Hello everyone!

Another lovely summer day on the coast of Maine is coming to an end and for better or for worse, we have many more lined up in the coming week. Highs today rose into the low to mid 80’s and with sunny skies and light winds, it was picture perfect. The one issue with such lovely weather is that we’re not making any progress in erasing our 3-6″+ rainfall deficit across southern areas. At this point, we really need a week of good steady rains to replenish water supplies. Sadly, as of now, we do not appear to have such an opportunity in the next 7-10 days.

Look for a nearly carbon copy of today tomorrow with only slightly warmer temps and only slightly higher humidity. A shower or two could pop up tomorrow across the northern half of the area but as with today, mainly dry conditions are expected. As I mentioned earlier, while it will be lovely for outdoor activities, we really do need the rain.

Friday will feature increasing clouds, heat, and humidity as a cold front begins to near. More isolated showers and storms are possible north and west but another mainly dry day is in the forecast. Highs will climb to near 90 for most with cooler temps in the north and along the coast.

Saturday has the chance to be our most active day of the next 7 as a cold front crosses the area. The timing of the front remains more or less up in the air and when exactly it crosses the region will play a big part in determining if we have a shot at strong to severe storms or not. The later in the day the front crosses, the better chance we have for strong storms. If the front crosses in the morning, look for just showers and maybe an isolated rumble. If the front crosses in the afternoon, scattered showers and storms are likely.

If the front waits until the late evening to begin entering western ME and NH, a fairly widespread severe weather day is possible. The upper level dynamics (trigger and organizer) look solid, the biggest question is instability which is why the timing of the front is so important. You can see how a difference of 6 hours between the GFS (upper map) and the NAM (lower map) means the difference between tons of instability and big storms, and nothing at all. I’ll continue to analyze the pattern in the coming days and see if I can figure out exactly when that front will show up on our doorstep.

Sunday will bring the chance for a spot shower as some upper level energy rotates through. Cooler and drier air will be filtering in during this time on breezy NW winds. The cool, dry air will stick around for Monday and Tuesday, both of which look awesome. The comfortable weather doesn’t last long as developing SW flow looks to bring more heat and humidity as we head into the middle and latter parts of next week.

As we’ve seen several times this summer so far, the only way to kick big heat out of New England is to bring some boomahs in so we’ll be watching for possible severe weather when that heat breaks in a couple weeks. Until then, enjoy the cool weather while it’s here, and keep cool when it’s hot. The dog days of summer are here so hit the beach while you can, winter is right around the corner and by the end of next month, snow will have sat on the slopes of Sunday River. We live in Maine, after all.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature mainly sunny skies, light winds, and warm temps as high pressure crests over the region. Look for highs rising into the low to mid 80’s for most with a few upper 70’s in the far north and along the coast. Most of us will enjoy a dry day today with the exception of the far northern mountains where an afternoon shower or storm is possible. No severe weather is expected but watch out for a stray lightning strike in that area along with brief downpours.

Warmer and more humid conditions build in for later this week before a cold front brings showers and storms Saturday. Gusty NW winds cool us off for Sunday and into early next week but by the middle of next week, heat and humidity look to be on the rise again.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Both temps and humidity will bottom out tonight for the forseeable future and we will be on an upward trajectory for the rest of the week, reaching the low 90’s in SW areas by Saturday. Saturday will be our peak in terms of both heat and humidity with upper 80’s to low 90’s in terms of temps and dew points in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. For all those who are anxiously watching the Beach to Beacon forecast, it does not look like great running weather. If you do happen to be running, feel free to say hi post race in the nearest part of the ocean. I’ll be running too. 

The temp/dew point trace looks basically the same as it did yesterday (this is a new graph, I promise!). The theme of the next seven days will be warming to storms Saturday before cooling heading into next week. Rain will be possible Thursday and Friday afternoons in the form of widely scattered storms especially in the mountains. More widespread showers/storms are possible Saturday before scattered showers return to the mountains Sunday and then everyone stays dry into Monday. Ignore that the GFS has little rain Saturday and more Sunday, there appear to be some issues with it’s convective parameterization. I used the graphic more to illustrate the temp theme and when rain was possible.

A cold front will be drifting our way Saturday as an upper level low drifts over Northern Quebec. The pattern aloft does not support widespread severe weather as there is little upper level energy (left panel) in our area when the cold front is arriving (surface map on right). The greatest uncertainty remains with the timing of this front. The lack of strong upper level energy to push the front along makes me want to lean a little slower on the front meaning it would likely come through Saturday evening from NW to SE. Some guidance has it moving through earlier in the day Saturday but as I said, I would lean a little slower for now.

Cool, dry air will be carried in on breezy NW winds Sunday which will introduce the typical upslope/downslope regime with clouds and showers in the mountains and sunny skies to the SE. Cooler and drier weather is expected to continue into the early part of next week.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature mainly sunny skies, slightly warmer temps, and the continued need for the raincoat/umbrella to be on standby. Look for high temps in the 70’s for most with a few low 80’s possible across SW NH. Much sunnier skies are expected today with just partly cloudy skies expected. The exception to this will be Southern NH and where a band of showers is currently moving through along with some overcast skies.

As for precip, there will be two phases. The first phase will primarily be to our south over MA, CT, and RI where a band of showers and thunderstorms has brought some minor flooding to Springfield MA. The northern edge of that will clip Southern NH and perhaps the southern tip of York County but will otherwise remain safely south of us. The other impact that will stretch only slightly farther north will be some clouds which should move out by mid to late morning.

The second phase of precip will arrive in the form of pop up showers this afternoon. This morning’s HRRR run does a good job of showing that at any one time, most places stay dry while only a few see rain. This means that outdoor plans are a go if you’re prepared to either duck inside for 5 minutes or get a little wet should a shower find your favorite recreational spot. No storms are expected.

Expect a warming trend through late week with stifling heat and humidity returning for Friday and Saturday before storms Saturday evening usher in cool, Canadian air for the beginning of next week.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Quieter weather is in store for the next 4 or so days as the weak mess of upper level energy that has kept clouds and showers in the forecast these past few days moves slowly to the east. Expect a clearing and warming trend through the end of the week with uncomfortable heat and humidity returning by Friday. Showers and storms are again likely Saturday as a cold front moves through. The timing of that front remains uncertain and just how strong those storms get will depend on exactly when that front moves through. More details will become available as the week goes on and I’ll pass those along as soon as I figure them out.

Since the weather looks fairly quiet until the highly uncertain forecast next weekend, this will be a fairly quick post. The 12Z GFS shows the general trends over the next week with cool and cloudy conditions now (grey/green on the far right) giving way to clearing and warming towards the end of the week. The red line is the temp trace and I added the purple arrow to show temps increasing with time (time goes from right to left on this graphic with the right hand side being now and the far left being next weekend). Temps and humidity (green line) peaks Friday (purple box) before cooling off towards next week (note descending temp trend at the far left of the image). The biggest chance for precip will be Saturday with those potential storms. Gusty NW winds are likely to usher in a period of cool, dry weather for early next week.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature mainly cloudy skies, light ENE winds, and the continued chance for showers. A band of rain is moving E across south-central VT this morning and will continue to meander in our direction through the morning and heading into this afternoon. That band of rain will be weakening as it moves away from the most favorable upper level dynamics but it will bring steadier rain into the forecast for at least the southern half of the area. Farther north and east, scattered showers are expected to pop up and down all day with the best chance towards the midcoast where a few showers are currently being reported. A light but steady onshore wind will keep temps cool and drizzle/fog in the mix for most of the area. Highs will only get into the low 70’s at best with some areas stuck in the upper 60’s. Far northern areas may see a little bit of sun but otherwise overcast conditions are expected.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature mainly cloudy skies across the area as well as the chance for showers in south western areas. Look for showers trying to work into southern areas but dry high pressure to the north will keep any steady or heavy rain confined to far SW NH and points SW. Far NE areas are likely to stay dry and could also see some sunny breaks as high pressure remains in control. For the rest of the area, we’re in the battleground between high and low pressure which means cloudy skies and on and off drizzle/light rain can be expected. Temps look to remain cool as clouds and onshore flow prevent any significant heating. The warmest temps will be found in NE areas where at least some sun is likely to get through. Highs there will likely rise into the upper 70’s to near 80 while SW areas under the influence of onshore flow and cloudy skies will likely stay stuck in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

If this were December, we’d have quite an interesting setup tomorrow. Sadly, it’s the end of July which means that instead of a fascinating concoction of rain, sleet, snow, and ice, we will be experiencing a dull, cool, drizzly, cloudy, showery day. Low pressure to the west will try to sling some tropical moisture our way but dry Canadian high pressure will be playing goalie and doing a fairly job blocking any shots of heavy rain thrown our way. The end result will be a day where conditions will vary greatly depending on location with the nicest (least dreary?) weather north and west and the worst (least nice) weather south and west.

A weak area of low pressure is currently drifting NE out of the Ohio Valley and into western PA. A warm front extends out ahead of it into Southern New England while a cold front trails it into the Midwest. Most importantly for our forecast is the high to the north. That high will constantly feed cool, dry air into the region as tropical moisture tries to stream north (as I said, if only it was December!). If upper level winds were strong enough and the flow amplified (wavy) enough, it might not matter but a look at this morning’s upper air analysis reveals why our chances for a super soaking are super low (if not zero).

Winds aloft over North America are still generally blowing out of the WNW. This is slowly changing as a disturbance drops south into the Pacific NW (that disturbance (red line) may bring showers and storms next weekend) but for now, our disturbance for tomorrow (blue line) still has little room to amplify and move north. The lack of strong upper level forcing means that the dry high pressure over northern Maine will likely win the day and prevent any steady, heavy rain from impacting Northern New England (southern New England has a better chance at heavier showers/storms as they are closer to the moisture). That doesn’t mean that you’re good to go the beach though, we likely do see at least some rain.

This map is valid at 10 AM tomorrow morning and is showing light rain/drizzle over SW ME and most of NH with heavier rain towards SW SNE and the Mid Atlantic states. Drizzle/light rain and fog are likely to be the name of the game tomorrow as onshore flow develops in between the high to the north and the low to the south/west. Aside from lots of drizzle/light rain, not a lot is expected to happen outside of southern NH and perhaps York County Maine. In that area, pockets of heavier rain are likely with a rumble or two of thunder possible. In terms of total rainfall amounts, a general .1 to .25″ is likely SW of the black line. NE of the black line, lesser amounts are likely with many far northern areas getting little or nothing in terms of rainfall. Some pockets of a half inch are possible across SW NH with up to .75″ possible if any downpours develop and decide not to move for a while. While this rain is better than nothing, we will need something a lot bigger to erase our 3-6″+ deficit and the accompanying moderate/severe drought conditions across SW areas.

The best way to get that rainfall in the summer would be through a tropical system of some sort. There are a couple weak disturbances down in the tropics that I am keeping an eye on but it is highly unlikely we see any tropical drought easing in the next 10 days.

Our next chance for rain will arrive next weekend when the disturbance over the Pacific NW moves across Canada and joins up with the remains of a storm currently south of Alaska. I’ll be watching that this week and will have more updates as we get closer.

I’ll have a morning update tomorrow but will be heading to Boston for much of the afternoon and thus won’t have time for an evening update.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature mainly sunny skies, cooler temps, and lower humidity. A lovely day is in store across the area as temps climb to right around 80 before a sea breeze cools things off at the coast. Farther inland, temps will remain in the low 80’s. Dew points will be settling into the comfortable range as light NW breezes bring in dry Canadian air. Skies will be mainly sunny with just a few late day clouds possible in western areas.

Enjoy it! More clouds and showers are possible tomorrow.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

A leftover shower is possible tonight as another cold front rolls offshore but other than that, the next 24-48 hours look to be a continuation of our recent dry pattern. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70’s to low 80’s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Cooler temps are expected for Sunday as more clouds and possibly showers are expected to roll in. How many people saw rain today? Not a lot. The drier GFS scenario worked out as a cluster of thunderstorms south of Southern New England kept any significant moisture too far south for tropical deluges in Southern New England and too far south even for light to moderate rain for Southern Maine. Some parts of Southern NH did get a period of much needed rain this morning but much more will be needed to erase the current rainfall deficit which is in the 3-6″+ range. Will we get another chance at rain here in Maine and New Hampshire? Guidance is hinting at more rain Sunday into Monday but I’m skeptical for the same reasons I was about this morning’s event. Most of these doubts stem from the pattern we are currently in across North America.

The general pattern across North America is dominated by upper level low pressure from the NW Territories to Northern Quebec/Labrador. A heat dome is located over the SW US and a subtropical ridge extends to the east of that into the Atlantic and west into the Pacific. The reason that low pressure in the Yukon and High pressure in Arizona is important to us in Maine is that in between those systems, the winds are primarily out of the WNW (black arrows). The disturbance to be watched for Sunday/Monday is the blue line over the central US. Guidance indicates that it will drift NE and intensify as it approaches us. I don’t fully believe the degree to which the models are amplifying it because the pattern indicates that it will tend to zoom south and out to sea just like the disturbance before it did this morning. Now, I do believe we have a better chance of rain Sunday/Monday than we did this morning because of the little pocket of calm winds this disturbance is currently sitting in (red lines). The NW flow is being diverted around the disturbance and so it won’t feel the full effects of the NW winds. This makes me think that we have a better chance to get at least a little moisture up here, perhaps enough to drop a quarter or half inch of much needed rain in the form of widespread showers or possibly even some steady rain.

More details will become available in the coming days and this remains a fairly uncertain forecast so if you have outdoor plans Sunday or Monday, I would simply keep an eye and ear out for the latest info in the coming days before making a decision.

-Jack