All posts by Jack Sillin

I’m a third-year atmospheric science student at Cornell University who has been blogging about the weather since 2011. While I’m not officially a meteorologist, I have accumulated a bit of experience forecasting both local weather (in western Maine and New Hampshire) as well as national/international weather during my time writing for weather.us and weathermodels.com. I also have experience programming in Python, teaching concepts in weather forecasting, and communicating forecast information to general audiences.

A Beautiful Early Fall Day Today

Hello everyone!

After what’s seemed like an endless stretch of miserable heat and humidity, we have in the forecast today some weather that’s just plain awesome. Dry conditions are expected through the day as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest. Southern and southwestern areas will see overcast skies as some warm air tries to start moving back in aloft, but northern and northeastern areas will see full sunshine. High temps will be refreshing, ranging from 60 in the mountains to 70 along the coastal plain. The cherry on top of today’s forecast can be found in the dew point forecast, which ranges from 32 in central areas to 50 in far southern NH.

Enjoy this, we’ve earned it!

As a quick side note, you’ll likely be hearing more and more about a tropical system named Florence out in the open Atlantic in the coming days. The storm is headed for the East Coast, but if the center does end up making it onshore, it would be well to our south. If you have friends/family along the Southeast US coast, make sure they’re tuned into the latest forecast updates, and have their hurricane plan ready. I’ve already told my family in North Carolina that this weekend is the time to stock up on supplies, and prepare for possible hurricane impacts.

For important decision making, always consult official NHC forecasts. If you’re merely curious about some of the processes going on “under the hood”, feel free to check out my weather.us blogs about the system. I’ll be writing another update today with the latest details.

-Jack

Refreshing Weather Today

Hello everyone!

Yesterday’s thunderstorms did do some damage across the region, but they were also beneficial in bringing a cooler and drier airmass into the region. We’ll be enjoying that airmass today, with highs topping out in the upper 60’s north and mid 70’s south. More importantly, dew points will drop into the low 50’s. Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with no precip expected.

-Jack

Showers And Thunderstorms Mark The End Of The Oppressive Heat And Humidity Today

Hello everyone!

It’s going to be a great day across Western Maine and New Hampshire, and across the rest of the Northeast for that matter. A cold front will be marching through, with showers and thunderstorms along it escorting the oppressive heat and humidity out of the region. Behind the front, Northwesterly winds will begin to usher in cooler and drier air, as Mother Nature becomes slightly less oblivious to the fact that we are now in meteorological fall.

The front is currently located between the Saint Lawrence River, and the Canadian/US border, as of 5:45. Showers along the front are just beginning to move into far NW parts of Maine at this hour, and those showers should be expected to continue moving east through the next few hours as the front drops in.

Farther southeast, we’ll have a few hours to heat the atmosphere up before the front arrives. The farther southeast you go, the longer this window will be. By the time the front arrives along the coast, a considerable amount of instability will have built up, with strong to potentially severe thunderstorms becoming a concern as a result. The most likely area for these storms will be southeast of a line running from Rockland to Lewiston to Keene NH, though not everyone in this area will get a storm. Gusty winds and hail are both potential threats with these storms, in addition to heavy rain and lightning.

Temperatures today will also be determined by the timing of the frontal passage. The mountains, which will see the front arrive this morning, will top out only in the low 70’s. Southern New Hampshire, which will wait until the mid afternoon to see the front, will get all the way up into the low 90’s, with oppressive humidity sticking around as well.

Everyone sees cooler and drier air by sunset tonight, with an absolutely amazing stretch of early fall weather forecast heading into the weekend.

-Jack

Another Hot And Humid Day Today

Hello everyone!

More hot and humid weather is in the forecast today as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. There’s a fair amount of cloud cover moving across the region this morning, with radar picking up on a few showers in the mountains. That should clear out by the early afternoon, with a trend towards sunnier skies and drier conditions. The heat and humidity may be enough to fuel a brief pop up shower or thunderstorm in the mountains, but otherwise look for mainly dry weather through the evening.

How hot will it get today? Look for highs ranging from around 90 in southern NH to 85 in areas NE of Augusta. Typically cooler areas along the coast will enjoy temps in the mid to upper 70’s. Dew points in the mid to upper 60’s won’t be quite as brutally oppressive as recent days, but will still make for uncomfortably muggy conditions.

Cooler and drier air arrives tomorrow.

-Jack

Slightly Less Hot And Humid Today

Hello everyone!

Today’s weather will vary quite a bit across the region, with southern NH holding on to oppressive heat and humidity, while areas northeast of Augusta enjoy a much drier airmass. The one thing the entire region will have in common will be partly to mostly sunny skies, with the most sunshine found downwind of the mountains as weak NW flow sets up a weak upslope/downslope regime.

In the satellite loop linked above, you can see some clouds moving southeastward near Augusta. This is the boundary that will bring drier air to the northeastern half of the region today. It will eventually run out of steam, with southwestern areas remaining very muggy.

Highs today will be split along the typical upslope/downslope lines where the coastal plain sees highs in the mid 80’s (SW NH a bit warmer) and the mountains remains cooler in the mid 70’s.

Dry conditions are expected across the area today in the absence of moisture extending past the low levels.

-Jack

Hot And Humid Weather Returns Today

Hello everyone!

Unfortunately, heat and humidity is making a return for the unofficial last day of summer. Southwesterly breezes will bring temps up to near 90 for most of the area, with slightly cooler temps along the Midcoast and up in the mountains. Dew points in the low 70’s will send heat index temps up to near 100 in the south and 90-95 farther north. This heat can be dangerous if you’re not careful, so stay hydrated and be smart about what you’re doing during the heat of the day.

Most of the area will be dry through the evening hours, with the exception being the mountains where showers and thunderstorms will pop up along an approaching front. Most of the storms will be non-severe with heavy rain and lightning being the main threats, though some gusty winds can’t be ruled out.

-Jack

A Bit Warmer Today

Hello everyone!

Today will be a bit warmer as high pressure slips southeast off the coast, and we begin to get the “return flow” on its western side. Look for temps to top out in the low 70’s in our typical mountain and coastal cool spots, with low 80’s in our typical southern NH/SW ME warm spots. As this warm air filters in, look for a general increase in cloudiness. Fog and low clouds will burn off this morning, but mid/high clouds will continue to move by overhead through the afternoon. There’s a slight chance for a late day shower in the mountains, but otherwise expect mainly dry conditions to continue.

-Jack

Forecasterjack Is Back!

Hello everyone!

Thanks to your extremely generous support, Forecasterjack is back! Starting today, I’ll once again be posting daily weather updates for Western Maine and New Hampshire, and that will continue as long as its sustainable with everything else I’m juggling. We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it though, so here’s today’s forecast.

Today will feature more clouds than sun generally speaking as moisture moving in from the west runs into a dry area of high pressure to our northeast. Western parts of New Hampshire will be the cloudiest, while northeastern parts of Maine will see the most sun. A very brief sprinkle is about all I’d expect to fall from these clouds, and even that is fairly unlikely for most areas.

The cloud cover will team up with onshore winds to keep temps fairly low today. Look for highs to top out within a few degrees of 70 for most spots, with southern NH and parts of Maine NE of Augusta likely a little warmer (low-mid 70’s).

-Jack

Support Forecasterjack

Hello everyone!
Thanks to the incredible generosity of a number of folks who enjoy reading the blog, I’ve been able to justify continuing to put the work in each morning to provide accurate weather information for Western Maine and New Hampshire. If you were part of that effort, thanks! I’ll plan to keep the forecasting up for the foreseeable future.
If you haven’t yet donated, but are interested, check out my Patreon page here. Even just a buck or two is hugely appreciated.
Last year I put the money raised on the Patreon page towards getting school supplies for the semester, as well as the adventures that keep my friends and I sane amidst the endless slog of homework and exams, including sunrise hiking in the Whites and a night spent up in the Catskills over fall break.
This year, with the cost of college steadily climbing, the money brought in by this project will go directly towards paying for college and all the expenses that are part of going to school. This includes tuition, fees, transportation to and from school, and textbooks. If all goes well, there might even be a few bucks left over for a pizza or two.
Many thanks again for everyone’s support both of Forecasterjack as a project, and of me as a student of meteorology!
-Jack

A Note On The Future Of Forecasterjack

Hello everyone!

I’ve been posting weather forecasts here on forecasterjack.com since 2011. Since that time, the page has grown from a place to ramble about something 11-year-old me was casually interested in, to a dependable source of weather information for Western Maine and New Hampshire. Each morning, I work to bring you the most reliable forecast I can, communicated clearly and concisely. That takes effort on my part, and that effort is something I’ve been more than happy to put in.

That being said, I’m heading off to college at Cornell University this fall, and the workload associated with that education will mean I have to be a little more selective about what I choose to spend my limited time and energy on. That doesn’t mean that forecasterjack will be an impossible lift, but instead that to make it viable, it’s going to be important to get something out of it. Getting up an extra half hour-hour early to forecast weather a few hundred miles away for free isn’t something I’m going to be able to do. But if a few folks each pitch in a few bucks, and continuing to post means having enough spare change to buy my friends and me pizza on a Friday night, or put gas in the car to get to the ski mountain on a Saturday? That’s a tradeoff I’d be happy to make.

So if you’re willing to chip in a few bucks to keep these forecasts coming, please head on over to my Patreon page. If enough people chip in to make the continuation of posts worthwhile, I’ll keep posting each morning (or if I’m away, I will post a forecast a couple days in advance so you’re always informed).
Either way, I won’t be posting during the rest of August as I head off on an orientation hiking trip and get settled into life at Cornell. During that time, remain informed about the weather by heading on over to weather.us and typing your town into the search box on the homepage. The data comes straight from models, so it won’t be perfect, but then again my forecasts aren’t perfect either. Be sure to check out the “Forecast XL” and “Forecast Ensemble” options to compare different model forecasts for a sense of forecast uncertainty. If all the models agree, you can be pretty confident in their forecast. If the models don’t agree, take their forecast with a grain of salt.
Whether or not Forecasterjack continues this fall, I want to thank everyone who has read my forecasts on here over the past 7 (!) years. Your support and encouragement has helped me do what I do today, and I am extremely grateful. Working on this project has provided me with tons of inspiration, and has helped turn a casual childhood interest into a full fledged passion, complete with tons of plans for the future. Even if it doesn’t end up working out to continue posting daily updates this fall, I’ll keep the site up, and will send out a quick note if a particularly intense storm is heading towards Maine.
-Jack