Friday will feature essentually a very stormy day. Rain at the immediate coast and snow in the mountains with mix in between.
Going in depth a little more… A low will intensify as it moves NE out of the Ohio valley and into New England Friday morning. Snow will overspread the region Thursday night and will stay snow across the entire forecast area untill ~8am. This is where the forecast becomes very tricky. The coast south of Portland will experiance the changeover first with rain overrunning that area and remaining locked in place as warm air pushes north. Meanwhile a secondary low undergoes cyclogenesis over Cape Cod. Depending on how strong this low gets, the warm air could stall or even retreat slightly.
There are 3 dominant senarios for the secondary low development: 1) 2nd low deepens more rapidly and pulls in significant cold air therefore resulting in more significant coastal snows. 2) 2nd low fizzles and gets absorbed by intensifying main low therefore pulling in little to no cold air resulting in minimal coastal snows and hevier upslope snow. 3) 2nd low deepens at a marginal rate resulting in a moderate amount of cold air being pulled in and causing the warm air to be bottled up resulting in a sharp coastal front with a steep temperature difference. The exact placement of this front will likely determine the rain snow line if senerio 3 plays out
Snow will be falling today in NE as a warm front pushes north. The warm front will bring warm air and this will cause a mix at the coast and some light rain tomorrow. After that the forecast really becomes extremely unclear. Models like the idea of a coastal storm developing Friday or Saturday with an extremely large trough digging down through the eastern third of the country. Models have been backing off on that solution however there is a possibility to see a storm develop Monday.
NE will see some snow in the next few days. Todays snow will be focused in ME and NH however tomorrow will bring snow to NEs entirety. This will bring 2-4″ in ME and NH. MA will be in the 1-3″ range with RI and CT only seeing a dusting to 1″. More possible storms in the long range but due to huge model uncertainty, it is far to early to go into details.
Warm air will continue to push northward today and will have everyone over to rain with the exception of the north and mountains where cold air and snow will hang on for the remainder of the day. Even in the mountains, a change to freezing rain is expected dropping around .15-.3″ of ice. The whole storm clears out late this evening leaving a goregoues weekend for all.
Models have been tracking a little bit farther west and that means rain for the coast as well as some freezing rain and snow at the very beginning. Snow/mix/freezing rain will all change over to rain around daybreak. Inland will see snoe changing to mix/freezing rain around midday and Te mountains will see mostly snow with occaionial sleet mixing in. Amounts will go as following: Southern coast as well as the immediate middcoast and southern interior-1-2″ inland and midcoast and foothills-3-6″ Mountains and North 4-8″.
It is a mild start to the workweek this week with a strong low pressure over the Great Lakes will track northward through Ontario and eventually Northern Quebec. This low will swing a warm front north through the area tonight bringing a period of light rain at the coast, and freezing rain or rain inland with possibly some snow changing to rain in the far north and mountains. Tuesday will be extremely mild with 50 degrees in Portland and Yarmouth anywhere north of that will see temps in the 40s except for the mountains where around 40 or a little under can be expected.
Mid Atlantic: Cold front Tuesday will bring cooler temps to the area and will bring a line of showers and t-storms Tuesday.
Saturday across the Mid Atlantic will feature snow north of a Baltimore-Philidelphia- NYC line clearing for Sunday morning with a cooler Sunday for everyone. Our next storm will track throught the Mid Atlantic Sunday night trowing clouds across the Mid Atlantic Sunday ahead of the storm. Monday will feature rain for most of NE with some snow at the onset of precipitation as cold air is firmly in place.
Snow will start to move in tonight and will be over the area by dawn and moving northward through the day. North of Augusta ME will see no accumulations while anywhere north of Portland and south of Agusta will see around 1-3″ and York County will see 3-4″. Seacoast NH will see 3-5″ and Boston North will see 3-5 due to some sleet possibly mixing in there.6-8″ in northern CT including Hartford and surrounding areas.
Sunday will feature some clouds for the Mid Atlantic out ahead of the next storm that will bring rain for the East Coast starting sunday night and then into monday and monday night lingering into tuesday for northern NE
Overview: Strong low pressure will move swiftly out the mouth of the St Laurence and has already pushed a cold front through overnight. Strong winds will develop behind the front bringing in cold air. Winds will gust to close to 50 mph out of the W or possibly WNW or NW. Tomorrow will feature clouding skies and a lot less wind. Thursday night will bring a clipper system to the area developing a coastal low in the southern Gulf Of Maine. These two systems will bring close to 6″ to the midcoast and Central Maine with 4-5″ along the coastal plain ( the waterline to around 10 miles inland) with 2-4″ in the mountains 3-5 is likely in the far north. Saturday will feature a second clipper system and coastal low so the results will be very similar to that of the Thursday night storm. Monday will feature yet another storm and since the models diverge and the storm is in the long range forecast details are uncertain but we do think that as of right now it looks like a wintry mix along the coast with more snow inland.
Details: Winds will pick up as the day goes on peaking at around 9am with 50+ mph gusts and sustained winds peaking at around the same time at 25-30 mph. This wind will bring in colder air and will set the stage for two systems which will affect the area Thursday and Saturday nights.These two systems will bring close to 6″ to the midcoast and Central Maine with 4-5″ along the coastal plain ( the waterline to around 10 miles inland) with 2-4″ in the mountains 3-5 is likely in the far north. After that we will find a quiet and cold end to the weekend. Monday however will be different with temps at the coast in the mid 30s so at this point it looks like a tricky forecast and a mix at the coast.
Mid Atlantic: Windy today but winds will calm as the day goes on and become cooler. This cooler air will set the stage for some flurries for Thursday night although the southern sections will not get too much precipitation in the next week with Thursday and Saturday nights being the only two times precipitation in the southern sections. The northern sections however will get some more prolonged snow showers Thursday and Saturday nights which could leave a coating to an inch on grassy surfaces.
Overveiw: As we continue to endure some truly terrible ( or awesome for those of you that hate snow) january rain this evening and most of us are wondering where all the snow is. Well it is coming on Thursday night and then possibly saturday as well. But at a price, wind. Winds will blow hard and strong tomorrow out of the W or NW.
Specifics:
Rain will wrap up this evening as low pressure from the great lakes moves northeast out of Lake Huron and up the St. Laurence valley tonight and tomorrow. This low will drag a cold front across the region starting in the Mid Atlantic with thunderstorms there and then across the NE with some rain showers quickly changing over to snow with the passage of the front. Winds behind the front will blow strong on Wednesday ushering in cold air. This cold air will set the stage for snow on Thursday night with around 3-4″ expected by Friday morning. A clipper system moves in Saturday with snow and possibly a mix along the coast.
Mid Atlantic will be generally the same but but rain in for Thursday night as a low pressure system undergoes cyclogenisis off of Cape Cod late on Thursday. Saturdays system will be too far north to cause more than some patchy clouds and the chance for a shower for the northern sections ( northern NJ and NYC)
UPDATE: 1:45pm EST curent observations show a bout 4″ have already fallen here in Yarmouth with higher totals WSW of here. Another 4-8″ is expected bringing the forecast totals to a little less than a foot at the coast with higher amounts inland and in the mountains. Temperatures will warm to about 31 before dropping. Tonight will feature freezing rain amounting to around .15-.25″ travel will be tricky if not outright dangerous until around 3:00 tomorrow.
Forecasterjack 