Hello everyone!
Today will be a lot like yesterday perhaps a bit cloudier though. Low level clouds have pushed to the bases of the mountains this morning leaving most of the area with cloudy/foggy conditions. These clouds will limit high temps to the 40’s for most with 50’s inland, also very similar to yesterday.
Rain arrives tomorrow.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Today will feature low clouds for most this morning as residual moisture from yesterday’s storm is slow to leave. Temps today will depend on how fast the clouds leave. For those who see things clear out quickest, temps will rise into the low to mid 50’s. This is most likely outside the mountains but away from the coast. The mountains and the coast likely see clouds clear out a little later and temps rising into the 40’s.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Cold air has blasted a bit farther south than expected and persistent freezing drizzle last night has created icy conditions region wide, including the coast. Winds are out of the north for everyone and everything will continue to be slick until those winds shift. Use caution this morning while driving to work/school. Many schools are either closed or delayed this morning so check with local media to see if you’ve been given a break today. Highs will depend hugely on if the cold can get scoured out. If it can, temps rise into the 40’s/low 50’s. If if can’t, we’re stuck at 32 all day. My bets are on the cold air sticking. Heavier precip moves in mid morning and could help to warm things up a bit but for now, I think temps for most away from the immediate coast are stuck near 32 until late this afternoon when a cold front can mix out the low level cold.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
A cold front yesterday has done its job well and cold air now lies in place across the region. Low pressure from the plains is moving across the Southern Great Lakes on its way to Maine. The forecast from last evening remains more or less on track. The forecast for today worked out great with light snow/sleet falling area wide with widespread coatings reported. Easterly and north-easterly winds will bring moisture in off the ocean tonight and as a result, drizzle and freezing drizzle will develop in patches area wide tonight which will result in slick conditions where temps are below 32F (Everywhere except southern York County).
Here’s the surface map showing the setup. Look for drizzle/freezing drizzle tonight and early tomorrow followed by steady rain/freezing rain depending on location and surface temps. Temps aloft are quite toasty and thus snow will be isolated to far northern areas early tomorrow morning. The morning commute does look to be slippery as freezing rain and sleet create an icy layer on the roads. With ice accumulation remaining generally under a quarter inch, power disruptions are unlikely.
Here’s what I expect for impacts. I’ve moved more areas near the coast into the freezing rain zone as warm air will be hard pressed to scour out the cold in place. The greatest impacts will be inland but areas even near Route 1 are definitely at risk for slick travel tomorrow morning. While the immediate coastline will change to rain fairly quickly, the morning commute especially early is likely to feature slick spots. While this won’t be a high impact event, widespread slick travel is likely tomorrow for the morning commute everywhere and for the evening commute away from the immediate coastline.
Here’s how the HRRR thinks things go down tomorrow. WARNING: This model likely underestimates the sticking mower of cold air. While the immediate coastline likely does see the bulk of precip in the form of rain, most inland areas especially the mountain valleys are likely in for freezing rain through Friday evening.
Precip clears out Friday night leaving clearing for Saturday. A lovely weekend is ahead with a warming trend leading up to a likely rain event early week.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Cold air has been moving in on steady NE winds through the night and temps are now below freezing for all except southern York County. Radar is indicating light/showery precip moving across southern sections and light but steadier precip moving across northern areas. This pattern will continue today with southern areas (south of route two) seeing occasional flurries/sleet sprinkles and areas north of route two seeing light snow eventually changing to sleet this afternoon/evening. As I mentioned in my post last night, accumulations will be very light from this outside the mountains and a coating may even be generous for some areas near the coast. Highs today won’t move much as CAD becomes firmly established. Look for low to mid 30’s south and upper 20’s to low 30’s north. Winds will be noticeable out of the NE and will thus make things feel cooler than they are.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Early spring is in full swing in Maine and this week will be a good reminder that Spring is a battle between warm and cold. In the beginning, cold wins. Slowly but steadily, the warm air wins out but it will take many messy battles before that happens. For now, the advantage is with the cold. We’ll see that in full swing in the next few days as a powerful Colorado low which is currently bringing every type of weather under the sun from Colorado/Nebraska blizzards to Texas tornadoes. The storm will be significantly weaker by the time it gets to us but will still be potent enough to cause some issues tomorrow into Friday.
The Setup: This Evening
A cold front is moving through the area currently (blue line on map) and winds behind it are out of the north which is bringing in cold air. Canadian high pressure is diving SE across Eastern Canada and will continue to supply this cold air through most of the event. Low pressure is moving across the Western plains and will be moving NE towards our area tonight into tomorrow. A warm front extends out ahead of this storm and is linked to the cold front bringing us the cold air this evening. This warm front will try to push north tomorrow and Friday but cold, dry air in place will impede its progress significantly.
Round One: Snow Tonight Into Tomorrow Morning
Precip starts late tonight and tomorrow morning in the form of snowfall. Initially, everyone is snow and very light accumulations are likely for everyone by the morning commute. Snow will be light though and major issues are not expected. That tapers off tomorrow morning leaving mid-day tomorrow mainly dry but cool. The main system can be seen at the very end of the loop spreading into western PA/NY.
Round Two: Main Storm: Surface Edition Friday
The warm front mentioned in the setup section will attempt to move north overnight tomorrow into Friday. It will hit a brick wall at around route 1 which will let temps rise above freezing at the immediate coastline but will keep inland areas below freezing. This pattern should continue through mid afternoon Friday before the low passes overhead and the trailing cold front busts up the inversions holding the low level cold in place. This is the surface pattern that is known far and wide for not changing. Guidance says most of the region goes over to rain by 9 AM. I think it will be 3 or 4 in the afternoon before temps rise above freezing in inland/mountain areas.
Round Two: Main Storm: Upper Air Edition Friday
Aloft, a much different story will play out. There is no Canadian high above 3-4 thousand feet. Therefore, there is no source of cold air. Warm air blasting north will have no trouble pushing the cold air in place out of the way. This will result in a classic mixed precip setup where snow forms in the cold layer really high up before melting in the warm mid levels of the atmosphere. It then refreezes close to the surface resulting in sleet and freezing rain depending on the depth of the cold at the surface. With the cold Canadian high just to our north, there will be a continuous feed of cold dry air being funneled down the east side of the mountains. This is a classic Cold Air Damming setup and CAD always lasts longer than you think even if you think it will last longer than you think. That tongue twister boils down to the fact that cold air moves when it’s good and ready too and it’s not usually to motivated to go anywhere.
Round Two: Main Storm: Impact Map Friday
Following the initial snow tomorrow morning, this is what I expect for impacts. Everyone starts out with a little mix but strong SE winds should quickly warm the coast up above freezing resulting in mainly rain there. Despite that, do be prepared for slick conditions everywhere as sleet and freezing rain are a dangerous combo especially with some leftover snow around. Inland, even a few miles, cold air will put up a much mightier fight. Look for snow changing to sleet changing to freezing rain. Sleet and freezing rain look to be the dominant precip types through this event. Snow will quickly change over to a mix as warm air blasts in unimpeded aloft but for most areas away from the coast, the surface high will be enough to keep temps below freezing at the surface for a good long time. In terms of accumulation, in the green area, a trace to a tenth of an inch of ice is expected. In the pink area, a tenth to a quarter inch of ice is expected.
Rounds One And Two Combined Snowfall: Tonight Through Friday
Here is what I expect for snowfall before we change to a mix or rain depending on location. While I have the Penobscot Bay and York County regions missing out on any accumulations, I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see coatings there tomorrow morning. This all basically is gone Friday afternoon as sleet and freezing rain turn the ground into an icy crust. The March sun angle is still a factor here despite cloudy conditions and sleet/freezing rain could have a hard time accumulating on pavement. However, please use caution especially Friday as any untreated roads will likely be slick. This snowfall map includes precip tonight and into tomorrow morning.
Round Three: Possible Storm: Early Next Week
Following this storm, we have a nice early Spring weekend to look forward too with cool temps and sunny skies. However, tranquil patterns rarely last long in March in Maine and by early next week, another storm threatens. As you can see here, guidance is converging on the idea we see some sort of precip. How much/what type is still yet to be determined. Snow, mixed precip, and rain are all on the table as well as no storm at all though that is becoming less likely. While it is too early to offer details, I just wanted to put that out there as something to watch in the coming days.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
A cold front is sinking south across the region currently as high pressure builds in from the north. Look for mainly cloudy skies with the chance for a shower or two as this front moves south. Temps will rise into the low to mid 30’s north and the upper 30’s to low 40’s south.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Like a bad reality TV show, winter’s last stand looks to have several unwanted episodes as we head into early April. Having already seen our first event out of this newly active pattern, our attention now turns to the next two threats for winter weather which are on the horizon in the coming week.
Our first shot at winter weather arrives tonight in the form of a weak burst of warm air aloft which will set off some light snow in the mountains. This activity will also be associated with the push south of cold air at the surface in the form of a backdoor cold front. The combo of surface cold front and mid level warm front will lead to light snow in the overnight hours across the north country. Mainly snow is expected with light accumulations.
This light snow will provide the first ingredient for late week trouble: cold air. A sprawling Canadian high pressure system will build south behind this backdoor cold front delivering more cold air. This won’t be Arctic air but it will be cold enough to make precip that falls when low pressure approaches from the west fall in the form of snow/sleet/freezing rain for many as opposed to rain. Guidance is still struggling to figure out how long the cold will last but seeing as this is looking like a nearly classic Cold Air Damming (CAD) situation, I think it best to go with the old rule of thumb: CAD will always last longer than you think, even if you think it will last longer than you think. The long and the short of it is, cold air in Maine leaves when it’s good and ready, not when warm air tells it to and it’s about as motivated as a teenage boy.
Here’s the setup late Thursday evening as low pressure approaches from the west. Cold, dry air will be in place shown by isobars bending over our area and shades of Grey appearing in the Precipitable Water (PWAT) fields. The scale on the right shows how grey colors represent low PWATs and thus dry air. The image also shows sea level pressure which shows high pressure anchored to our NE feeding cold air south. The wavy nature of the warm front also signals the lack of a concentrated push north of warm air as well as the potential for redevelopment of low pressure offshore. The secondary coastal storm is something that guidance is hinting at and with the strong high pressure trying to ‘split’ the storm in two, this seems like a reasonable possibility. This is unlikely to lead to a strong coastal storm and precip is likely to remain light to moderate through the duration but it would help to keep that cold air locked in across the area.
In terms of impacts, this one will be a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain for most of the area with the far north possibly holding on to mostly snow and the coast seeing a change to rain at some point. Everyone will see slick travel Friday during the morning commute and roads are likely to remain slick for the evening commute away from the coast. While it is still a little early to call exact amounts, I expect a widespread 1-3″ of snow with coatings along the coast and 4 or 5″ possible in northern Franklin and Somerset counties. In terms of ice accretion, light to moderate amounts are likely and in some areas, especially inland, it could be enough to threaten power lines. This does not however look to be a major ice event. With the storm weakening and possibly splitting, there does not look to be enough precip to cause major issues.
I’ll have more info in the coming days on the Friday event.
Another round of wintry weather is possible early next week. While it is still a week away, there are reasonably strong signals we see some sort of precip. As always this far out, any and all solutions are on the table from snowstorm to rain storm to sunny day. More on that as we get closer.
-Jack
Hello everyone!
A rather nice Spring day is on the way this morning as temps currently below freezing rise into the low to mid 30’s north and mid to upper 40’s south. West/North West winds will be busy today with gusts over 20 mph possible. This will lead to the classic upslope/downslope pattern where the mountains see clouds and flurries while the coast enjoys warm, sunny conditions. Skies will be mainly sunny but clouds will be on the increase this evening ahead of our next storm.
More details on that this evening
-Jack
Hello everyone!
Our storm from this morning is now racing NE and most of the area is seeing sunny skies . Coastal areas saw 4-8″ while inland areas saw 2-4″. The forecast worked out great for the Midcoast but busted fairly badly west of Brunswick. The culprit was a westward shift in mid level (5,00-10,000 feet up) storm systems. I’ll try to get a full post out at some point explaining that.
In the meantime, we have more winter to look forward to! Following nice weather tomorrow, a weak clipper will drive a backdoor cold front through the region Wednesday. Behind it, cold Canadian high pressure will settle in for Thursday which sets up episode 2 of winter’s last stand. A low pressure system will move along or a little north of this front drawing warm air north as it goes. We’ve seen this a million times before, when warm air crashes into cold air, trouble ensues and this time is no different. Precip likely breaks out Thursday afternoon/evening and lasts through Friday midday.
Cold high pressure to the north will play a big part in this forecast. One of the things you learn in forecasting, especially forecasting in Maine, is never to bet against Canadian high pressure. Cold air at the surface always lasts longer than you think, even if you think it will last longer than you think. Guidance is still split on exactly how this storm pans out. It is still 3-4 days away as well which means that there is more than enough time for the forecast to change. However, looking at the overall pattern, the solution the 12Z GEM (shown in maps given here) portrays is one I could absolutely see happening.
While the details of how much precip/precip type/exact timing/etc are still to be worked out, it looks like we’re in for another shot of wintry weather to close out the week. The greatest threat for this one is in the mountains and ski areas could very well see some snow out of this one in addition to any mixed precip warm air aloft could cause.
More on this in the coming days as the details come into focus.
-Jack
Forecasterjack 