Hello everyone!

Today is an unusual weather day here in western Maine and New Hampshire as we deal with the passage of Tropical Storm Elsa. As of 9 AM, Elsa is still located south of Long Island but is moving northeast quickly. Rain is already breaking out over the area with the steadiest and heaviest rain still a bit to our south.

Most of Elsa’s rain will fall in a period of torrential downpours between 11 AM and 4 PM as the core of the storm moves into the Gulf of Maine. During this time, 3-5″ of rain is likely to pile up along the coastal plain and foothills with some towns making a run at 6″+. This volume of rain in this short a time is very unusual for New England and poses a serious flash flood risk.

Flooding of small creeks and streams along with low-lying areas is expected, and some places that don’t usually see high water during heavy rain events are likely to experience some inundation today. If your basement is a frequent flooder (or even an intermittent flooder) or if you live near a small creek prone to overflow, now is the time to wrap up your preparations for high water. Fairly serious damage to roads near stream crossings is possible so try to limit travel this afternoon if at all possible. Remember to never drive through floodwaters, especially in flash flooding situations like this, as there is no way of knowing whether the underlying road remains intact or not.

Elsa and its associated downpours will exit rapidly to the northeast this evening with some partial clearing possible in western areas by sunset. Aside from the rain, Elsa’s passage will substantially increase the humidity with dew points making a run into the upper 60s/low 70s. Some gusty northeast winds are possible but with the storm’s center tracking to our east through the Gulf of Maine, the strongest winds will remain over water and no widespread wind issues are expected.

High temps today will sit within a few degrees of 70 thanks to northeast winds and thick cloud cover.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

A rare run-in with a tropical storm is in the forecast for tomorrow as Elsa moves rapidly up the East Coast. Having been deprived of its fuel source (warm water) over 24 hours ago, Elsa is not going to deal the region a devastating blow like a real hurricane would. However, it’s moving fast enough to not completely fall apart by the time it gets up here so we will deal with some substantial impacts.

Elsa’s biggest impact by far will be in the form of heavy rain beginning today. Moisture will be siphoned off the system by an approaching cold front today so while Elsa’s primary rain shield remains well to our south, it’ll still be a wet day across much of the area. This is especially true in the north and mountains where proximity to the front will favor steadier rains this afternoon. Farther south, rain will come in the form of pop-up showers and thunderstorms so will be a bit more hit-or-miss, though a few towns could pick up an inch of rain in short order given the moisture-laden airmass.

Thick clouds and showers will hold temps in the low to mid 70s for most today with plenty of humidity for those who for some reason wish it were warmer.

Elsa blows through the region tomorrow with torrential rain possible along the coastal plain and foothills. Most guidance indicates 3-5″ of rain is a good bet for much of the I-95 corridor extending west to the southeast-facing slopes of the mountains. Much of that rain will fall during a rather brief window between 9 AM and 3 PM which means that flash flooding is likely. If your basement takes on water easily or if you live in a low-lying area prone to flooding, now is the time to take appropriate precautions for high water. Move sensitive stuff to higher ground, dust off the sump pump and make sure it’s in good working order, etc.

Most of the area won’t have to worry much about Elsa’s wind, though some exposed spots on the Midcoast could make a run towards 40-50 mph gusts.

Elsa will be a distant memory by sunset tomorrow as the system races northeast into Canada.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

After a few showers and storms grazed southern parts of the area yesterday, we’re in for a similar setup today as a slow-moving cold front slides in our direction from the northwest. This front will introduce some clouds especially in the mountains especially later in the day which will hold high temps in the mid 70s north of Route 2. South of the front, partly to mostly sunny skies this morning and a generally warmer airmass will favor much warmer temps with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Showers and storms will pop up this afternoon especially in southern parts of the area with gusty winds being the primary threat alongside heavy rain and lightning.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Unfortunately, warm and humid weather is back for today after a beautiful Fourth of July weekend in the 60s. As the warm air moves in this morning, we’re seeing thick low clouds/fog over the Midcoast and some showers scattered across the region. Expect a few breaks in the clouds by midday as the warm front lifts north, allowing for high temps to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the area. With thick fog and onshore flow, the Midcoast will stay cooler in the 60s to perhaps low 70s.

A cold front will push through the region this afternoon bringing the threat for some showers and thunderstorms especially in southern NH. At the moment, widespread severe weather is not expected but some storms may be able to produce some gusty winds in addition to heavy rain and lightning.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature continued cool and unsettled weather as an upper-level low traverses the area. Expect mostly cloudy skies throughout the day with scattered drizzle and showers this morning becoming more widespread this afternoon/evening especially in southern areas. A steady northeasterly breeze will team up with the thick cloud cover to hold high temps to the upper 50s for most with a few low 60s possible in Maine where showers won’t move in for another few hours.

A similar theme will continue for the Fourth as we continue to celebrate our independence from the tyranny of heat and humidity. Winds tomorrow will shift around to the northwest which will open the door for some warming along the coast, into the mid/upper 60s, while the mountains remain a bit chillier. Clouds will start to break up tomorrow especially along the coast while another round of showers is possible in western NH and adjacent parts of the Maine mountains.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature cool temps and unsettled weather as a couple areas of low pressure slide offshore to our south. Expect overcast skies to be the rule today with just a couple sunny breaks possible in the north this afternoon. Rain is steadiest this morning with more showery weather taking over this afternoon, especially in the south. Thick cloud cover and northeasterly breezes will hold temps to within a few degrees of 60 area-wide.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature cooler temps and a bit more in the way of cloud cover as yesterday’s front lingers offshore and we await the development of a new wave of low pressure along it this afternoon. Skies this morning are characterized by a mix of sun and clouds with a bit more of the latter than the former. That should be the general rule today with breaks of sun briefly poking through the overcast. Folks in the north and mountains stand the best chance of those sunny breaks being a bit longer especially midday.

This afternoon, a coastal storm begins to get going to our southwest and will shut down any remaining sunny breaks. Scattered showers may break out in southern areas this afternoon, but steady rain should hold off until after sunset. Temps will fall from highs in the mid 70s north/low 80s south into the 60s as the storm draws colder air in from the northeast.

A very beneficial and much-needed soaking rain is expected tonight with several inches possible along the coast to take the edge off our (re)developing drought.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature another day of hot and humid weather and afternoon thunderstorms, though today’s fireworks show looks a bit more widespread and intense as a cold front approaches from the north. Skies are partly to mostly sunny this morning and remnant cloud cover especially over the north should gradually subside over the next few hours. The strong sunshine and southwesterly breezes will push temps into the mid 80s up north and low to mid 90s down south, with marine influences once again limited to the islands of Penobscot Bay and the southern tips of Midcoast peninsulas.

By around noon, storms will begin to fire up in the mountains as the front approaches. Storms will then move towards the coast during the afternoon hours and could pack quite the punch given how much energy our hot and humid airmass will provide. All cells will produce dangerous lightning and heavy rain while many will also pack strong winds capable of producing power outages. A few folks might see some hail today, but the middle part of the atmosphere isn’t quite set up right for widespread big hail concerns. The lower part of the atmosphere is teetering on the edge of being favorable for tornadoes, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a warning or two issued for someone in the Sebago Lake region. Make sure you have a way of receiving warning information in the event one is issued for your location.

Storms will sweep offshore this evening with another broken line of showers along a secondary boundary potentially moving into the mountains around sunset.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Unfortunately, we will once again find ourselves on the wrong side of a cold front today with west-southwest winds bringing hot and humid air into the region. Look for highs similar to yesterday’s or perhaps even a bit hotter, ranging from the mid/upper 80s way in the north to the mid 90s for much of the coastal plain. Some parts of southern NH may even make a run at the century mark. Stifling dew points near 70 will make the unpleasant temperatures feel even more brutal. Make sure to take proper precautions if you’re especially sensitive to the heat or have to be outside during the hottest part of the day.

Skies will be mostly sunny this morning before clouds start to pop up again this afternoon. With so much energy in place for thunderstorms, all we need is a spark to get some action going. It’s a bit less obvious where that spark will come from today, but I’d expect to see at least one or two storms develop in the mountains midafternoon. Any storms that can get going will pose a threat for heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

To be honest, it is pretty hard to put a positive spin on today’s forecast as a strong Bermuda high sends miserably hot and humid air in our direction. Under partly to mostly sunny skies this morning, temps will warm rapidly into the 80s north and 90s south. Westerly winds ahead of a cold front positioned to our north will keep the sea breeze at bay so you’ll have to hop on a boat to get any relief from the ocean. Temps along the coastal plain will rise into the mid 90s with dew points nearing 70 which means it’ll feel like 100-105. That’s about as horrid as it gets in this part of the country, so make sure to drink plenty of water and retreat either inside to A/C or to the nearest body of cold water during the hottest afternoon hours.

With all that heat and humidity, there will be plenty of fuel for thunderstorms today, though it’s less clear how many sparks will be available to ignite activity. The mountains and the approaching front should set off at least a few thunderstorms this afternoon north of Route 2. These storms will then attempt to move southeast towards the coast and are likely to have the most success north of a Fryeburg-Portland line. Any storms that are able to develop will have the potential to produce some pretty nasty winds given the way the lower atmosphere is set up today. Lightning and heavy rain will also pose a threat to those outside as a storm approaches.

Storms will settle down this evening and we’ll settle in for another disgustingly hot and humid night.

Winter will come, eventually.

-Jack