Update #1

3:45 pm EST Thursday 2/23/12: Snow will overspread the region Friday Morning and continue throughout the day peaking at around noon. Temps will hover near freezing or a little bit above throughout the day. Temps will sharply rise in the 500 hour when a warm front comes through. This will cause a change to rain up until maybe 5 miles from the immediate coast. This changeover will persist for an hour or 2 and then cooling takes place after dark returning snow for all. Snow will taper off and end at around 2-3am north to south. Clear skies return with blustery conditions saturday.

Stormy friday

Friday will feature essentually a very stormy day. Rain at the immediate coast and snow in the mountains with mix in between.

Going in depth a little more… A low will intensify as it moves NE out of the Ohio valley and into New England Friday morning. Snow will overspread the region Thursday night and will stay snow across the entire forecast area untill ~8am. This is where the forecast becomes very tricky. The coast south of Portland will experiance the changeover first with rain overrunning that area and remaining locked in place as warm air pushes north. Meanwhile a secondary low undergoes cyclogenesis over Cape Cod. Depending on how strong this low gets, the warm air could stall or even retreat slightly.

         There are 3 dominant senarios for the secondary low development: 1) 2nd low deepens more rapidly and pulls in significant cold air therefore resulting in more significant coastal snows. 2) 2nd low fizzles and gets absorbed by intensifying main low therefore pulling in little to no cold air resulting in minimal coastal snows and hevier upslope snow. 3) 2nd low deepens at a marginal rate resulting in a moderate amount of cold air being pulled in and causing the warm air to be bottled up resulting in a sharp coastal front with a steep temperature difference. The exact placement of this front will likely determine the rain snow line if senerio 3 plays out

Stay tuned!


Quiet 7-day outlook

No need to go into detail for any of the days in the 7-day outlook. The forecast simply is sun with a few clouds highs ranging from 29-37 in southern ME and take off a few degrees and you get the temps for the north and mountains. Add a few degrees to get southern NE temps. Mid atlantic: rainy for Superbowl sunday with temps generally in the 40s through the 7-day.

Stay tuned!


Snow today as long range forecast becomes more unclear

Snow will be falling today in NE as a warm front pushes north. The warm front will bring warm air and this will cause a mix at the coast and some light rain tomorrow. After that the forecast really becomes extremely unclear. Models like the idea of  a coastal storm developing Friday or Saturday with an extremely large trough digging down through the eastern third of the country. Models have been backing off on that solution however there is a possibility to see a storm develop Monday.

Stay Tuned!


Reliably hype-free weather info for Western Maine and New Hampshire from amateur forecaster Jack Sillin

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