Monthly Archives: February 2016

Another Inland Cutter This Week

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Hello everyone!

The forecast for Wednesday into Thursday remains on track this evening. As it is drawing nearer, I’ll elaborate a little on the expected impacts which include snow, sleet, freezing rain/ice, heavy rain, and wind. I’ll do a quick rundown of each threat. All in all, this will be a fairly typical inland runner and nothing out of the ordinary is expected for Maine. One wave of precip will arrive during the day Wednesday into Wednesday night while the second will arrive Thursday morning and continue through Thursday afternoon. A third wave is likely following that which will last into early Friday morning.

Wave One: Snow

12Z GFS Showing The Setup For Snow Wednesday Morning. Image Credit: Accuweather
12Z GFS Showing The Setup For Snow Wednesday Morning. Image Credit: Accuweather

Ahead of the storm, we have fairly cold air (step outside if you don’t believe me). As per usual, cold air leaves when it pleases and as warm air begins to move north, the first phase of the fight will feature snow Wednesday morning. A general 1-3″ is expected before warm air aloft moves in to turn things over to sleet and freezing rain. A bit more is expected in the mountains where I could see 2-4″. I also wouldn’t be surprised if coastal areas only saw a coating. This will fall overnight tomorrow into the early morning hours Wednesday. As dawn breaks Wednesday, warm air aloft will be gradually changing things over to sleet and freezing rain from south to north.

Wave One: Mix

12Z GFS Showing The Cold Air Damming Setup At The Surface Wednesday Night. Image Credit: Accuweather
12Z GFS Showing The Cold Air Damming Setup At The Surface Wednesday Night. Image Credit: Accuweather

While warm air will stream in unopposed aloft, the cold will put up a good fight at the surface. High pressure will be slowly sliding east across the Canadian Maritimes and I expect low level cold to hang on for a good long time. The map at left shows winds at the surface Wednesday evening. Notice NE winds still locking in cold air at the surface Wednesday night. The development of weak low pressure offshore will aid in this process. This wind will continue to cause problems even into the beginning of wave two which arrives Thursday morning just as this is beginning to erode. Several tenths of an inch of ice are possible and could lead to power outages especially if it doesn’t get a change to melt before the high winds associated with the cold front arrives.

Wave Two: Rain

12Z GFS Showing Heavy Rain Moving In Thursday. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing Heavy Rain Moving In Thursday. Image Credit: Weatherbell

Eventually, the cold air will be swept out of the way as SE winds pick up. A cold front will be approaching and ahead of it will be a line of heavy showers with some embedded thunder possible. A general inch to two inches of rain is likely which could lead to minor drainage/urban flooding. Despite that, no major issues are expected as we hardly have any snowpack to melt away.

Wave Two: Wind

12Z GFS Showing High Winds Once Again Lurking Above The Surface. Image Credit: Accuweather
12Z GFS Showing High Winds Once Again Lurking Above The Surface. Image Credit: Accuweather

As is usually the case with these storms, a band of strong winds will cross the area around the time of the heavy rain. The heavy rain will help mix some of those winds to the surface which could lead to scattered power outages. Notice the lack of bright pinks and purples in this map where we had them covering the entire region last week. Winds this week will be slightly weaker with 40-50 mph gusts most likely (last week we had 50-60 mph winds).

Wave Three: Light Mountain Rain/Snow

12Z GFS Showing Light Rain And Snow Moving Back In Friday Morning As Cold Air Pours Back In. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing Light Rain And Snow Moving Back In Friday Morning As Cold Air Pours Back In. Image Credit: Weatherbell

As cold air pours back into the area Thursday evening, an upper disturbance will pass overhead which will cause another batch of precip to move through. This will be most widespread in the mountains but everyone has a shot at a quick coating-2″ of snow as westerly winds bring the cold back in. This should move in late in the evening Thursday and should be out of here by dawn Friday.

More updates in the coming days.

-Jack

Cold And Clear Today

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Hello everyone!

Today will feature mainly sunny skies along with cooler temps as high pressure moves in. Look for a light to moderate westerly/northwesterly breeze this morning but that will be settling down towards the afternoon as the high gets closer. Look for highs in the low to mid 20’s north and upper 20’s to low 30’s south.

-Jack

Rain Expected This Week As Another Strong Storm Lifts West

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Hello everyone!

Yet another storm has decided to cut west this week as our pattern continues to disappoint for skiers and other winter enthusiasts. This storm will be a lot like our last storm and will, as with most inland runners, feature front end frozen precip, heavy rain, and high winds. Precip moves in Wednesday afternoon and moves out Thursday evening.

12Z GFS Showing The Setup With The First Wave Wednesday Evening. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing The Setup With The First Wave Wednesday Evening. Image Credit: Weatherbell

The storm will, as these storms usually do, take place in two stages. The first stage will be Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening with light snow changing to ice and rain. During this time, the warm front will be lifting north and cold high pressure will still rule with some weak Cold Air Damming in the mix as well. Accumulations will be on the light side, probably remaining under 3″ of snow though exact amounts are still yet to be determined.

12Z GFS Showing The Setup For The Second Phase Of The Event Thursday Afternoon/Evening
12Z GFS Showing The Setup For The Second Wave Thursday Afternoon/Evening. Image Credit: Weatherbell

A lull will occur Thursday morning as the warm front passes north. Winds will become strong out of the S/SE which will blast out any of the last cold pockets. Heavy rain associated with the cold front will approach and move into the area Thursday afternoon/evening and will bring with it the standard high wind/heavy rain threats with localized flooding and power outages possible. Exact winds are still to be determined but will likely be just a click below those of our last event which would indicate gusts to or around 50 mph along the coast with lighter winds inland.

Colder air moves in for next weekend along with another shot of snow currently centered around Saturday.

-Jack

Another Mild Day Today

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Hello everyone!

Today will feature increasing clouds as another cold front moves in from the west. Out ahead of it, we get one more day of mild temps with highs up north getting into the upper 30’s to low 40’s and temps in the south getting into the low 50’s for many. The cold front passes without much incident this evening though a few mountain flurries are possible.

-Jack

Next Week Looks Stormy, Details Remain Uncertain

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Hello everyone!

Our storm this upcoming week is still on track but just because we’re getting closer to the event doesn’t mean we’re all that much closer to deciphering what will happen. The trend in guidance over the past 24 hours has been towards a warmer solution with brief snow quickly going over to rain. While this remains very much a viable solution, I’m not ready to bite just yet. I want to wait for a few more rounds of guidance with better sampling of the disturbances that will eventually form the storm before I pull the trigger on a rainy solution. Due to that, my thoughts haven’t changed much. A cold front will move through tomorrow night and colder air will follow for Monday. Low pressure will then move NE from the Gulf of Mexico. Its exact track will determine what falls from the sky. We should have a better idea Monday afternoon as the disturbances that will form the storm begin to join together over Texas.

12Z GEFS Showing Uncertainty In The Forecast For Next Week. Image Credit; Weatherbell
12Z GEFS Showing Uncertainty In The Forecast For Next Week. Image Credit; Weatherbell

Here are the GFS ensembles for the storm. While there is still a large spread in ideas as to where the storm will track, guidance is converging on an inland track. Notice the lack of a large high to the NE to feed cold air into the region. Our cold high from Monday has already been swept off to the Azores which leaves warm air free to flood northward. While I’m still not completely convinced, this is the solution I’m leaning towards based on the pattern and what I’m seeing in terms of guidance.

Following this storm, colder air moves in for the weekend and we have another shot at snow around that time as well.

-Jack

Showery And Warmer Today

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Hello everyone!

Today will feature mainly cloudy skies along with off and on rain and snow showers as a warm front moves through. Look for another inch or so of accumulation up north with just light rain showers in the south before things dry up this afternoon. Highs will range from the low to mid 30’s north to the mid to upper 40’s south. Some sun is possible this afternoon especially SW.

-Jack

A Progressively More Active Week

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Hello everyone!

Our pattern slowly becomes more active over the coming week beginning with light snow tonight and ending with what could be a large storm next week. We still have three storm threats but I don’t think Northern New England gets much of anything with the Monday storm threat I talked about a couple of nights ago. However, that storm still plays an important part in the lead up to what has the potential to be a large storm next week. For now, let’s look at tonight and the storm expected to drop light snow in the next 12-18 hours.

Radar/Surface Obs Composite From ~5:00PM This Evening. Image Credit: COD
Radar/Surface Obs Composite From ~5:00PM This Evening. Image Credit: COD

Light precip is falling over NY currently and this will move east into our area tonight. The low pressure responsible is tracking to the north and thus is dragging warm air up into the region on southerly winds. This will be enough to result in a wet snow for the mountains and foothills and wet snow mixing with rain along the coast. Snow will fall predominantly tonight into tomorrow morning and will be largely in the form of snow showers with on and off precip. Little accumulation is expected and my original thinking of 2-4″ for the mountains, 1-3″ for the foothills, and a coating-2″ for the coast/coastal plain looks good. Warmer air will flood into the region behind this storm on westerly winds setting up spring like temps this weekend. Highs tomorrow will be in the 30’s and 40’s following precip clearing out in the morning. Highs Sunday will get close to 50 in the south with 40’s for most.

18Z NAM Showing The Setup Monday As Cold Air Builds. Image Credit: Accuweather
18Z NAM Showing The Setup Monday As Cold Air Builds. Image Credit: Accuweather

A cold front sweeps the warmth offshore Sunday night and low pressure develops along the front Monday. This will remain largely to our south though more clouds are likely for all with a flurry possible in the south. The big impact though will be the cold building in with a fresh Canadian airmass sweeping SE. By the time Tuesday rolls around, we will have a stalwart 1030mb+ high that won’t be in a hurry to move. This sets up our midweek storm threat.

12Z GFS Showing The Complex Storm Threat Midweek. Image Credit: Accuweather
12Z GFS Showing The Complex Storm Threat Midweek. Image Credit: Accuweather

By the time next week arrives, a large and fairly deep trough will be carved out across the east with a ridge in the west. Tons of disturbances will be zooming around the east and the exact track of the storm(s) will depend on the exact strength/placement of each and every one of the disturbances I circled in blue (along with others not visible in this image). This is why this forecast is so darn complicated. Despite that, I think we can begin to make some sort of sense out of at least the basics. It is far too early to talk precip type or exact timing but I think the storm works in two parts. The first arrives at some point Tuesday or Wednesday and remains moderate or weak in strength. It looks to deliver moderate to light precip of some sort depending on the track. Remember, we have fresh cold in place so my inclination would be to lean towards less, colder precip as the low slides south. The second part of the storm arrives later in the week, Wednesday into Thursday and is much stronger.  It could deliver much more precip depending on the track. Of what nature the precip is and exactly when it comes and goes is anyone’s guess at this point but the takeaway is that it could be much stronger.

All in all, a more active pattern is shaping up for our area heading into next week. While the exact details are TBD, it does look like we have a good chance at seeing significant precip. Could it be mainly rain? Sure. Could it go out to sea? Possibly. Could it deliver significant frozen precip? Absolutely it could. Stay informed with the latest forecasts through your favorite source (NWS, local media, people like me) and remember that this is still very far away. Don’t panic, stay informed.

-Jack

Increasing Clouds Today

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Hello everyone!

Today will feature increasing clouds as our first weak storm approaches from the west. Look for chilly temps near or just above zero this morning warming into the low to mid 20’s north and upper 20’s to low 30’s south. While clouds will be increasing, snow should hold off until later this evening.

-Jack

Turning Cooler Today

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Hello everyone!

Today will feature the passage of a weak cold front which will mean we run the risk of some flurries falling out of cloudy skies this morning. NW Winds will be noticeable but want be too bad. Highs will range from the low 20’s north to the low 30’s south. Cloudy skies this morning will give way to clearing by the afternoon.

-Jack

A Quiet Few Days Leads Up To An Active Week Next Week

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Hello everyone!

As yesterday’s storm is now long gone, we are now settling into a quieter pattern in the immediate future. I’ll look at our quiet pattern with a few chances for precip and then I’ll outline the beginning of what could be an active pattern starting next week. Let’s start with these next few days.

Zonal Flow: Late Week Into The Weekend

12Z GFS Showing The Pattern Early Week. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing The Pattern Early Week. Image Credit: Accuweather

The rest of this week and into the weekend will feature flat, zonal flow aloft. You can see this in the image at left which shows westerly winds and lines of equal height (isopleths) more or less going from west to east. This type of pattern supports temps near or slightly above average and also keeps any storms weak. Two weak storms look to impact the area in the next five days, one Friday into Saturday and the other Sunday into Monday. They will be weak and will feature a mix of rain and snow depending on surface temps. Tomorrow will be a lot like today except maybe a tad cooler. Friday will feature increasing clouds and light snow in the afternoon while Saturday sees light rain/snow showers moving out. Sunday will see more clouds while snow arrives Sunday night and lasts into Monday morning. Amounts look light for both events. Sunday’s storm will set up a far different pattern aloft by early next week.

Meridional Flow: Next Week

12Z GFS Showing A Far Different Pattern Aloft Early Week. Image Credit: Weatherbell
12Z GFS Showing A Far Different Pattern Aloft Early Week. Image Credit: Accuweather

This is the same map as the one shown above but valid early next week as opposed to late this week. Notice the change in the winds and isopleths as well as the strength of the disturbances. This is the type of pattern needed for storms. Notice all the disturbances zooming around the eastern US. I’ve highlighted the strongest ones in blue. To actually get a big snowstorm, we need each of those disturbances in just the right place at just the right time. This pattern looks to continue trough next week with multiple threats for storms as different sets of disturbances attempt to consolidate into a larger storm. Is it possible that any one of those sets of disturbances does consolidate into a large storm that brings us significant snow? Absolutely. Is it likely? At this point, the odds are stacked against it as they almost always are this far out. The stage is set for a snowstorm but we need all the actors in the right place at the right time doing the right things for a good show.

More updates as we get closer to these events.

-Jack