into the next work week with some light precip arriving with it. Halftime rolls on but comeback time is on the horizon.
Today will feature more sun than clouds as a cold front has moved offshore and colder air is moving in. Look for temps to fall from their current readings in the 30’s down into the 10’s and 20’s by evening. By tomorrow morning, many areas could be below zero. Winds will be gusty today out of the NW and gusts to 30mph are possible. This will make those falling temps feel a lot colder.
If you’re sad the weather is back to what it should be doing in January, fear not, there’s another week or two of mostly bland weather on the horizon. After that, it’s comeback time.
Today will feature a taste of the weather you can usually find around here in April. That good old-fashioned half warm half cold with rain, fog, drizzle, and a steady S/SW breeze. Look for highs around 40 in the north and around 50 in the south with rain showers off and on through the day. Skies will be mostly cloudy though a break of sun cannot be ruled out as this system is hardly strong or well-organized. In addition to the rain, drizzle and fog will be widespread adding to the complete and utter joy that is a January thaw.
The second half should begin in 11-15 days. Enjoy this warmth while it lasts.
Today will feature the beginning of our January thaw. Look for rain to move out early this morning before drier weather for this afternoon. Temps will be extremely warm for this time of year with highs near 40 north and approaching 50 south. SW breezes will keep the mild air coming throughout the day.
Congratulations on creating some beautiful bare ground, those who like this stuff.
Today will feature increasing clouds along with warming temps and the chance for precip by the evening hours. Look for highs ranging from 15-20 in the north to a hair above freezing in the south. Precip will be arriving tonight and there may be some flurries/sprinkles this evening before the steadier stuff arrives overnight. Precip is expected to be of the frozen variety in the mountains, the liquid variety along the coast, and a mix of both in between. Snow could accumulate 3-6″ in the mountains while everyone else may see a coating before a switch to freezing rain or rain.
Today will feature cold weather. It’s hard to say much else because there isn’t much else to say. Look for mainly sunny skies and light WNW breezes along with very cold temps. Current temps range from -15 near the Canadian border to a whopping +7 in Biddeford. Highs will recover fairly well all thins considered but still won’t feel warm per se. Look for temps topping out at around +5 in the north and around +15 in the south.
If you’re wishing for some warmer weather, congratulations on putting a damper on the ski season! A January thaw is in the forecast from Wednesday through Friday which will bring warmer temps and precip of the liquid variety.
A few days ago, I talked about how the weather this week would feel a lot like the tundra, that cold, dry, windy landscape just south of the Arctic. We’ve had some cold, not a whole lot of snow, and some wind but nothing truly tundra worthy yet. That will change in a hurry today.
Look for a mix of sun and clouds today with more sun than clouds along the coast and more clouds than sun in the mountains. Winds will be quite gusty out of the NW as yesterday’s storm moves out to sea and drags in cold air behind it. Gusts to 30mph will make things feel even chillier than they are, and actual temps will be pretty chilly. Highs will range from 0 in the far north and at elevation to a whopping 15 along the coast. Wind chills will be well below zero for everyone involved and by the time actual temps dive into the -10’s in the mountains tonight, wind chills could approach -30. Bundle up!
We enjoy this Arctic airmass for a few days before a brief warmup associated with a storm passing to our west on Wednesday. This will likely involve some snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain depending on location.
I was hoping to get an update on this evening’s system out last night but other commitments prevented that so here’s a quick rundown of my thinking and why we’re not going to see a significant event.
12Z Weather Balloon Data Showing Very Dry Air In Place. Image Credit: SPC
One inhibitor of large snowfall accumulations will be ample dry air ahead of the storm that will evaporate some of the snow before it can reach the ground. A good inch or two worth of snow could be lost to mid level dry air. Do notice though that the entire atmosphere is plenty cold enough for snow. There is zero threat of any mixing with this storm but there are plenty of other forecast challenges to make things interesting!
10 AM 500mb Winds. Image Credit: Nullschool
Looking at the mid levels, it is fairly easy to see why we’re not in for a big storm and why the highest snowfall amounts will be along the coast. Both disturbances associated with the storm are positively tilted and separate while winds ahead of the system are out of the WSW which pushes the storm ENE. There is some respectable divergence (winds blowing away from each other) over the system but the setup lacks the explosive dynamics needed for a stronger storm that tracks farther west. Development of these dynamics will occur eventually but too late for us. Drive to New Brunswick or Nova Scotia for those.
10 AM Upper Level Wind Map. Image Credit: SPC
Upper level dynamics are similar to the mid level dynamics: modestly favorable but not explosive. The storm is in the right entrance region of a very strong but low amplitude jet streak. There is only one jet and no jet coupling meaning that we lack the explosive dynamics needed for a strong storm. This is the same story across all levels of the atmosphere and explains why we’re not in for any big snow. However, that doesn’t mean some areas won’t get a moderate storm.
10 AM 700mb Analysis. Image Credit: SPC
A look towards the mid levels shows pretty much the same story with one exception. Notice all the WSW flow and the positively tilted troughs but also notice the kink in the flow right over the storm itself. This kink will gradually sharpen and develop along with SE winds ahead of it. The timely development of these SE winds will be crucial to pulling the deeper moisture NW towards our area. If the kink intensifies more quickly, the SE winds will as well, and the moisture will be able to move NW therefore giving us more snow. If the kink lags in development, the opposite will be true.
Kachelmann Swiss Model Showing Expected Impacts This Evening. Image Credit: Kachelmann
Now that we’ve dug into all the dynamics behind this storm and what some of them mean, we can focus on impacts. This map from the Kachelmann Swiss model shows how the coast will see the moderate snow, the foothills the lighter snow, and the mountains only flurries. Also notice the bands of ocean enhanced snowfall across eastern MA as Arctic air currently over ME is drawn across the warm Gulf of Maine waters on NE winds ahead of the storm. In those heavy bands, over a foot of snow is possible along with blizzard conditions. This will be limited to eastern/coastal MA and no impacts that significant are forecast for the ME or NH coastlines.
HRRR Showing How Snow Evolves Over The Next 18 Hours. Credit: Weatherbell
Snow will arrive in the next hour across southern NH and will be falling across the ME coast by sundown this evening. Notice how the mountains see hardly anything while the coast enjoys moderate snowfall. Also check out all the ocean enhancement as bitterly cold air gets drawn into the storm and passes over the warm Gulf of Maine. The snow will move out in the predawn hours as the storm moves farther offshore.
Expected Snowfall Through Tomorrow Morning
Here’s my snowfall forecast for tomorrow. This will be a light/fluffy snow that will be easy to move, both by human and by wind. With steady northerly winds, some blowing snow is certainly possible which could create lower visibilities and some drifting in exposed areas though nothing major is expected.
Another cold few days are in store before a brief warmup mid week as low pressure passes to the west.
Today’s update will come in two parts. This one now will give a quick forecast synopsis for the day just like usual. The second one which will come later this morning will be a little deeper look into the coastal storm that’s set to graze us this evening and into tonight.
Today will feature chilly temps and a cold north wind as a coastal storm develops to our south. Look for highs in the low 10’s north and the low 20’s south under mostly cloudy skies. Snow will arrive around noon in southern NH and progress slowly NE through the day arriving along the midcosat this evening. Almost everyone should see some flakes though the far north may miss out altogether. There will be a sharp cutoff between a dusting in the foothills to as much as a half foot along the shorelines. I’ll have all the details in a midday update. Winds will remain steady out of the north and some blowing/drifting of snow will result in reduced visibilities even though no heavy snow is expected. Snow moves out early tomorrow morning.
Forecasterjack 