Hello everyone!

My apologies for the quasi-unintended Forecasterjack hiatus over the past few days, during which time I wandered the Great Plains in search of Bison and big thunderstorms before getting settled into my home for the summer in Montana. I figured cell coverage would be better than it was, and sometimes the timing didn’t quite work out for me to post at a moment that would’ve been useful. Anyways, I’m back now so let’s take a look at the forecast.

A weakening line of thunderstorms is entering the region from the west this morning and will make for a wet commute across most of NH. I don’t expect much of this to make it into Maine but a few showers are possible in western parts of the state midmorning.

More clouds and showers will move into the area from the southwest later in the morning after developing in an unstable airmass over NY. With so much cloud cover holding temps in the mid 60s over central NH and low 70s elsewhere, there won’t be much instability for storms to develop this afternoon as a cold front approaches. So while weakening storms moving in from NY might be able to produce a rumble or two of thunder, garden variety showers will be the rule of the day today.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature another day of thoroughly unpleasant weather as temps remain high and humidity only gets higher. Highs will once again range from the upper 80s in the far north and along the immediate shorelines to the low 90s inland and dew points will surge into the dreaded lower 70s. This means heat index values in the low to mid 90s across the area. If you have to be outside and not submerged in water today, be sure to drink lots of water and stick to the shade if possible.

This airmass will prove fertile for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though the mechanism by which the atmosphere will initially be perturbed to set off storm development is a little unclear. One option is a cold front entering the region from the north around sunset, while another seems to be a subtle convergence boundary draped over southern NH. Thus the highest chances for thunderstorms this afternoon will be up in the mountains and down near the MA border, though I can’t rule out a brief shower anywhere. Storms today will mostly pose a heavy rain threat given the absurd amount of moisture we have around. Lightning and gusty winds are also possible.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature the peak of our current heatwave as west-southwesterly winds continue to push hot air into the area under mostly sunny skies. Look for high temps ranging from around 90 near to coast to the mid or perhaps even upper 90s inland. With large-scale westerly breezes, the cooling effect of the ocean will be limited to the tips of the peninsulas and even there won’t be all that strong. Humidity will remain uncomfortably high though not extremely oppressive as the same atmospheric processes that allow for the extreme heat will also keep a lid on the humidity. Without any disturbances in sight, I don’t expect any shower or thunderstorm activity this afternoon despite the hot and humid airmass.

Tomorrow will still be hot but clouds will increase ahead of an approaching cold front and thus we won’t be able to push quite as far into the 90s. Real liberation from the heat appears to be in store later in the week.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature hot temperatures and modestly high humidity as we have the misfortune of sourcing our airmass from the Gulf of Mexico. Temps will rise into the mid to high 80s in the north and along the coast east of I-95/I-295 while the interior makes a solid run into the low 90s. Large-scale southwesterly breezes will hamper the ability of the sea breeze to make meaningful progress cooling down anyone not on the Midcoast peninsulas.

Skies will start out mostly sunny this morning before another advancing warm front helps kick up some cumulus during the midday hours. A few of these cumulus clouds will grow tall enough to produce showers and maybe even a thunderstorm or two starting around 12-2 PM. The best odds of a shower or two seem to be in the mountains over towards the coast near Brunswick. Clouds and any showers will fade as the sun slips towards the horizon this evening.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening as an approaching disturbance aloft stirs up our extremely warm and humid airmass.

This morning, sunshine will dominate the area ahead of the cold front we’ll be tracking this afternoon. Daytime heating from the strong early-June sun will push temps into the mid to upper 80s for most with some 70s along the Midcoast and some low 90s in the usual SW NH warm spots. With dew points rising into the mid 60s, most spots will feel like temps are in the low to mid 90s.

This warm and humid air, aside from being miserably uncomfortable, is volatile fuel for thunderstorms. An approaching disturbance aloft will provide the necessary nudge for storm development over the mountains in two rounds this afternoon. The first round will be more scattered and will kick off around 1-3 PM in the mountains before moving towards the coast around 3-5 PM. These cells will likely be discrete which means they could produce hail and maybe even a brief tornado in addition to lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.

Another round of storms will develop early in the evening over the mountains before heading towards the coast around sunset. This round will most likely be organized into a line of storms better at producing damaging winds than hail.

Since the disturbance responsible for today’s storms will be dropping in from Canada, the best shot at thunderstorms will be north of a Portland-Lebanon NH line. Points south and west just won’t get enough of a prod to jumpstart storm development despite the abundance of thunderstorm fuel.

Not everyone will see storms today and of those that do, not everyone will see damaging wind gusts, but the atmosphere is set up to be supportive of winds strong enough to knock down trees and powerlines in the stronger cells. Make sure you keep an eye to the sky if you’re out and about this afternoon and have a way of receiving warning information if one is issued for your area.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today’s forecast headline comprises some of the saddest words in the English language but here we are. A weak “cold” front attempted to cross the region last night but only got about as far as the foothills. The remains of this boundary have been supporting lots of clouds and a few widely scattered showers this morning. Over the next few hours, expect shower coverage to continue waning while clouds stick around especially closer to the coast. The first spots to see clearing will be along the Canadian border where the sun should be peeking out shortly.

This afternoon, the general pattern of cloudy skies near the coast and sunnier skies inland will continue as another batch of showers pops up in the warm and increasingly muggy airmass. The best odds for a couple showers will be in the foothills and along the coastal plain, with special emphasis on southern NH where showers may be able to grow tall enough to produce lightning and gusty winds. Overall though most of us will stay mostly dry and those that do see rain won’t deal with it for very long.

High temps today will range from the upper 60s along the Midcoast to the mid 70s up north to the low 80s in the usual interior warm spots.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature increased humidity and a corresponding increase in the odds of afternoon shower/thunderstorm activity. Look for patchy sunshine this morning, especially along the coast, before clouds thicken up this afternoon. Southerly breezes will push more humid air into the area and dew points will climb above the dreaded 60F mark by this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop to our west along a weak and weakening frontal boundary. These storms will wander into western NH late in the afternoon with gusty winds and heavy rain possible. Over in Maine, a few showers are expected near sunset but there won’t be enough instability nor enough forcing to support widespread heavy thunderstorms. High temps will range from the upper 60s along the Midcoast peninsulas to the low 80s in interior areas.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature generally quiet early-summer weather as high pressure passes by to our east. Skies are mostly sunny this morning and will remain that way through the early afternoon before clouds start filtering in ahead of our next storm system arriving from the southwest. High temps today will be right about in line with what’s typical for this time of year, ranging from the upper 60s right along the shoreline and up in the mountains to the low 80s in the usual southwestern warm spots. There does not look to be much in the way of precipitation today but I can’t rule out a brief afternoon/evening shower up in the mountains.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

I’ll be away from my computer for the weekend so this update will cover the weather expected today through Tuesday.

An unfortunately-timed storm system will bring cool and inclement weather to the area for much of the upcoming weekend. The storm will arrive from the southwest this afternoon with clouds spilling into the region from the southwest and rain beginning to fall over southern NH in the late afternoon. Temps today will be rather cool, ranging from the upper 40s up in the mountains to the upper 50s along the coastal plain.

Rain continues overnight into tomorrow morning south of a line extending roughly from Lebanon NH to Fryeburg and Belfast ME. Showers will become much more widely scattered tomorrow afternoon which would be a good opportunity for outdoor activities, though temps will remain on the chillier side ranging from the mid 40s in southern/central NH to around 60 northeast of Augusta where a few breaks of sun are possible. Mostly though, it will remain cloudy especially in the south.

Another storm will develop to our south on Sunday bringing periods of rain starting midday and continuing through the afternoon and evening. Cold northeast winds and thick cloud cover will keep temps very chilly for this time of year, ranging from the low 40s in the White Mountains (where snow could fall above 4,000 feet!) to the low 50s near Belfast.

Steady, heavy rain will likely continue into Monday though it is still not clear how quickly the storm will depart. The best shot at a few dry hours will be in western NH. Regardless of how much rain falls on Monday, thick overcast will linger and so too will chilly temps in the upper 40s north and mid 50s south.

Temps will finally rebound into the 70s on Tuesday with morning sunshine most likely giving way to another round of showers in the afternoon, especially in the mountains.

I know this is not what folks are looking to hear for Memorial Day weekend but it’ll be good to top up our water supplies heading into the summer.

I’ll be back with another regularly-scheduled update Wednesday morning.

-Jack

Hello everyone!

Today will feature our first real opportunity for thunderstorms of the season as a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of this boundary, southwesterly breezes will push temps into the mid-upper 80s for most of the area with some 90s expected in the usual southwestern warm spots.

Showers and thunderstorms will pop up over the mountains starting around noon before moving gradually east through the afternoon/evening. These look to be on the more exciting end of the spectrum of storms we get around here, thanks to robust instability provided by the hot, humid air and cooler temps aloft. While not everyone will get a storm this afternoon, those that do can expect plenty of lightning, very heavy rain, gusty winds, and the possibility of either small hail or a brief tornado. This is nothing too out of the ordinary even for New England, but it’s been a while since we’ve been able to enjoy a good thunderstorm so remember to keep an eye to the sky this afternoon.

Storms will exit the coastline around 5-7 PM with real dry air finally showing up overnight.

-Jack