Not a lot has changed from this morning in regards to tonight’s forecast. Snow is ongoing across the area now but big accumulations will hold off until after around 9 PM when a very heavy band looks to sweep NE. As it does so, it will be intensifying and slowing down.
HRRR Model Showing Intense Snow Sweeping NE This Evening. Credit: Weatherbell
The farther NE you go, the heavier the band will be and the longer it will last. In this band, look for very intense snowfall rates of 2-4″ per hour along with gusty winds and potentially thunder. It won’t last terribly long for most, maybe an hour or two, but in that time, the snow will really pile up. If you are driving late tonight look for very dangerous driving conditions with near whiteout conditions. Thankfully, the worst of the storm will be from 9PM to around midnight. After that, the snow abruptly shuts off and NW winds pick up. Some snow showers could linger through tomorrow morning especially in the mountains and NE.
I still like my snow map from this morning. Remember, most of this falls in just a few hours late tonight. It will be quite a show if you happen to be awake for it!
Be careful tomorrow as winds will be gusting near 45mph which will blow around the new snow. The greatest threat for reduced visibility due to blowing snow is inland where the snow will be fluffier.
Initially there were concerns about coastal mixing and that is still possible but observations show cold air hanging tough for everyone but the outer peninsulas. Should this change between now and when the heavy band blasts through, areas east of Route 1 could see reduced accumulations.
Believe it or not, we got another storm lined up! More snow, possibly significant, could arrive Saturday. There are significant questions so the details will have to wait a while but know the potential is definitely there! Welcome to winter the way it should be!
A jucier than normal morning post today as the forecast for this evening is fascinating and very complicated. Before the snow arrives, look for increasing clouds with highs in the 20’s inland, low 30’s along the coast. Snow should arrive around 4 PM or a little after, then things get interesting.
0Z GEM Showing The Setup. Image Credit: Weatherbell
The setup from yesterday evening’s post remains largely the same this morning. Low pressure currently over Michigan will move E into southern Ontario this afternoon. Secondary low pressure will develop to our SW and move NE east of us. How fast this low develops is the key to the forecast. The general idea is that the combination of tons of upper level energy, warm ocean waters, and a favorable upper level setup (VERY negatively tilted trough for those that understand) will lead to rapid development just offshore.
0Z GEM Showing Intense Banding Across Western Maine Tonight. Credit: Accuweather
Intense snow bands will begin to develop along with the low but when and thus where these bands develop is still an unknown. We do now have a slightly better idea of where to look for the heaviest snow, the lightest snow, and where it could go either way. This is a very complicated situation and I mean it when I say there is high bust potential here. With that being said, I doubt York County sees much more than 2-4 or maybe 5″. It looks like things pull together just a little too late down there. The Midcoast and areas NE of Augusta/Auburn are likely to see a solid 6-10/8-12″ snow. It’s the areas in between that are really tricky.
This is what I anticipate snow amounts to look like. Uncertainty is very high especially NE of York County and SE of Augusta.
Even in areas without much accumulation in terms of raw numbers, expect difficult travel as the snow will fall very heavily. There is also the chance that those in the heaviest bands see thundersnow this evening as well.
The immediate coast could mix with rain this evening before the heaviest stuff arrives. If this happens, watch for a rapid refreeze which would cause dangerous travel in those areas. Right now I think the peninsulas are most at risk for this but anyone east of Route 1 should be watchful.
Snow moves out tonight leaving a cold and gusty wind for tomorrow.
We’re heading into a period of active weather this week and our first storm is up tomorrow. This one is tracking to our west and thus we’re on the warm side. This will be an all rain event with temps soaring into the 40’s. Winds will also be extremely strong gusting near 60mph at the coast.
Overview
12Z GEM Showing Low Pressure Moving To Our West (Black Arrow) And Heavy Rain Over Our Area (Red Circle). Image Credit: Weatherbell
Low Pressure is developing over Arkansas right now and will move NNE tonight through tomorrow while strengthening. This storm will drive a cold front through the region tomorrow night. Ahead of the front, look for heavy rain, strong winds, and warm temps. Conditions behind the front look cold and windy as arctic air moves in. Now that we’ve set the stage, lets dig into the details.
Rain
18Z GFS Showing A Region-Wide 1-2.5″ Rainfall. Credit: Weatherbell
Rain will move in tomorrow morning and will become heavy by early afternoon. In terms of amounts, a general 1-2.5″ is expected with the highest amounts falling in areas where heavy rain is enhanced by upsloping SE winds. Any SE facing slopes are at risk for the 2-2.5″ totals. With the snowpack being marginal at best, widespread flooding isn’t likely but some rivers and streams could run high enough to cause minor issues in any usual trouble spots. A flood watch is out for much of the area due to this threat.
Wind
12Z GFS Showing Very Strong Winds Just Above The Surface. Credit: Accuweather
I think the biggest story will be the winds. The map at right is the winds just above the surface, NOT winds at the surface. The numbers on the map are knots so the winds between 2,500 and 5,000 feet are hurricane force. NOT all these winds will mix down to the surface by any means. That being said, winds will be very gusty as heavy rain helps to transport winds aloft down to the surface. Winds along the coast especially NE of Portland are likely to gust over 55mph. This could cause a few isolated power outages so watch for those if you usually see darkness during storms like this. All in all, not a massive windstorm but some branches are likely to come down and could cause a few issues. Also be sure to secure anything that might blow around outside (sleds, shovels, etc).
Other Impacts
There could be some thunder in the heaviest precip. Nothing crazy but that’s not something we usually hear here in Maine in January especially with rain (thundersnow happens sometimes with strong Nor’easters but rarely to we break enough into the warm sector for thunder).
On the back side of the storm, cold air will be rushing into the region on strong NW winds. Look for subfreezing air to blast into the area Monday and any leftover puddles will freeze. As a result, look for slick roads Monday and Monday night.
SE winds will be strong tomorrow but won’t last for a long time. As a result, coastal flooding impacts should be minimal. Some splashover/erosion is likely and the usual trouble spots could see some issues but no major impacts are likely.
Cold air moves in Monday and lasts through the week with snow threats midweek and next weekend. Those are still far out so details will have to wait to be figured out.
I’ll have another update tomorrow morning. I’ll also have updates through the day over on the Facebook page.
Most of the heavy snow and sleet is off to our NE now as the mid levels dry out. Despite a lack of heavy precip, snow and sleet will still remain across the area this evening with another inch or so of snow and a coating of sleet and possibly a glaze of freezing rain as well. This continued light precip will cause roads to remain slick through the next few hours so continue to use caution if travelling.
Seeing as the storm is winding down, this will be my last update today. I’ll be back tomorrow morning with a look at tomorrow’s weather.
-Jack
10:30 AM Update
Heavy snow and sleet is ongoing across the region currently although the worst of the worst is now mainly NE of Portland. I expect moderate to heavy snow and sleet to continue for the next few hours with the worst gradually sliding NE. This afternoon, look for the second phase of the storm which is already beginning across southern areas which includes lighter mixed precip.
In Yarmouth, what I’ve been seeing generally seems to match up with other reports I’m seeing on mPING and on Twitter from folks across southern areas. Snow has been heavy here and is mixing with sleet. The sleet is piling up though, I’ve gotten about an inch of sleet on top of 4.5″ of snow as of 10:30. Keep in mind everything is still quite slick out there so use caution if traveling!
-Jack
7:45 AM Update
Snow continues across the region this morning. Here in Yarmouth, there was a period of sleet around 7 but the precip has since turned back to all snow as heavier precip moved in. As of 7:45, the precip remains all snow with very efficient accumulation. Due to cold temps around the area (10’s for most, 20’s coastal York county), the snow is dry and fluffy. I suggest shoveling/snowblowing now before the sleet turns the snow into frozen cement. Snow and sleet will continue with sleet moving north east through the morning. It seems that a middle of the road solution is playing out across areas north of York County with snow during times of heavy precip and sleet when precip is lighter. This will continue through the morning.
There are reports of many accidents across the are this morning and roads are very slick especially if your area is seeing sleet. Use extra caution on the roads today if you must travel. Also, remember to use your mPING app today! There has already been tons of great data flowing in and it’s really helping with the forecast!
-Jack
Original 6:15 AM Update
Hello everyone!
Today will feature a messy winter storm as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes. Warm air will be rising up and over a well-defined cold pool at the surface. This is the lifting that will produce moderate to heavy precip today. I’ve been digging into the depths of the forecast the past few evenings and now it’s time to bring it all together.
Morning Snow
HRRR Model IDEA On How Precip Unfolds This Morning. Keep In Mind This Appears To Be On The Cooler Side Of The Solutions. Credit: Weatherbell
Snow is falling across northern parts of New England this morning. Sleet has mixed in as far north as Manchester, NH as well indicating a warm layer already developing aloft. There are two possible solutions with this morning’s snowfall. Our first option is that the sleet line progresses as it has in the past hour unimpeded in its relentless march NE. This would result in sleet arriving during the heaviest of the precip, several hours earlier than last night’s forecast. Should this occur, look for totals lower or just under the lower end of the range from last night’s map (re-posted below). The other idea (this is the one you see above with the HRRR) is that the precip is so heavy that it dynamically cools the atmosphere. This has to do with the displacement of mass and is a topic for another day but the point is that if this occurs, the mid levels of the atmosphere could cool enough to allow for a little more precip to fall as snow thus resulting in totals more towards the middle or even upper end of the total ranges. Be prepared for either of these solutions. Remember even though it accumulates more slowly, sleet is icier and more slippery than snow. It is harder to drive in. Take it slow out there this morning.
Lingering Precip This Afternoon
After the initial burst of snow comes through this morning, precip will shift to a lighter more spotty type. This will fall any number of ways depending on your location. A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely across the south with snow and sleet farther north and all snow up in the mountains. The freezing rain expected across the south will continue to cause very slick roads. Slick travel is expected everywhere today but in terms of a complete lack of traction, nothing beats .1-.3″ of ice on top of an inch or two of sleet on top of 4-6″ of snow.
Help Forecasters Track The Storm!
Given the plethora of precip types incoming with this storm, tomorrow would be a great time to give the mPING app a workout! Over the past few days you’ve seen how hard it is to forecast multiple precip types. Here’s a chance for you to help forecasters out! Simply download the free app and take a look outside! Send in your report of snow, sleet, freezing rain, or rain and you can help forecasters like me with forecasting multiple precip type events! The data is sent to the National Severe Storms Laboratory to help with radar development which gives models better data which improves forecasts. Read all about it over on the NSSL webpage. Also through that website, you can view your report and everyone else’s reports to track the rain/snow/sleet line in real-time! This is one of my most valuable tools for tracking the mix line to verify the forecast/make adjustments if needed. Happy reporting!
Totals
Forecast Total Snow/Ice Through Tuesday Night
I keep my map the same this morning as I think each solution (warm or cold) is equally likely. There are interesting radar trends that indicate the colder solution is playing out though you can’t go against hurricane force winds 10,000 feet up blasting in warm air.
Live Blog
We’ll know more as the morning goes on and I’ll keep updating this post as I see changes happening. Keep checking back right here through the morning and I’ll have new info at the top of the page as it comes in. I will also be on twitter with updates all morning @JackSillin.
Here is the link to last night’s post as the information there more or less remains the same.
A cold front is currently moving east through the region and will push offshore this evening. Behind it, a sprawling high pressure system will build in straight from Western Canada bringing with it our first real shot of cold air. On Tuesday, warm air from the tropics blasted up the coast by the storm currently causing trouble in Texas will smash into the cold air and a good burst of snow will result. Here’s how I think it will play out and why.
The Cold Air: Tomorrow
12Z GFS Model Idea Of High Temps Tomorrow Showing Very Cold Air In Place. Credit: Weatherbell
Highs will remain below freezing tomorrow for everyone except maybe far southern York County. Highs near the international border will struggle to get out of the single digits. That doesn’t include the NW breeze which will definitely be felt. This is our source of cold air for Tuesday. Prepare for January like temps and wind chills which compared to this torch of a December will feel quite chilly!
The Moisture: Monday Night
12Z GFS Model Showing Moisture From The Gulf Of Mexico Plowing Northward Monday Night. Image Credit: Weatherbell
At the same time, the storm that is bringing a slew of problems to Texas will be moving North through the Ohio valley. This will set up a feed of warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico right up the coast to Maine. This will cause some concerns as the moist air also comes with warmth which will cause concerns for mixing towards the end.
The Collision: Tuesday
The cold air comes tomorrow and the moisture arrives on Tuesday. The collision is what will cause the snow. At the moment this looks like a front end thump of snow during the day Tuesday followed by a lighter period of mixed snow/sleet/freezing drizzle/drizzle on Tuesday night. Let’s dig into the snow first.
12Z GFS Model Showing Strong Plenty Of Energy To Produce Heavy Snow Tuesday Afternoon. Credit: Accuweather
As warm air plows northward, it will run into the cold air that arrives tonight into tomorrow. This will allow for heavy snow to form on the leading edge of the warm air as it is forced up and over the cold air. This map from the 12Z GFS shows strong forcing (that’s how the moisture in the air is squeezed out) Tuesday morning. Expect slick roads and heavy snow starting Tuesday morning and lasting through Tuesday afternoon/evening. This is when most of the snow will fall. A general 4-8″ is expected with some seeing more and some less. See the snowfall map below for more details.
Mixing Concerns
12Z GFS Showing Warm Air Aloft Creeping In Tuesday Afternoon. Credit: Accuweather
Southwest winds bringing the warm moist air into the region will eventually bring in warm enough air to start causing mixing problems especially in Southern New England. My current thinking is that Warm air aloft gets as far north as the MA state line during the tail end of the steady precip. Lighter precip will linger through the evening and areas as far north as Portland could see some light sleet/freezing rain overnight Tuesday. If warm air moves in earlier/farther north than forecast which is a possibility, totals could be cut down in SW ME and NH. Northeast of route 26 is likely safe from any impactful sleet.
12Z CMC Showing A Tight Temperature Gradient Along The Coast Associated With The Coastal Front. Image Credit: Weatherbell
The other concern for precip type will be along the immediate coast where a coastal front is likely to form. There will likely be a tight temperature gradient along this front and if you end up on the SE side, temps could rise high enough to change the precip to a rain/snow mix. This threat is greatest along the coast south of Portland and along the tips of the peninsulas. Wherever this sets up, look just to the NW for heavier precip associated with the warm ocean air moving up and over the cold locked in at the surface. Warm air rising over cold air is what is causing this whole mess on a large scale, the same thing happens on a small scale.
After the main snow event moves east Tuesday evening, lingering low level moisture will contribute to light mixed precip lingering through the first half of Tuesday night. As warm air completes its invasion aloft Tuesday evening, this could fall any of a number of ways, snow, sleet, freezing rain, or rain. The precip will be light so the impact on snowfall totals will be limited.
I’m thinking that because the moisture is below the warm layers, it stays mostly snow. The warm air moves in at 700mb (10,000 feet or so) but the cold stays tough below that (the blue lines on the map above indicate subfreezing temps at 5,000 feet). The moisture is in the low levels (where the cold air is) and thus even though 700mb is warm, I could definitely see another inch of snow as the snow falls in the low level cold layer. Regardless, this will keep roads slick through Tuesday night despite the heavy precip being gone.
Expected Snowfall
Expected Snowfall
Looking at the final snowfall amounts, I expect a general 4-8″ for Northern New England with less to the south. I think someone sees 10 or 11″ and the best chance looks to be either in the mountains where deep cold stays really locked in contributing to a drier snowfall that accumulates faster or near the coast where the coastal front contributes to more liquid falling from the sky. The coastal ‘jackpot’ area largely depends on the ocean air staying farther SE and the sleet being kept at bay. The northern Jackpot is dependant on enough moisture moving that far north. A coastal low developing Tuesday evening will try to steal some of the moisture from NW areas.
I’ll have another update tomorrow evening on the storm, details on tomorrow’s weather will come tomorrow morning.
4:15PM Radar Shows Rain Slowly Expanding NW. Image Credit: Accuweather, Annotations By Me
Rain is already spreading across the area this afternoon as a plume of moisture moves north. The immediate coastline and the inland portion of the midcoast is currently seeing light to moderate rain and this will continue through the evening with rain slowly expanding NW. Light to moderate rain should continue throughout most of the early part of the night mainly east of the Turnpike.
12Z GFS Giving Us An Overview Of The Storm, Map Credit: Weatherbell, Annotations By Me.
The main feature of this storm will be a sharp gradient on the back side of the system with 5 or 10 miles making up the difference between a few sprinkles and a half inch of rain ending as an inch of snow. As a result, the forecast is especially touchy for areas west of the Midcoast where 1-4″ is likely depending on elevation. Once you get to the I-295/I-95 corridor, a very sharp dropoff in snow totals is likely with some areas seeing up to 2″ and others but a few midnight flakes.
20Z HRRR Model IDEA On How The Storm Winds Down Tomorrow Morning. Map Credit: Weatherbell, Annotations By Me
All precip, rain or snow, comes to an end early tomorrow morning with everyone west of I-95 dry by sunup and everyone else soon thereafter. The rest of tomorrow looks cool but nice with clearing skies and NW winds bringing in cooler and drier air.
18Z NAM Showing The Negatively Tilted Trough And The Winds Out Ahead Of It Directing The Storm Westward Up The Coast. Map Credit: Weatherbell, Annotations By Me
Every storm has a surprise and by virtue of surprises, they largely remain unknown but if there was one place I had to guess there would be a surprise, it’s where there’s been one already. There were indications that the trough at the 500mb level would be negatively tilted with this storm for days. Finally, the surface forecasts caught up to that and in the past 24 hours the forecast has gone from ‘chance of a flurry midcoast’ to ‘many people get their first accumulating snow’. This trend has smoothed out with the afternoon guidance today but don’t be surprised if this thing comes a tad farther west and instead of a dusting, you end up with 2″ of snow. After all, it would really only take 25 miles to make that big of a difference for some.
12Z GFS Showing NW Winds Bringing In Colder (And Drier) Air Which Could Shut Off Precip Early
The other, equally possible surprise is that the same cold NW winds bringing in the cold air to change things over to snow also come with enough dry air to shut off the precip early, especially because NW winds downslope off the mountains which dries the air even more. For a full explanation of downsloping in relation to temperature, check out my neat weather tidbit from a few weeks ago. While that post talks specifically about temperature, the same principle applies to moisture in that when air rises, moisture condenses and forms clouds/precip etc. just like it cools and when it sinks, the opposite happens. The post also includes a general overview on downsloping which applies to this forecast.
While the last two paragraphs could reasonably be perceived as me covering myself in case the forecast goes wrong, my hope is that in case it does, you can at least know why. As I’ve said several times, part of my goal here is to educate you about why weather happens as well as to tell you what’s likely to happen.
Speaking of what’s likely to happen, here’s a look at how much snow to expect when all is said and done. All in all, not a big deal but it still will be nice to see the flakes flying in November.
I’ll have another update on tomorrow’s weather in the morning.
5:10 AM Radar Showing Very Heavy Rain Across NE Areas With Lighter More Scattered Precip Back To Our West.
Our long-awaited storm is here and heavy rain is falling across the area with the expected strong winds as accompaniment. The heaviest of rain is north and east of Portland as of 5:15 this morning and this area of intense rain/wind will continue to move NE in the coming hours. Behind that lies a batch of very heavy rain over SE MA and lighter showers over eastern NY. The SE MA rain is moving NE and will likely impact the midcoast with another round of torrential rain and gusty winds. More showers lurk back in NY associated with cold front #1 today and expect one last shot at intense rain and driving winds as this moves through.
HRRR Model IDEA On How Rain Evolves Today. Notice Showers Around 9 AM Then More Showers/Thunderstorms Later In The Evening. Credit: Weatherbell
Behind those showers, which arrive 9-10 AM, expect clearing skies and warming temps. By mid/late afternoon, temps in the 70’s are likely under partly sunny skies. Another cold front moves through this evening which touches off some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms too. For a minute, it just may feel more like August than October. Temps drop a bit behind the front but a continued stretch of very mild weather looks to be on the way for the next week or so.
Not too much has changed since yesterday in terms of our upcoming heavy rain event. Here’s a quick updated rundown of what to expect.
Rain
12Z Canadian HRDPS Model Showing Deep Moisture Flooding Into The Area On Strong SE Winds. Map Valid 6AM Thursday. Credit: Weatherbell
Rain moves in during the evening hours tomorrow arriving in SW areas around 5 or 6 tomorrow evening with most of the area seeing rain by 7 or 8 PM. The heavier rain will hold off until later in the evening beginning in the west around 9 and spreading east through midnight. Between midnight and 6 AM or so, expect the worst conditions to occur with heavy rain being driven by strong winds.
NWS WPC Total Rainfall Forecast Through Thursday. Tan/Orange Areas Show 1-2″ Amounts While The Red Colors In The Mountains Show 2-2.5″ Totals. Credit: Weatherbell
While available moisture (Precipitable Water, shown above) is quite high, as well as forcing for wringing out that moisture, the ideal parameters are only really in place for about 6 hours early Thursday morning. As a result, total rainfall will be limited somewhat compared to if this was a more slowly moving system. A total of 1-1.5″ of rain is likely with 2-2.5″ amounts on south-facing mountain slopes.
Wind
12Z GFS BUFKIT Plot Showing 50kt Winds Below The Mixing Layer Early Thursday Morning.
Winds will become gusty tomorrow afternoon out of the SE as the front approaches. Expect winds building throughout the day with peak gusts arriving in the same 6 hour window as the heaviest rain from 12-6 AM Thursday. Most areas should see 15-25 mph winds with gusts to 35mph while the coast sees 25-35 mph winds gusting to near 60 mph. The plot above shows winds (everything but the yellow line, in knots) and the mixing layer (yellow line). Any winds below the yellow line are eligible to mix down to the surface in heavy precip. In heavy precip early Thursday morning, someone along the coast is likely to see some of those intense winds aloft mixed down on the order of 50-60 mph. The greatest threat for this is the NE coast closer to Penobscot Bay where a wind Advisory is up. All coastal areas should be prepared for strong winds, the chart above is for Portland.
Takeaway
Rain begins tomorrow evening becoming heavy late at night. Winds will also be on the increase out of the SE. Peak rain and wind occurs 12-6 AM Thursday with wind gusts approaching 60 mph along the coast. A total of 1-1.5″ of rain is likely with more on the south-facing mountain slopes where 2-2.5″ is likely.
I’ll have more updates tomorrow in a similar patter to today’s updates.
Our storm is moving out this morning and most of the accumulations are done with the exception of NE areas where heavy snow bands will continue for another few hours. For the rest of us, some dry air at around 10,000 feet is causing precip to shut off and thus most of southern Maine is now dry.
That’s not to say precip is completely done, the upper low is only just beginning the process of moving through the area and everyone will likely see another round of snow this afternoon as it finishes its crossing.
HRRR Model Simulated Radar Animation. Credit: Weatherbell
Here is the HRRR model showing one more round of snow this afternoon before the storm moves out for good. Expect these snow showers/squalls to be heaviest between 1 and 6 PM this evening before moving out around 8 or 9 PM tonight.
Temps will be falling today starting in the 30’s this morning and crashing through the 20’s this evening. The mountains will likely see readings in the 10’s while the coast likely stays in the 20’s.
Precip is already falling across much of the area as our next storm moves in. Expect snow to flip quickly to freezing rain/rain along the coast but remain all snow inland this evening. Currently, some weak divergence aloft is causing a heavy snow band to move through Cumberland County on its way NE.
925mb Analysis Showing Divergence Aloft Over Southern Maine/New Hampshire
This divergence is causing a brief heavy snow burst which, despite warm temps, is accumulating on some of the roads so use caution if you happen to be driving this afternoon.
3:30 PM Radar Showing A Heavy Burst Of Snow Moving NE Across Coastal Areas
Warmer air will continue to flood into coastal regions this afternoon though after looking at data from a special sounding (vertical profile of the atmosphere) from the NWS in Gray, models appear to have had a warm bias with this event and thus a tad more frozen precip is expected especially away from the immediate coast.
HRRR Model Simulated Rader Animation. Credit: Weatherbell
Here is the HRRR model’s take on what the first phase of our storm will look like through the wee hours of tomorrow morning. This model does a good job showing the rain/snow line advancing this evening with heavy snow across the interior and rain across coastal areas. I would advise taking this model with a grain of salt however as it shoots the rain line past Lewiston. When accounting for the warm bias of the models for this event, the rain line should approach the Lewiston area but is not likely to pass it especially considering the snowpack we still have on the ground.
12Z GFS Upper Level Energy Map. Credit: Weatherbell
The second phase of the storm occurs tomorrow when a strong upper low crosses the area. Expect temps to crash tonight as NW winds behind a developing secondary low move cold air into the region. As a result, tomorrow’s part of the storm will be an mostly snow event which is where the coast picks up their accumulation. There is still some debate as to if/when/where an inverted trough might setup to help focus the precip so uncertainty still remains. Precip looks to move out tomorrow evening from west to east.
Here is the latest snowfall forecast showing the coast escaping with little more than a dusting while the mountains see the jackpot with 8-12″. Due to warmer temps, this will be a wet and heavy snow so watch for a few isolated power outages as trees sag under the weight of the snow.
Forecasterjack 