A Dynamic And Intense Storm Arrives This Evening

Hello everyone!

A jucier than normal morning post today as the forecast for this evening is fascinating and very complicated. Before the snow arrives, look for increasing clouds with highs in the 20’s inland, low 30’s along the coast. Snow should arrive around 4 PM or a little after, then things get interesting.

0Z GEM Showing The Setup. Image Credit: Weatherbell
0Z GEM Showing The Setup. Image Credit: Weatherbell

The setup from yesterday evening’s post remains largely the same this morning. Low pressure currently over Michigan will move E into southern Ontario this afternoon. Secondary low pressure will develop to our SW and move NE east of us. How fast this low develops is the key to the forecast. The general idea is that the combination of tons of upper level energy, warm ocean waters, and a favorable upper level setup (VERY negatively tilted trough for those that understand) will lead to rapid development just offshore.

0Z GEM Showing Intense Banding Across Western Maine Tonight. Credit: Accuweather
0Z GEM Showing Intense Banding Across Western Maine Tonight. Credit: Accuweather

Intense snow bands will begin to develop along with the low but when and thus where these bands develop is still an unknown. We do now have a slightly better idea of where to look for the heaviest snow, the lightest snow, and where it could go either way. This is a very complicated situation and I mean it when I say there is high bust potential here. With that being said, I doubt York County sees much more than 2-4 or maybe 5″. It looks like things pull together just a little too late down there. The Midcoast and areas NE of Augusta/Auburn are likely to see a solid 6-10/8-12″ snow. It’s the areas in between that are really tricky.

Screenshot (10)

This is what I anticipate snow amounts to look like. Uncertainty is very high especially NE of York County and SE of Augusta.

Even in areas without much accumulation in terms of raw numbers, expect difficult travel as the snow will fall very heavily. There is also the chance that those in the heaviest bands see thundersnow this evening as well.

The immediate coast could mix with rain this evening before the heaviest stuff arrives. If this happens, watch for a rapid refreeze which would cause dangerous travel in those areas. Right now I think the peninsulas are most at risk for this but anyone east of Route 1 should be watchful.

Snow moves out tonight leaving a cold and gusty wind for tomorrow.

I’ll have another update tonight.

-Jack

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