Our storm is moving out this morning and most of the accumulations are done with the exception of NE areas where heavy snow bands will continue for another few hours. For the rest of us, some dry air at around 10,000 feet is causing precip to shut off and thus most of southern Maine is now dry.
That’s not to say precip is completely done, the upper low is only just beginning the process of moving through the area and everyone will likely see another round of snow this afternoon as it finishes its crossing.
HRRR Model Simulated Radar Animation. Credit: Weatherbell
Here is the HRRR model showing one more round of snow this afternoon before the storm moves out for good. Expect these snow showers/squalls to be heaviest between 1 and 6 PM this evening before moving out around 8 or 9 PM tonight.
Temps will be falling today starting in the 30’s this morning and crashing through the 20’s this evening. The mountains will likely see readings in the 10’s while the coast likely stays in the 20’s.
Precip is already falling across much of the area as our next storm moves in. Expect snow to flip quickly to freezing rain/rain along the coast but remain all snow inland this evening. Currently, some weak divergence aloft is causing a heavy snow band to move through Cumberland County on its way NE.
925mb Analysis Showing Divergence Aloft Over Southern Maine/New Hampshire
This divergence is causing a brief heavy snow burst which, despite warm temps, is accumulating on some of the roads so use caution if you happen to be driving this afternoon.
3:30 PM Radar Showing A Heavy Burst Of Snow Moving NE Across Coastal Areas
Warmer air will continue to flood into coastal regions this afternoon though after looking at data from a special sounding (vertical profile of the atmosphere) from the NWS in Gray, models appear to have had a warm bias with this event and thus a tad more frozen precip is expected especially away from the immediate coast.
HRRR Model Simulated Rader Animation. Credit: Weatherbell
Here is the HRRR model’s take on what the first phase of our storm will look like through the wee hours of tomorrow morning. This model does a good job showing the rain/snow line advancing this evening with heavy snow across the interior and rain across coastal areas. I would advise taking this model with a grain of salt however as it shoots the rain line past Lewiston. When accounting for the warm bias of the models for this event, the rain line should approach the Lewiston area but is not likely to pass it especially considering the snowpack we still have on the ground.
12Z GFS Upper Level Energy Map. Credit: Weatherbell
The second phase of the storm occurs tomorrow when a strong upper low crosses the area. Expect temps to crash tonight as NW winds behind a developing secondary low move cold air into the region. As a result, tomorrow’s part of the storm will be an mostly snow event which is where the coast picks up their accumulation. There is still some debate as to if/when/where an inverted trough might setup to help focus the precip so uncertainty still remains. Precip looks to move out tomorrow evening from west to east.
Here is the latest snowfall forecast showing the coast escaping with little more than a dusting while the mountains see the jackpot with 8-12″. Due to warmer temps, this will be a wet and heavy snow so watch for a few isolated power outages as trees sag under the weight of the snow.
Another storm is on the way this weekend and while much of the Northeast US sees rain and 40’s for this storm, we lucky Northern New Englanders will likely be seeing more snow. While this will not be a big storm by any means, especially compared to others this winter, it will put a temporary pause on the arrival of Spring.
Water Vapor Image From This Afternoon Showing The Two Features That Will Bring Snow To The Area This Weekend. Credit: SSEC
Looking at the setup for our weekend system, two main features present themselves: a plume of moisture and warm air heading north from the Gulf Of Mexico and an Arctic disturbance racing SE to meet the moisture. How much cold makes it south and how far it gets will be crucial to determining how much snow falls.
12Z GFS Valid At 1 PM Tomorrow Showing Warm Air Streaming In At 2500 Feet. Credit: Accuweather
Before precip even starts, SW winds aloft will be allowing warm air to stream into southern parts of the region resulting in very little snow on the front side of the storm. Winds aloft are far weaker inland and thus above freezing air should be mainly a coastal issue with the foothills briefly getting in on the action tomorrow afternoon.
12Z NAM Showing Warm Air Working In Aloft But Staying Firm At The Surface. Vertical Temp Profile For Augusta, Valid At Midnight Tomorrow. The Red Line Indicates The Temperature.
Warm air will also be working in at the surface but with 1-3′ of snowpack still on the ground, warming aloft may outpace the warming at the surface tomorrow morning so a brief period of sleet/freezing rain is possible along the coast and just inland as well. While this doesn’t look like a major concern, watch out for some extra slick spots tomorrow morning.
12Z GFS Showing A Lack Of Intense Upward Motion Resulting In A Lack Of Heavy Precip. Image Credit: Accuweather
Another key difference between this storm and others this season will be that precip this time around will be a lot more on the steady side rather than extremely heavy. The GFS vertical velocity map above shows this well. Notice the lack of pinks/reds and the introduction of more gentle oranges. This translates to light to moderate precip rather than heavy precip.
Expected Precipitation Type For This Storm
By tomorrow afternoon, the warm air will have made its farthest push inland with temps both above freezing both aloft and at the surface all the way into the foothills. During the heaviest rain, flooding could be an issue along the coast where rain and snowmelt could combine to cause some minor street flooding Saturday afternoon/evening. Any impacts from flooding should be minor but it is something to watch for especially along the coast.
12Z GFS Showing A Strong Upper Low That Will Help To Extend Snow Well Into Sunday. Credit: Accuweather
The final phase of the storm will come Sunday as an upper low dives SE across the area. This will help to continue snow across the area on Sunday which is when coastal areas see most of their accumulations. Flakes will be flying as far south as SE MA but no accumulation is expected south of Boston.
12Z Canadian Model Showing Snow Lingering Into Sunday Afternoon. Map Valid 1 PM Sunday. Credit: Weatherbell
Snow on Sunday will be lighter and more showery in nature but it will help to keep roads slick and flakes falling for most of another day.
Taking a look at accumulations, the highest totals will be in the mountains where the cold air will hang tough the whole way through. Amounts drop off towards the coast with Southern New England seeing no accumulation at all.
Today will feature clouds on the increase as high pressure slides offshore and low pressure begins to approach from the west. Expect at least some sun to start this morning, especially over eastern areas, but everyone clouds up from west to east this afternoon. Precip will not be an issue until tomorrow with the exception of the mountains where a passing flurry or snow shower is possible. Accumulations will be a dusting at most. There is the chance that a few stray flakes make it to the foothills as well but no accumulations are expected. Highs today will range from low 20’s in the north to low/mid 30’s in the south and along the coast.
Another storm is headed our way this weekend, I’ll have another post detailing its timing and impacts this evening.
More quiet weather is on tap today as high pressure remains in control. Temps will rise into the 20’s for most with a few low 30’s along the coast. Today will start sunny but expect a few more clouds by afternoon as a weak storm moves in. A few flurries are possible in association with the storm in the mountains but otherwise, clouds will be the only effect from this one.
No other storms are in sight.
*Programming note: You may have noticed this update was out a little later than usual. The next two weeks are my spring vacation and I will still post every day, just a tad later as sleeping in felt really nice this morning. Late updates will continue through the 23rd when school starts again.
Today will feature increasing clouds in advance of our next storm system approaching from the west. Expect sun this morning with clouds rolling in during the lunchtime hours. Highs today will range from the low 20’s up north to near 30 in the south. Snow should wait until the late evening hours before moving into Maine though SW NH could see flakes as early as 3 or 4 this afternoon.
Here is my thinking as to snow accumulations for this event. Watch out for a little ice in southern areas as above freezing air moves in aloft but the deep snowpack keeps the cold locked in at the surface. Warm air does look to move in at the surface down in the Boston area before the precip shuts off so watch for a period of heavy rain tonight which could cause some localized street flooding given all the snow on the ground.
Light snow is moving out this morning as our storm pulls away and we will be left with plentiful clouds for most of the morning hours. Expect snow showers to continue in the mountains through the afternoon where several inches of upslope snow can be expected in the favored areas. Temps in the mountains will be in the upper 20’s. Along the coast, morning clouds will give way to afternoon sun as temps rise into the mid-upper 30’s. Happy spring!
More snow/mixed precipitation should arrive late in the day tomorrow.
Quick update this evening on our light snow event that is beginning across the region currently and will continue through early tomorrow morning. Light snow is beginning across southern and western areas right now and will continue to spread east this evening. Since the atmosphere is quite dry at the moment, expect some of the radar returns shown below to not be making it all the way to the ground.
Expect snow to continue through the night tonight before ending early tomorrow morning. Clearing skies can be expected tomorrow along with NW winds and cooler temps. Details on tomorrow’s forecast will come in tomorrow morning’s forecast update.
Just a few minor changes to the snow map this evening, highest snow totals look to be south and east with this one yet again. Another storm heads our way midweek with a warmup too.
Happy meteorological spring!!* Today will feature increasing clouds in the morning followed by clouds and increasing snow in the afternoon/evening hours. Expect all areas to see clouds by around 9 this morning while snow should wait until after 3 this afternoon.
Temps this morning are anywhere from the 10s below zero to single digits above zero warmest where light breezes still blow. Check out yesterday’s post for an explanation on why that is. Temps will rebound quite well today into the lower 20’s north and higher 20’s south.
NAM Model Showing Precip Moving Into The Area At 5 This Evening
Total snow accumulation thoughts have not changed much since last night and it still looks like the Boston area will pick up the most snow. Last night’s snow accumulation map still represents what I think will pan out in terms of total snowfall.
Another batch of precip arrives Wednesday, more details later.
-Jack
*Rules and restrictions apply, see Florida for details 🙂
Special update this evening to bring you up to date on yet another storm that will graze us with some light snow tomorrow night into Monday morning. This storm will, like many this winter, develop in such a way that eastern areas as well as southern areas will see the most snow.
12Z GFS Showing The Storm To The NE And The Moisture To The SE At 7 AM Monday Morning. Credit: Weatherbell
As we have seen many times this winter, the storm will be developing too late to bring significant snowfall to the region however, with snow just coming to an end across coastal areas Monday morning, the commute will likely be slick. Snow moves out during the midmorning hours Monday before clearing takes place Monday afternoon.
Here are my thoughts regarding snow accumulations. The Boston area looks to be the jackpot yet again while northern areas miss out.
Another snow event looks to arrive on Wednesday and may involve some mixed precipitation for southern areas. More details later.
Forecasterjack 