On And Off Rain Today

Hello everyone!

An upper level low is approaching from the west this morning and out ahead of it is a stream of little bits of energy. As each little bit of energy moves through, showers are expected. Because the energy is not concentrated in one system, the rain will be on and off through the day today as various weak storms move around the area.

12Z GFS Showing A Stream Of Weak, Disorganized Energy Ahead Of An Upper Low. Map Credit: Accuweather, Annotations By Me
12Z GFS Showing A Stream Of Weak, Disorganized Energy Ahead Of An Upper Low. Map Credit: Accuweather, Annotations By Me

The map at right shows what I’m talking about in terms of the disorganized bits of energy. The scale at the bottom shows how much energy is in the air and as you can see, the energy out ahead of the upper low is pretty weak and not concentrated in one area (lots of yellows/oranges instead of purples and whites) like the energy in the low is. Because of this, the surface maps look pretty similar with a bunch of little storms rather than one big storm. As you can imagine, the radar probably won’t look too much different either with small moderate batches of rain rather than one single heavy rain shield. Therefore, rain will be hit or miss today.

hrrr_2015120209_ref_15min_ne

The HRRR model’s simulated radar product (above) helps to visualize this as wave after wave of light to moderate rain rotates through. Animation credit goes to Weatherbell.

I should also note that temps this morning are still around freezing in isolated pockets up north and freezing rain could still be an issue for a few more hours. The NWS has put out a Freezing Rain Advisory for that threat so if you’re traveling in that direction watch for some slick spots.

Temps today will range from the mid to upper 30’s north to the mid 40’s south.

The upper low finally gets close enough to the coast to form a new storm that will once and for all consolidate the disorganized mess of energy that is today’s rain tomorrow and with it up to 6″ of snow is possible for the northern mountains. I’ll have more on that tomorrow morning but figured I’d put it out there today so it wouldn’t be a surprise.

Again, I hope to be able to have an update this evening but am at the mercy of other high school commitments.

-Jack

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