This is a special post to tell everyone that many of the models seem to like the idea of a powerful nor’easter heading up the coast next week.
Stay Tuned for updates!
-Jack
Tag Archives: United States
Last update on Sandy as it moves through PA
This is my last analysis of Superstorm Sandy as it is now weakening at a steady clip and although it will continue to affect many along the interior Mid-Atlantic area, it is becoming less and less of a threat. Sandy should be done with us by Thursday and impacts from now on should be much less severe.
Sandy has caused damage in the 10’s of billions of dollars according to Jeff Masters of Weather Underground. This will really not do to much to help the economy and will likely set us back quite a bit. This could most definately affect the presidential election.
Sandy is now weakening over Central PA and will continue to spin north and weaken even more as it moves into Canada. Impacts will be wrapping up and the rainfall should slow down considerably as pressures rise and winds fall. We should be completely done with Sandy by Friday.
From now on, I will expirement with making a graphic every Wednesday evening and posting it here. This might work well or it might not. We will see. My first one will be tomorrow evening. Here is one for tonight.
Afternoon update: storm moving ashore now in NJ, Battery park; other low-lying areas brace for historic flooding
Now this is crunch time. The center of circulation is bearing down on the NJ coast and the winds are picking up here in Maine.
Rain is now moving into the Detroit area now and is continuing steadily in most of the mid-atlantic states.
Forecasts are now holding steady and true (see posts below) and so I will not elaborate too much here.
New update from NHC:
NW movement at 28mph
pressure 940mb
winds 90mph
Hunker down and stay safe!
-JAck
Climate forecast
Winter 2012-2013:
There will be a weak El Nino and a likely negative PDO. In more simple terms, an area of moderately warm waters off the coast off Peru (El Nino) and Cooler waters off the SW coast of Alaska(Negative PDO). So what does this mean for the US? It means that the eastern seaboard will see cooler temperatures so it will be a cooler than normal winter for the eastern third of the country. Also this set of conditions favors a pattern known as the Greenland block. This is when a ridge of high pressure sits over Greenland and causes the jet stream (which is a “storm highway” and the divide between warm and cold) to dive south into the Eastern US. This ridging will vary from week to week this winter and will not be as strong as 2010-2011. The East will see Above-average precipitation (likely in the form of snow due to below average temperatures. In the Center of the country there will be the other counterpart to the Eastern trough, the high where the jet stream rises warm air and dry air into the nations heartland causing lower than average snow levels and worsening drought. In the Western US it should be a fairly average winter other than the fact that the Pacific storms will be more powerful and more frequent.
Stay tuned!
-Jack
Snow storm Thursday
A powerful winter storm is preparing to slam the region with heavy snow as well as some wind though the snow will really grab headlines. 8-12″ are expected in Cumberland and York Counties in ME and most of SW NH as well. 3-6″ in northern NH and in ME North to Augusta. 1-3″ in northern ME.
A powerful low will extend a warm front ahead of its move SE under a powerful high. This will bring a good steady snow and efficient accumulation. see other post for more in-depth analysis.
Stay tuned!
-JAck
Stormy friday
Friday will feature essentually a very stormy day. Rain at the immediate coast and snow in the mountains with mix in between.
Going in depth a little more… A low will intensify as it moves NE out of the Ohio valley and into New England Friday morning. Snow will overspread the region Thursday night and will stay snow across the entire forecast area untill ~8am. This is where the forecast becomes very tricky. The coast south of Portland will experiance the changeover first with rain overrunning that area and remaining locked in place as warm air pushes north. Meanwhile a secondary low undergoes cyclogenesis over Cape Cod. Depending on how strong this low gets, the warm air could stall or even retreat slightly.
There are 3 dominant senarios for the secondary low development: 1) 2nd low deepens more rapidly and pulls in significant cold air therefore resulting in more significant coastal snows. 2) 2nd low fizzles and gets absorbed by intensifying main low therefore pulling in little to no cold air resulting in minimal coastal snows and hevier upslope snow. 3) 2nd low deepens at a marginal rate resulting in a moderate amount of cold air being pulled in and causing the warm air to be bottled up resulting in a sharp coastal front with a steep temperature difference. The exact placement of this front will likely determine the rain snow line if senerio 3 plays out
Stay tuned!
-JAck
Not as mild but still above average
Today a cold front moved through the area bringing in cooler temps for the week topping out wednesday in the mid to lower 30s for southern NH and southern ME 30s south into CT and 40s South to Philadelphia. 50s into VA and MD. Thursday will be similar and partly cloudy like wednesday. Friday will feature precipitation in northern NE but is a little early to go into details.
Stay tuned!
-Jack
Saturday Snow and Monday Night Rain
Saturday across the Mid Atlantic will feature snow north of a Baltimore-Philidelphia- NYC line clearing for Sunday morning with a cooler Sunday for everyone. Our next storm will track throught the Mid Atlantic Sunday night trowing clouds across the Mid Atlantic Sunday ahead of the storm. Monday will feature rain for most of NE with some snow at the onset of precipitation as cold air is firmly in place.
Snow will start to move in tonight and will be over the area by dawn and moving northward through the day. North of Augusta ME will see no accumulations while anywhere north of Portland and south of Agusta will see around 1-3″ and York County will see 3-4″. Seacoast NH will see 3-5″ and Boston North will see 3-5 due to some sleet possibly mixing in there.6-8″ in northern CT including Hartford and surrounding areas.
Sunday will feature some clouds for the Mid Atlantic out ahead of the next storm that will bring rain for the East Coast starting sunday night and then into monday and monday night lingering into tuesday for northern NE
Stay Tuned!
-Jack
Snowy stretch ahead for New England while Mid Atlantic Enjoys Mainly Quiet Weather
Overview: Strong low pressure will move swiftly out the mouth of the St Laurence and has already pushed a cold front through overnight. Strong winds will develop behind the front bringing in cold air. Winds will gust to close to 50 mph out of the W or possibly WNW or NW. Tomorrow will feature clouding skies and a lot less wind. Thursday night will bring a clipper system to the area developing a coastal low in the southern Gulf Of Maine. These two systems will bring close to 6″ to the midcoast and Central Maine with 4-5″ along the coastal plain ( the waterline to around 10 miles inland) with 2-4″ in the mountains 3-5 is likely in the far north. Saturday will feature a second clipper system and coastal low so the results will be very similar to that of the Thursday night storm. Monday will feature yet another storm and since the models diverge and the storm is in the long range forecast details are uncertain but we do think that as of right now it looks like a wintry mix along the coast with more snow inland.
Details: Winds will pick up as the day goes on peaking at around 9am with 50+ mph gusts and sustained winds peaking at around the same time at 25-30 mph. This wind will bring in colder air and will set the stage for two systems which will affect the area Thursday and Saturday nights.These two systems will bring close to 6″ to the midcoast and Central Maine with 4-5″ along the coastal plain ( the waterline to around 10 miles inland) with 2-4″ in the mountains 3-5 is likely in the far north. After that we will find a quiet and cold end to the weekend. Monday however will be different with temps at the coast in the mid 30s so at this point it looks like a tricky forecast and a mix at the coast.
Mid Atlantic: Windy today but winds will calm as the day goes on and become cooler. This cooler air will set the stage for some flurries for Thursday night although the southern sections will not get too much precipitation in the next week with Thursday and Saturday nights being the only two times precipitation in the southern sections. The northern sections however will get some more prolonged snow showers Thursday and Saturday nights which could leave a coating to an inch on grassy surfaces.
Stay tuned!
-Jack
Snowy update
UPDATE: 1:45pm EST curent observations show a bout 4″ have already fallen here in Yarmouth with higher totals WSW of here. Another 4-8″ is expected bringing the forecast totals to a little less than a foot at the coast with higher amounts inland and in the mountains. Temperatures will warm to about 31 before dropping. Tonight will feature freezing rain amounting to around .15-.25″ travel will be tricky if not outright dangerous until around 3:00 tomorrow.
Stay tuned!
-Jack
Forecasterjack 