As of sunrise, most of the area is experiencing calm (albeit quite chilly) weather and partly to mostly sunny skies. This quiet weather won’t last as a very strong cold front approaches from the west. This front is more akin to a powerful January Arctic front than something you’d find in springtime.
Clouds ahead of the warm front associated with this system are moving through the region currently. There’s a break of relatively clear skies over eastern NY and western MA between the warm front and the cold front. I’m not exactly sure to what extent that clear slot will fill in over the next few hours, but if it doesn’t, sunny breaks will continue through the early afternoon. Ahead of the front, you’ll notice increasingly breezy southerly winds. Gusts will top out around 40 mph along the coast and 30-35 mph farther inland (higher terrain exceptions notwithstanding).
By 3 PM, the cold front will be on the doorstep of the CT Valley. A line of strong showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary, especially if we’re able to get some more sunshine this morning. These storms will be producing heavy rain, small hail, graupel, and gusty winds as they move into western NH. Behind the initial line of storms, very cold air will support a quick changeover to snow especially for the higher terrain. Significant accumulations are not expected in most of NH.
The line of storms will be approaching Maine around 4-5 PM. As they move east into a cooler and drier airmass, the stronger thunderstorms will begin falling apart. As a result, while small hail, graupel, and perhaps a rumble of thunder are possible in Maine, the threat for strong (damaging) winds associated with the line of storms itself is much lower. Once you head north of Route 2 in Maine, this event becomes a mostly snow situation in the presence of deeper cool/dry air. Light rain/snow mix at the onset will quickly turn over to bursts of heavy snow as the line moves through. Expect low visibility and brief accumulations of a coating-2″ in these squalls as they move through.
Precipitation tapers off for all but the mountains (upslope) after 7-8 PM tonight as gusty NW winds carry much cooler air into the region.
Expect brighter skies but much chillier temps tomorrow.