Tag Archives: New Jersey

Full update on winter storms

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We are now on a wild roller coaster ride when it comes to the weather in the North East. A low pressure system is moving out of the Great Lakes and will be transferring its energy to a secondary low off the NJ coast.

noreaster 12

 

Graphic overview of storms.

As you can see, there are many factors playing into the forecast. The coastal front, the new low, cold air damming. Cold air damming is when  the heavy cold air stops the advance of Warm air. Where exactly the cold air dam sets up will play a big part in the type of precipitation. The coastal front will play an equally important part on determining precipitation types. As shown, the east winds off the warm water will bring in warmer air. This will turn snow/sleet/freezing rain into all rain. Expect this to move inland Monday-tuesday.

After the coastal front moves inland, Wednesday will already be here as will another storm. This new storm will be MUCH stronger.

noreaster 13

 

This graphic depicts the setup Monday-Wednesday. The coastal front from tonight will move way inland turning everyone except the ski resorts over to plain rain. The wednesday low will move swiftly through the Gulf of Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes. On the backside of this system the cold air will make a comeback turning everyone back over to snow Wednesday evening-night. Accumulations should be light.

After we get the Monday and Wednesday storms out of the way, there will be yet another low Friday. This is a little too far out to accurately forecast so I will detail that in a later Post coming Wednesday-Thursday.

-Jack

Advisory #2 on new Nor’easter

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The next storm the east coast will be facing will be a very bad storm for Sandy ravaged areas. This storm will likely bottom out at 990mb slightly weaker then estimates from this morning and a day ago. These estimates suggested pressures of near 980mb. Regardless of pressures, this will be a very bad storm for all ravaged by Sandy. Winds of 35-50mph will ravage areas hit hard by Sandy. Models are trending east with this storm which means that there will be cool air in place in Maine allowing for some snow possibly accumulating to a few inches in mountainous areas. areas closer to the coast may see up to 1″. Accumulations will be tricky to forecast here due to the fact that the ground is warm and it will be a while for the ground to cool off enough to allow for snow to accumulate. 1-2″ of rain will be common from northern NJ to Cape Cod and possibly Seacoast NH.

-Jack

Advisory 1 on new Nor’easter

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Less than a week after signing off from historic Sandy, I am back on with a new storm and new situation. This WILL NOT be another Sandy! I can not stress this enough. This storm will likely bottom out at 985mb. This is a measure of barometric pressure. Sandy was 945mb. Sandy was a hurricane while this will be a typical nor’easter.

This storm will be affecting Florida on election day likely causing some voters to stay home but that is another issue. The storm will come up the coast Wednesday affecting the mid-Atlantic areas. The storm will bring winds of 40-50mph winds and a surge of 2-5′ rainfall totals of 2″ will be common. This will not be a major storm though its impacts will be more damaging due to the fact that Sandy weakened our defenses both physical (seawalls, dunes) and socially (our red cross and other agencies like FEMA are already very busy with Sandy damage and power crews still face more than 1 million outages). This will just add insult to injury after a historic Sandy. Thursday the storm will stall off of the Jersey coast and slowly weaken as it moves to the NE thursday night.

Snowfall is the tricky part to the forecast. There will be accumulating snow in the Catskills and the Whites with amounts possibly reaching a foot in the favored upslope regions. NJ, DE, and Eastern PA will see wet flakes though amours will be minor and uncirten

-Jack

Watching the models closely…

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This is a special post to tell everyone that many of the models seem to like the idea of a powerful nor’easter heading up the coast next week.

Stay Tuned for updates!

-Jack

NYC Feels all that Sandy has to offer

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Superstorm Sandy, downgraded last night, moved ashore Monday evening. Winds gusted over 60mph here in Yarmouth and up to 76mph in the Bath area.

The NYC area felt major impacts from surge as water covered the LGA airport and winds gusted well over hurricane force at JFK. Meanwhile, the defenses put in place at the last minute by the MTA were no match for Sandy’s surge and service will be suspended for the remainder of the week as all major lines are flooded according to the MTA. Also there is a stunning video of the Brooklyn Battery tunnel with water pouring in. Cars were bobbing around like rubber duckies in lower Manhattan. FDR drive was underwater at LOW tide so forget about high tide.

The Atlantic City area felt major impacts as well as Sandy roared ashore in Southern NJ. Large chunks of the boardwalk were washed away by Sandy’s monster surge.

Even up un Maine, Extensive flooding cut off Wells to Wells beach for a few hours near mid-night last night. Also, latest estimates have 83,200 customers without power in ME according to CMP (Central Maine Power)

-Jack

Afternoon update: storm moving ashore now in NJ, Battery park; other low-lying areas brace for historic flooding

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Now this is crunch time. The center of circulation is bearing down on the NJ coast and the winds are picking up here in Maine.

Rain is now moving into the Detroit area now and is continuing steadily in most of the mid-atlantic states.

Forecasts are now holding steady and true (see posts below) and so I will not elaborate too much here.

New update from NHC:
NW movement at 28mph
pressure 940mb
winds 90mph

Hunker down and stay safe!

-JAck

New Models Show Less Impacts in Maine While Mid-Atlantic Sates Get Hit Hard

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New models out this morning show Sandy/Frankenstorm making landfall in Centeral NJ Monday evening. This would deliver quite a surge to theNYC area. Surge heights would be on the order of 6-10′. Irene, for example, delivered a 4-5′ surge and missed flooding the subways by mere inches. With 5 extra feet of water and waves already on the order of 8′ in New York Harbor, subway flooding is a real possibility.

Station 44065 NDBC
Location: 40.369N 73.703W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 10:50:00 UTC

Winds: NNE (30°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 12 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (153°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.82 in and falling
Air Temperature: 58.3 F
Dew Point: 53.1 F
Water Temperature: 61.9 F
Bouy data from the entrance of New York Harbor.

For those of us who this means nothing to, there are only a few things that are important, 1) Significant Wave Height. This is simple and self-explanitory. How high the waves are above the average water level (excluding tides. Ex: 12 foot waves with a 2 foot surge would be reported as a Sig. Wave Height of 12 not 14). 2) Dominant Wave Period. This shows how powerful the blast of energy creating the wave is. The higher the number in seconds, the more powerful the wave (Ex: a wind blown chop has a 2 second period while a tsunami wave has a 5-8 minute period). 3) The obvious wind and pressure to show the weather in general.

Station 41002 NDBC
Location: 31.862N 74.835W
Date:Sun, 28 Oct 2012 10:50:00 UTC

Winds: NNW (330°) at 36.9 kt gusting to 46.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 20.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (36°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 28.73 in and rising rapidly
Air Temperature: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 77.7 F

Bouy data from 225 Miles SE of Cape Hatteras.

As you can see by the green Barometric pressure line, the storm center has already pass by though impacts are still severe.

Impacts will be lessened here in Maine due to the storm’s eastern band falling apart. This means that there is not heavy storm on the right hand side of the system. Dont let your gaurd down though…  The storm could easily at any moment decide to build a formidible eastern side or just as easily decide not to. Stay tuned!

Morning Satellite shot of Frankenstorm. As you can see the eastern half is fairly bleak sparing much of Northern New England

Winds will be in the 30-60ph range peaking Monday. This is for Maine and New Hampshire. 40-65mph for Massachussets. 50-70mph for Rhode Island. 60-80mph for New Jersey where the center of the storm moves in. 70 mph for NYC and Long Island. 50-70mph for much of MD with 45-60mph in far western regions. 35-55mph for Eastern VA with 25-45mph for Western regoins.

Tides will be running 2-4′ above normal due to surge in Maine and 1-3′ above normal due to the full moon. This will cause low-lying areas in Portland to flood. These areas will be along low-lying commercial street and areas adjecent to Back Bay as well as anywhere else that is less than 5-6′ above sea level.

Sandy is currently a Category 1 storm with top winds of 75mph. Below is the full NHC advisory.

…SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST…INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR… …WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL…
8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 32.1°N 73.1°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

This is the data and here is the full write-up. For more info including graphics, go to the nhc home page which can be found at the right of my page.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 281159
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

…SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST…INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR…
…WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.1N 73.1W
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM E OF NEW YORK CITY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…951 MB…28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  OTHER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES…
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND APPROACH THE
COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS…AND SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
520 MILES…835 KM. A SHIP LOCTAED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE. ALSO…NOAA BUOY 41036…LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST…RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 47 MPH…76 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH…94 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB…28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA…AND THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY…AND
REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
AT OR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND…BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE…

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY…1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SNDS…4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY…2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY…1 TO 2 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR…6 TO
11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER…4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY…3 TO 5 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY…ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION…
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE…THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

 

Finish preparations for an extended period of time without electricity.

-Jack

New day, New Forecasts

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Today, we are looking at only slight adjustments to the forecast. I now think it will make a direct landfall on NYC. There are a couple reasons that I differ from the NHC track taking it into Southern NJ.

 

NHC track with landfall in southern NJ.

1) Most of the models have my back. All but the GFDL, and the operational Euro make landfall in NYC.

The CMC, just one of the many many models taking Frankenstorm into NYC.

2) Upper air steering. The steering setup would favor a NYC track due to the position and intensity of the trough. The position of the trough and the ridge from the Canadian Maratimes suggests a landfall from North NJ to Mid-Long Island.

This mornings satellite image showing an active Atlantic basin.

Sandy is clearly seen as the storm off the SE coast. There is a normal extratropical mid latatude low SE of Newfoundland. The area in question is that blob in between the two systems. Will nthis blob continue up the coast with Sandy? Or will it join the extratropical low? This is the big question in my mind because if that band makes it up the coast New England could see major impacts. If not, then it would be up to Sandy and her megastorm to create an east side to her. She has planty of time to do that as she moves up the coast first intensifying as a warm-core system over the Gulf Stream then becoming cold-core over the waters south of NYC and feeding of the trough energy. Either way there would be major impacts.

I think 3-5″ of rain would be likely in New England with amouts possibly reaching 12-15″ over parts of NJ and Southern NY.

Winds will likely peak around 60mph along coastal sections of ME with higher gusts possibly reaching hurricane force. This along with our tropical downpours will be cause for insane power outages. Prepare for anywhere from 2-14 days depending on your priority level (hospitals, cities are high priority, island communities, communities high in the mountains and low priority. Anywhere in between like suburbs or the mid sized town would be mid priority). Winds in NYC will likely be hurricane force with NJ also seeing hurricane force winds. DE, PA, New England, MD, and VA, NC will see tropical storm force winds.

Also, changes this morning, timing. Effects will begin Monday and linger possibly into the end of the workweek. This is because of the effects that I think the mountainous regions of NY will have on slowing the Frankenstorm down. Earlier, it was thought to move over less mountainous terrain and be moved along very quickly by the trough.

-Jack

 

 

Windy tomorrow with snow returning on Thursday night

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Overveiw: As we continue to endure some truly terrible ( or awesome for those of you that hate snow) january rain this evening and most of us are wondering where all the snow is. Well it is coming on Thursday night and then possibly saturday as well. But at a price, wind. Winds will blow hard and strong tomorrow out of the W or NW.

Specifics:
Rain will wrap up this evening as low pressure from the great lakes moves northeast out of Lake Huron and up the St. Laurence valley tonight and tomorrow. This low will drag a cold front across the region  starting in the Mid Atlantic with thunderstorms there and then across the NE with some rain showers quickly changing over to snow with the passage of the front. Winds behind the front will blow strong on Wednesday ushering in cold air. This cold air will set the stage for snow on Thursday night with around 3-4″ expected by Friday morning. A clipper system moves in Saturday with snow and possibly a mix along the coast.

Mid Atlantic will be generally the same but but rain in for Thursday night as a low pressure system undergoes cyclogenisis off of Cape Cod late on Thursday. Saturdays system will be too far north to cause more than some patchy clouds and the chance for a shower for the northern sections ( northern NJ and NYC)

Stay tuned !

-Jack

Todays forecast

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New England:
Cold! Highs around 20 this morning with a gusty NW wing ushering really cold air and keeping wind chills below zero for most of the day today and tomorrow morning. Partly cloudy skies.

Mid Atlantic:
Cold! Highs in the upper 30s in VA, lower 30s for southern New Jersey, Delaware, and Eastern Maryland. Northern New Jersey and NYC can expect highs in the upper 20s to around 30. Partly cloudy skies can be expected.

Stay tuned!

-Jack