Hello everyone!

Today will feature Day two of being stuck under the influence of this pesky Nor’easter. Expect a break from the steady precip this morning with just a few showers around under continued cloudy skies. This changes in the afternoon hours as another round of precip heads our way. Expect steady rain for most of the area this time around with some sleet/freezing rain in the mountains.

This next round of precip should move in around noon at the coast and slightly after that inland. This round of precip will mostly be confined to ME and NH and SNE should stay out of the steady stuff but showers are still expected. Winds will continue to blow out of the NE but with much less force than last night.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

The forecast is mostly on track this afternoon as warm air continues to pour in both at the surface and aloft. We saw once again today the power of cold air and cold air damming as it took us here in Yarmouth until about 2 PM to switch from freezing rain to rain. Warm air will continue to push inland this afternoon and evening eventually making it all the way to the mountains by late tonight.

Here is a snapshot of current observations across the area showing our cold wedge slowly eroding. Expect continued slippery conditions inland and in the mountains tonight.

Winds are kicking up offshore as are seas (notice the buoys on the map showing wind gusts in the 40mph range with 12-17 foot seas. Expect both of those numbers to rise as the storm strengthens near Long Island. My thoughts from this morning regarding winds remain unchanged and 50-60mph gusts are still expected at the coast with 30-40mph gusts inland.

With wind and soggy ground come power outages and the numbers are already racking up with Knox county currently holding the lead 

Here are the latest numbers from CMP. As expected, most outages are at the coast. As snow piles up in the mountains, expect a few from that area as well.

Here is the map I posted earlier today and I see no reason to change it now. The greatest risk for outages is in the mountains and at the coast.

The heaviest precip should wind down tomorrow morning from SW to NE between 1AM and 7AM. Another slug of moderate-heavy precip will arrive tomorrow afternoon but it will not be as bad as what is happening now. Northeast areas will see the best chance for heavy precip with the next round.

After tomorrow afternoon the steady, heavy stuff moves out and is replaced by precip more showery in nature while the upper low meanders overhead. Impacts from this precip should be minimal though the mountains could pick up another few inches of snow. All precip will come to a close by Saturday with sunny skies finally returning.

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with another update on when this mess finally ends!

-Jack

Hello everyone!

While tomorrow will feature frigid conditions and mainly clear skies in the morning with clouds building in as the day goes on. Frigid temps can be expected tomorrow morning with lows ranging from 10 below to 10 above. I’ll have more details tomorrow morning.

While this update will be a little less detailed than I had hoped, I will still try my best to give you good insight into what will happen tomorrow into Wednesday. Here is an impact-by-impact breakdown of what to expect for the first part of the storm.

Rain

There will be lots and lots of rain with this one, no question about it. Expect amounts in the 2-4″ range for Coastal Maine and New Hampshire as well as most of MA and CT as well as all of RI. This is a pretty straightforward forecast and confidence is moderate-high.

Snow

If you missed the uncertainty, you can find it here in the snow section. Everyone sees some snow to start Tuesday with ocean effect and overrunning but as warm air works in from the ocean, as well as from the SW aloft, the coast should see a switch to rain and the foothills should see a switch to sleet or freezing rain. After the bulk of the precip leaves Tuesday night, things get even more uncertain because the exact track of the upper low will determine who gets a bonus round Wednesday into Thursday. The map below shows totals through Wednesday Morning with the first round.

South of the red line, expect any snow that falls plus any that is on the ground to be long gone by Wednesday  morning.

Wind

Wind will be a big concern here as well due to the developing low and the sprawling high to the north creating a large pressure gradient. Expect sustained winds in the 20-40mph range with gusts over 50 mph possible. There is the possibility of gusts much higher than that but for now 50mph is a safe bet for coastal areas. High winds plus a saturated ground at the coast and heavy snow inland could lead to possibly widespread power outages.

Coastal Flooding

Any time you get a prolonged period of onshore winds, you have to worry about coastal flooding and concerns for coastal flooding are very real along any E/SE facing areas. With a solid day and possibly more of strong onshore winds, expect some splashover and beach erosion.

I’ll have more details on everything tomorrow as the puzzle continues to come together.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Quick update this morning on the evolution of our current storm as well as a sneak peek at the Tuesday storm.

Current temps/winds indicate the coastal front that is determining precip type this morning is not moving much. In fact, south of Brunswick, it is moving east, away from the coast. Most of York county is at or above freezing so expect mainly rain from here on out for that region. Cumberland county is still below freezing except for Cape Elizabeth. With the current evolution of the coastal front, don’t expect this situation to change much today. Midcoast areas East and South of Bath and Whitefield are all rain and will stay that way with temps in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. Inland areas are 100% below freezing and look to stay that way even after precip wraps up.

By the time precip wraps up this afternoon, expect widespread ice amounts of .1-.3″ with the highest amounts showing up across Cumberland and Androscoggin counties. 3-6″ of all snow is expected for the mountains while .25″ of rain can be expected at the midcoast. With all the ice, power outages will be a concern but a minimal one since winds will be minimal.

Looking ahead to our next storm, it appears to be a long and strong one arriving Monday afternoon and possibly sticking around until Thursday. While there are lots of details that still have to be sorted out, I expect significant impacts of some sort for Tuesday especially.

Currently, mostly rain for the coast looks like a good bet but once you get into the mountains on the other side of the upper low, significant snows are possible. Any shift NW would send the snow line into Canada while any shift SE would bring the coast into play for frozen precip.

Wind looks to be the given for almost any scenario as the storm looks to be strong enough to generate a long period of high winds. Depending on the track, these could be out of the NE with snow and thus create power outage concerns or it could be out of the SE with rain, however such an onshore flow would create coastal flooding concerns. Still lots of details to be worked out and I will have a full, map intensive update tomorrow afternoon.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature more cold temps and mainly clear skies with highs only rising into the 20’s and 30’s, much like yesterday, but thankfully sans wind. Some clouds may start to work their way into the region later this afternoon as our next weather maker arrives from the SW.

Our next storm system arrives tomorrow and will be a lot like the one we saw Wednesday. The main difference being that all indications are there will be a weak coastal front with onshore flow to the east and a cold northerly flow to the west. Where this coastal front sets up will be the rain/freezing precip line for this event. Most will see at least some freezing rain although the mountains again look like mostly snow.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature the latest dip in the temperature rollercoaster with NW winds bringing in cooler air. Expect highs to be in the 20’s and 30’s but a stiff NW breeze blowing at 10-20mph will make things feel just a tad cooler then they actually are. Sunny skies will dominate the area with the exception of the mountains where upsloping will provide clouds and a few flurries as well.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature a slippy sloppy start with freezing rain and sleet falling on top of a few inches of fresh snow. Radar and current observations from around the area indicate very slippery travel conditions along with numerous accidents. Many schools are closed or delayed so be sure to check on that before you head out the door. Freezing precip should wrap up by 9 or 10 and warmer air will finally beat out cold air bringing temps up into the 40’s. Cold air will make a return tomorrow after the passage of a cold front tonight.

Our next chance for significant winter weather arrives early next week.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature clear but cold conditions as an arctic high pressure system builds in. Expect mostly sunny skies with the majority of the cloud cover for the area confined to the mountains and SW areas this evening as our next storm approaches. Highs will be in the 20’s north and 30’s south.

Our next storm system moves in tonight and into tomorrow morning bringing a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and of course snow. Expect 2-4″ of snow for the mountains along with .1″ of ice, 1-3″ inland with .1″ of ice and a Dusting-1″ at the coast with a trace of ice. Not all that significant in terms of amounts but nonetheless, the roads tomorrow morning will be bad to say the least. Everyone flips over to rain midday Wednesday as precip wraps up. I may or may not have another post on this tonight depending on how the forecast changes.

-Jack