Tag Archives: coast

Full update on winter storms

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We are now on a wild roller coaster ride when it comes to the weather in the North East. A low pressure system is moving out of the Great Lakes and will be transferring its energy to a secondary low off the NJ coast.

noreaster 12

 

Graphic overview of storms.

As you can see, there are many factors playing into the forecast. The coastal front, the new low, cold air damming. Cold air damming is when  the heavy cold air stops the advance of Warm air. Where exactly the cold air dam sets up will play a big part in the type of precipitation. The coastal front will play an equally important part on determining precipitation types. As shown, the east winds off the warm water will bring in warmer air. This will turn snow/sleet/freezing rain into all rain. Expect this to move inland Monday-tuesday.

After the coastal front moves inland, Wednesday will already be here as will another storm. This new storm will be MUCH stronger.

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This graphic depicts the setup Monday-Wednesday. The coastal front from tonight will move way inland turning everyone except the ski resorts over to plain rain. The wednesday low will move swiftly through the Gulf of Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes. On the backside of this system the cold air will make a comeback turning everyone back over to snow Wednesday evening-night. Accumulations should be light.

After we get the Monday and Wednesday storms out of the way, there will be yet another low Friday. This is a little too far out to accurately forecast so I will detail that in a later Post coming Wednesday-Thursday.

-Jack

Stormy friday

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Friday will feature essentually a very stormy day. Rain at the immediate coast and snow in the mountains with mix in between.

Going in depth a little more… A low will intensify as it moves NE out of the Ohio valley and into New England Friday morning. Snow will overspread the region Thursday night and will stay snow across the entire forecast area untill ~8am. This is where the forecast becomes very tricky. The coast south of Portland will experiance the changeover first with rain overrunning that area and remaining locked in place as warm air pushes north. Meanwhile a secondary low undergoes cyclogenesis over Cape Cod. Depending on how strong this low gets, the warm air could stall or even retreat slightly.

         There are 3 dominant senarios for the secondary low development: 1) 2nd low deepens more rapidly and pulls in significant cold air therefore resulting in more significant coastal snows. 2) 2nd low fizzles and gets absorbed by intensifying main low therefore pulling in little to no cold air resulting in minimal coastal snows and hevier upslope snow. 3) 2nd low deepens at a marginal rate resulting in a moderate amount of cold air being pulled in and causing the warm air to be bottled up resulting in a sharp coastal front with a steep temperature difference. The exact placement of this front will likely determine the rain snow line if senerio 3 plays out

Stay tuned!

-JAck

Rain on friday for the coast

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Models have been tracking a little bit farther west and that means rain for the coast as well as some freezing rain and snow at the very beginning. Snow/mix/freezing rain will all change over to rain around daybreak. Inland will see snoe changing to mix/freezing rain around midday and Te mountains will see mostly snow with occaionial sleet mixing in. Amounts will go as following: Southern coast as well as the immediate middcoast and southern interior-1-2″ inland and midcoast and foothills-3-6″ Mountains and North 4-8″.

Stay tuned!

-JAck

Snowy stretch ahead for New England while Mid Atlantic Enjoys Mainly Quiet Weather

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Overview: Strong low pressure will move swiftly out the mouth of the St Laurence and has already pushed a cold front through overnight. Strong winds will develop behind the front bringing in cold air. Winds will gust to close to 50 mph out of the W or possibly WNW or NW. Tomorrow will feature clouding skies and a lot less wind. Thursday night will bring a clipper system to the area developing a coastal low in the southern Gulf Of Maine. These two systems will bring close to 6″ to the midcoast and Central Maine with 4-5″ along the coastal plain ( the waterline to around 10 miles inland) with 2-4″ in the mountains 3-5 is likely in the far north. Saturday will feature a second clipper system and coastal low so the results will be very similar to that of the Thursday night storm. Monday will feature yet another storm and since the models diverge and the storm is in the long range forecast details are uncertain but we do think that as of right now it looks like a wintry mix along the coast with more snow inland.

 

Details: Winds will pick up as the day goes on peaking at around 9am with 50+ mph gusts and sustained winds peaking at around the same time at 25-30 mph. This wind will bring in colder air and will set the stage for two systems which will affect the area Thursday and Saturday nights.These two systems will bring close to 6″ to the midcoast and Central Maine with 4-5″ along the coastal plain ( the waterline to around 10 miles inland) with 2-4″ in the mountains 3-5 is likely in the far north. After that we will find a quiet and cold end to the weekend. Monday however will be different with temps at the coast in the mid 30s so at this point it looks like a tricky forecast and a mix at the coast.

Mid Atlantic: Windy today but winds will calm as the day goes on and become cooler. This cooler air will set the stage for some flurries for Thursday night although the southern sections will not get too much precipitation in the next week with Thursday and Saturday nights being the only two times precipitation in the southern sections. The northern sections however will get some more prolonged snow showers Thursday and Saturday nights which could leave a coating to an inch on grassy surfaces.

Stay tuned!

-Jack

Little snow for coast while inland and mountains get pummeled

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Warmer air has come into place this morning and as a result, snow should be limited at the coast while inland areas could receive up to 1′. Coastal areas should expect about anywhere from nothing to about 7-9″ all the way up the coastline. Travel will become tricky at around 8:00 or so when enough snow has fallen that travel should become a little tricky. It is not however the morning commute I am worried about, in the afternoon when a coat of snow, ice, slush, and water has built up I am worried about especially inland areas but the coast too will get slick and dangerous.

Stay tuned and stay safe!!

-Jack

Precipitation on Thursday type is still unclear

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We are tracking some temperature swings with highs tomorrow in the lower 40s in the south and coast while highs in the upper 30s inland, in the north, and in the mountains. On Wednesday, high temps will reach freezing in most spots with below freezing temps north of Portland-Manchester-Syracuse-Buffalo. Thursday  will feature rain anywhere along the 95 corridor. Mix is expected within about a 30 mile radius north and west of 95. snow can be expected north and west of the mix/snow line. The mid atlantic will experience an all rain event.

Stay tuned as we fine tune the forecast!!

-Jack

Todays outlook 1-2-12

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New England

Today will feature partly cloudy skies with highs in the 40s in most of Maine with the exception of the north and the mountains. In the North and Mountains, temps will peak out a little above freezing. In southern NE, 50s can be expected. Gusty NW winds

Mid Atlantic

50s in VA. 40s to around 50 elsewhere. Partly cloudy. Gusty NW winds.

Stay tuned!

-JAck

 

7 day forecast

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Here is a 7 day forecast:

New England:
Today: Mild. Clear skies with only a few scattered clouds. High 45.
Tomorrow: Mild. Am clouds Pm sun. High 40
Tuesday: Much colder with highs around 20. Colder in the North and the Mountains. Sunny area wide.
Wednesday: Even colder. Highs in the teens at the coast and around 10 inland. Sunny across the region.
Thursday: Sunny. Temps rebounding into the mid 20s. Sunny.
Friday: Warmer. Highs around freezing. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday Same temps as Friday. Mostly cloudy as well.

Mid Atlantic:
Today: Mild. Around 70 for a high northward to DC-Baltimore. 50s elsewhere except for a few upper 40s in the far NW. Clear
Tomorrow: Upper 40s N to DC-Baltimore. upper 30s elsewhere. Cloudy in the West a few breaks in the clouds east. Chance for a light snow shower in the far NW.
Tuesday:
Colder. Highs in the mid 30s N to DC-Baltimore. 20s elsewhere. Snow showers for the North with snow showers wrapping south at the coast south to Delaware.
Wednesday:
30s N to southern New Jersey upper 20s elsewhere. Partly cloudy.
Thursday: Upper 40s for VA beach and Delaware. 30s and lower 40s elsewhere. Partly cloudy in the North. Clear in the south.
Friday:
Lower 50s N to DC-Baltimore. lower 40s for New Jersey and upper 30s elsewhere. Clear.
Saturday:
60s for Virginia. upper 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. Cloudy in the far North and Partly cloudy elsewhere.

Stay tuned!

-Jack

Todays weather 12-29-11

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Today will feature a clear sky with cold temperatures. Temperatures will start off in the low teens for the coast and the lower single digits inland. Wind chills will be around 9 at the coast and well below zero inland.

Winds will die down as the day goes on.

Stay tuned!

-Jack