A powerful winter storm is preparing to slam the region with heavy snow as well as some wind though the snow will really grab headlines. 8-12″ are expected in Cumberland and York Counties in ME and most of SW NH as well. 3-6″ in northern NH and in ME North to Augusta. 1-3″ in northern ME.
A powerful low will extend a warm front ahead of its move SE under a powerful high. This will bring a good steady snow and efficient accumulation. see other post for more in-depth analysis.
Stay tuned!
-JAck
Thursday will likely be our last chance at a very significant snowfall. A low will be moving out of the Great Lakes and will be nudged south by a fairly strong high in southern Quebec. This is a very cold high spilling cold air over the region so precipitation type will not be an issue with the exception of maybe Kittery where the warm air will be located. Confidence is still low so stay tuned for more updates.
-JAck
7:45 pm EST Thursday 2-23-12:
New forecasts coming in now and still trending cooler. This means that the secondary low will develop more quickly and reach a greater intensity before being driven off by approaching high pressure that will be building in for Saturday.
Low will approach the area tonight and snow will start at around 5:30am. Little accumulation before dawn but this thin layer will set the stage for more efficient accumulations with heavy snows later. Heavy snow will come with the 2nd low forming roughly 50 miles NE of Boston. This new low will start out fairly strong and will continue to deepen though cyclogenisis is not expected at this point. The new low will start to pull in sufficient cold air starting around 11:00. Warm air advection (which is warm air interacting with cold air usually overtaking it and produces precipitation) will be halted or significantly slowed by this point due to cool air being wrapped in by this point by the secondary low.
East winds brought on by the secondary low passing south of us will draw in warmer air along the coast and we will see a change to sleet possibly mixing with rain.
Snow amounts: Southern York County: 1-3″
Coast north of Portland to 20 miles inland: 3-5″
Inland and foothills: 4-6″
Mountains: 6-10″
Stay tuned!
-Jack
3:45 pm EST Thursday 2/23/12: Snow will overspread the region Friday Morning and continue throughout the day peaking at around noon. Temps will hover near freezing or a little bit above throughout the day. Temps will sharply rise in the 500 hour when a warm front comes through. This will cause a change to rain up until maybe 5 miles from the immediate coast. This changeover will persist for an hour or 2 and then cooling takes place after dark returning snow for all. Snow will taper off and end at around 2-3am north to south. Clear skies return with blustery conditions saturday.
Friday will feature essentually a very stormy day. Rain at the immediate coast and snow in the mountains with mix in between.
Going in depth a little more… A low will intensify as it moves NE out of the Ohio valley and into New England Friday morning. Snow will overspread the region Thursday night and will stay snow across the entire forecast area untill ~8am. This is where the forecast becomes very tricky. The coast south of Portland will experiance the changeover first with rain overrunning that area and remaining locked in place as warm air pushes north. Meanwhile a secondary low undergoes cyclogenesis over Cape Cod. Depending on how strong this low gets, the warm air could stall or even retreat slightly.
There are 3 dominant senarios for the secondary low development: 1) 2nd low deepens more rapidly and pulls in significant cold air therefore resulting in more significant coastal snows. 2) 2nd low fizzles and gets absorbed by intensifying main low therefore pulling in little to no cold air resulting in minimal coastal snows and hevier upslope snow. 3) 2nd low deepens at a marginal rate resulting in a moderate amount of cold air being pulled in and causing the warm air to be bottled up resulting in a sharp coastal front with a steep temperature difference. The exact placement of this front will likely determine the rain snow line if senerio 3 plays out
Stay tuned!
-JAck
Snow will be falling today in NE as a warm front pushes north. The warm front will bring warm air and this will cause a mix at the coast and some light rain tomorrow. After that the forecast really becomes extremely unclear. Models like the idea of a coastal storm developing Friday or Saturday with an extremely large trough digging down through the eastern third of the country. Models have been backing off on that solution however there is a possibility to see a storm develop Monday.
Stay Tuned!
-Jack
Now we watch our next storm that is currently in Texas will move up the coast today and tomorrow. It will reach the Mid Atlantic states Thursday into Thursday night. NE will get the brunt of this storm friday with a strong coastal front like many storms this season. This will set up a definite rain/snow line and we will see where this goes.
Stay tuned!
Jack
Today a cold front moved through the area bringing in cooler temps for the week topping out wednesday in the mid to lower 30s for southern NH and southern ME 30s south into CT and 40s South to Philadelphia. 50s into VA and MD. Thursday will be similar and partly cloudy like wednesday. Friday will feature precipitation in northern NE but is a little early to go into details.
Stay tuned!
-Jack
Saturday across the Mid Atlantic will feature snow north of a Baltimore-Philidelphia- NYC line clearing for Sunday morning with a cooler Sunday for everyone. Our next storm will track throught the Mid Atlantic Sunday night trowing clouds across the Mid Atlantic Sunday ahead of the storm. Monday will feature rain for most of NE with some snow at the onset of precipitation as cold air is firmly in place.
Snow will start to move in tonight and will be over the area by dawn and moving northward through the day. North of Augusta ME will see no accumulations while anywhere north of Portland and south of Agusta will see around 1-3″ and York County will see 3-4″. Seacoast NH will see 3-5″ and Boston North will see 3-5 due to some sleet possibly mixing in there.6-8″ in northern CT including Hartford and surrounding areas.
Sunday will feature some clouds for the Mid Atlantic out ahead of the next storm that will bring rain for the East Coast starting sunday night and then into monday and monday night lingering into tuesday for northern NE
Stay Tuned!
-Jack
Warmer air has come into place this morning and as a result, snow should be limited at the coast while inland areas could receive up to 1′. Coastal areas should expect about anywhere from nothing to about 7-9″ all the way up the coastline. Travel will become tricky at around 8:00 or so when enough snow has fallen that travel should become a little tricky. It is not however the morning commute I am worried about, in the afternoon when a coat of snow, ice, slush, and water has built up I am worried about especially inland areas but the coast too will get slick and dangerous.
Stay tuned and stay safe!!
-Jack
Forecasterjack 