Today will feature the slow departure of yesterday’s storm which means cool temps and unsettled weather for most of the region. One last heavy snow band is still pivoting East of Augusta, but even that should taper off over the next few hours. The main weather event today will be the development of low-topped squalls along a boundary pivoting around the western side of the low. These will initially pop up along a line from Waterville to Rangely in the late morning hours and will drop heavy snow as they begin to move southeast. As the squalls move towards the coast, they’ll run into warmer air near the surface. That means they’ll transition from snow squalls to rain squalls. It also means that they’ll have access to more energy. As a result, expect some rumbles of thunder and a precipitation type mix including graupel and small hail in addition to rain.
Behind these squalls, expect winds to rapidly pick up from the northwest. Most spots will likely see gusts top out around 40-45 mph. That’s definitely enough to cause continued power outages especially where trees remain snow-loaded.
High temps today will be chilly as the fresh snow limits how much the sun can warm the air and colder air pours into the region from the northwest. Look for highs ranging from 30 in the mountains to 50 along the NH coast. Most of the coastal plain should end up right around 40-45.
Calmer weather returns for the weekend before our next storm brings heavy rain to the region Monday.
Today will feature the arrival of a strong late-season winter storm as one area of low pressure falls apart over the Great Lakes and another explosively intensifies in the Gulf of Maine. This storm will bring heavy snow to the foothills and mountains while a mix of rain and snow falls along the coastal plain, and the coastline itself experiences heavy rain. Meanwhile, wind gusts will pick up especially along the coast east of Brunswick. This post will be a little longer than usual as I walk through the storm’s impacts step by step.
Radar imagery this morning shows most of the storm’s precipitation back off to the west as the primary low over Ontario still has control of the situation. As the day goes on, that cluster of thunderstorms rolling through DC will become the secondary low responsible for producing most of our heavy precipitation.
Precipitation will arrive in the area as light rain in SW NH between 8 and 9 this morning as a weak wave of low pressure develops along the primary low’s cold front over New York. When that first round of precipitation reaches the mountains, expect precipitation to fall as snow.
By 3 PM, heavier precipitation will begin arriving as the secondary low begins developing over MA/CT. This will fall as heavy snow in the mountains and heavy rain elsewhere. During this time, thunder is likely in southern NH as a the northern edge of a strong squall line moves through. Any severe weather associated with that line should remain confined to south of the MA border.
The secondary low will really begin to intensify as we move into the evening hours. As it does so, a combination of cooling due to intense upward motion, cooling due to the latent heat exchange that occurs when snowflakes melt, cold air advection on northeast winds, and cooling due to the sun going down will bring the rain/snow line back towards the coast. I think the ECMWF might be a bit optimistic about heavy snow falling in Freeport/Wiscasset/Rockland, but you won’t have to go very far north/west of those towns to get in on the action. While temperatures will remain above 32F outside the mountains, the intense dynamics associated with the rapidly intensifying storm will allow snowfall rates to push into 2-3″ per hour territory. When it’s snowing that hard, you’ll get accumulation even with surface temps 33-35F.
Heavy snow will continue into the evening as the secondary low rapidly intensifies just southeast of Portland. This map is valid at 8 PM and shows heavy snow continuing for most of Maine (save for the immediate coast east of 295 and south of Route 1 while precipitation comes to an end in New Hampshire. This mid/late evening window is when thundersnow becomes a distinct possibility across western Maine. It’s hard to exaggerate just how energetic this storm is going to be.
Mid/late evening is also the time when wind gusts will pick up along the coast east of Brunswick. Right ahead of the storm’s core, gusts over 50 mph are possible south of Route 1 where warmer temperatures will help strong winds aloft mix down to the surface. We’ll also have to worry about coastal impacts from spashover during high tide later this morning and tonight. No major coastal flooding is expected (thankfully the peak storm surge will occur right at low tide) but the typically vulnerable spots are likely to see some water.
The storm will wind down later tonight as the secondary low moves past Bangor towards Houlton. We’ll still be stuck under its influence tomorrow when upslope snow showers will try to move southeast in the form of squalls (possibly with thunder and hail) as a disturbance rotates around the storm. More on that this time tomorrow morning.
So how much snow are we going to end up with when this is all over?
For many of us, the answer is “a lot”. The base map here (shaded) is the NWS official forecast for snowfall totals today. I’ve penciled in my opinion with the contours. For the mountains, this is mostly a 12-18″ storm with locally higher totals in the typical favorite spots (Sugarloaf and the Whites above 2,000ft). That 12″+ zone will bleed east a bit into the foothills NW of Waterville. Most of the Bethel-Augusta-Belfast corridor should end up with 6-12″ (except for Belfast proper) with totals tapering off sharply south of that. The Fryeburg-Lewiston-Camden corridor is the most uncertain but I think 3-6″ is a decent bet. Should the storm end up pulling in a little more cold air, those areas are quickly headed for 6-12″. If the change to snow takes a little longer than expected, 2-3″ will be a struggle to pull off. Right now, based on current observational trends and high resolution guidance trends, I’m leaning a bit on the colder side but there’s still plenty of room for surprises. Farther south, I think the 1″ line makes it close to Gorham/Brunswick/Bath/Wiscasset/Rockland. Again, small forecast errors make a huge difference here. These towns could easily end up not seeing a single flake, or could wind up with a “surprise” 2-4″. Once you move south of Route 1, confidence in an all-rain event is much higher.
Today will feature continued nice weather as a weak storm system races southeast through Massachusetts and eventually offshore. The northern edge of that system has brought some clouds and light precip to southern NH this morning. The precip is on its way out in the next hour or two, but the clouds will be a bit more stubborn. Far SW NH may remain stuck in the overcast for most of the day while drier air erodes the cloud deck over central NH and southwestern ME. Temps will remain mild outside the mountains (highs around 40) and immediate coastline (highs around 45) as temps once again rise into the mid/upper 50s. Enjoy the nice weather!
Remember we have inclement weather arriving on Thursday as a nor’easter rapidly intensifies offshore. That storm will bring high winds, coastal flooding, heavy rain (near the coast) and heavy snow (inland/mountains). Now is the time to prepare for power outages if you’re either right along the coast or in the foothills/mountains.
Today will feature continued quiet weather as a weak cold front reinforces our northwesterly flow pattern without adding much in the way of clouds/precip. Expect clear skies this morning to give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon especially in the mountains as the front slides through and weak upsloping restarts. Downwind of the mountains, clear skies and downsloping will push temps back into the upper 50s/low 60s away from the immediate coastline where a sea breeze will keep temps in the mid to upper 40s. Enjoy the nice weather while it lasts, it looks like we’re in for a late season snowstorm on Thursday night. More details on that system to come.
Today will feature mild temps, sunny skies, and the arrival of a very dry airmass as northwesterly flow takes over behind yesterday’s cold front. Despite the cooler airmass moving in our direction, downsloping and heating from the strong April sun will push temps solidly above 60 for most of the coastal plain. A sea breeze will try to form but should be held at bay by the northwesterly synoptic flow. With that in mind, even the coastline should be pretty warm perhaps with the exception of the Midcoast peninsulas (Boothbay-Rockland especially). Cooler temps in the mid 40s will be found up in the mountains where some upsloping is possible especially this morning. The final notable feature of today’s weather will be just how dry the air will be. Dew points should drop to around 10-15 while surface temps are in the low/mid 60s. If you head outside today, remember to bring some extra chapstick. Otherwise, be aware that fire danger will be high today especially southeast of the mountains.
Today will feature the return of abundant cloud cover and scattered precipitation as we trade our offshore storm for one moving through Quebec. This new system thankfully won’t stick around for several days, but it will drag a cold front through the area this afternoon. Showers will develop along the boundary in western NH by 3-4 PM before moving into Maine between 5 and 7 PM. There’s some signs that these showers will have access to shallow instability, but I don’t see it being strong or deep enough for any severe weather. That said, a brief rumble of thunder can’t be ruled out especially in western NH. Showers will quickly depart from west to east this evening as drier air surges in from Ontario. High temps will range from 45 along the coast and in the northern mountains to 60 for most of interior ME/NH.
The strong ocean storm that has been impacting the area for several days now is finally drifting southeast towards Bermuda this morning. As it races into the Central Atlantic, its grip on the region will loosen but we’ll still be stuck with its footprint for another day. Satellite imagery shows plenty of cloud cover still in place across the region this morning with the exception being a swath of NH SW of the Whites (likely due to downsloping NE winds). Clouds will slowly thin today, but don’t expect bluebird skies unless you’re just downwind of a mountain ridge. Winds will still be breezy out of the north/northeast, but will generally be calmer than yesterday. Precipitation should be all but done though a few patches of drizzle are being observed via radar near Augusta. These should dry up shortly. All in all, today won’t be spectacular weather-wise, but it will be a lot better than the past couple days. High temps will be a bit warmer too, ranging from 40 in the north to 45 right along the coast to 50 for most inland areas to 55 in far SW NH.
The offshore storm that soaked the region yesterday continues to slowly retrograde westward this morning. As a result, we have another day under its influence today. That means overcast skies and blustery north winds (25-35 mph) for all and lingering showers for areas southeast of the mountains. Showers will continue through the early afternoon before dry air begins pushing in from the north and showers depart into southern New England. Overall, today won’t feature much if any hazardous weather (though be aware that with wind gusts nearing 40 mph in spots, a scattered power outage can’t be ruled out) but it will be unpleasant by most people’s definition. Even Mother Nature wants to remind you to stay home.
We’ve enjoyed an unusual amount of nice weather so far this spring season, but today the bill is coming due. A powerful ocean storm is retrograding south of Nova Scotia this morning and is pushing a plume of moisture into the region from the east as it does so. As a result, we can expect overcast skies today along with a cold north wind gusting over 30 mph at times (especially near the coast), and a steady cold rain. Despite being a fascinating event from a meteorological perspective, there’s not actually much more to say about this system that’s relevant to most folks. Radar imagery suggests that the rain is already here except perhaps for far SW NH where it will arrive soon. Rain won’t depart until well after dark so we don’t need to worry about timing that out too closely. Rainfall totals will generally fall in the 1-1.5″ range with higher amounts possible along east-facing mountain slopes and lower amounts in the CT valley west of the White Mountains. Because this rain will fall over a >12 hour period, no flooding is expected. Because winds will be out of the N/NE which is cross/offshore, no significant coastal flooding is expected despite very rough seas.
I’ll leave you with some satellite imagery of this system which (I think) is pretty spectacular.
Today will feature the return of overcast skies as our next storm begins approaching from the northeast. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover crawling southwest along a Portland-Berlin NH line. That means that NH and far SW ME should enjoy a nice sunrise before overcast skies arrive in a few hours. For points NE of Portland, the clouds are already here. Between the clouds and northerly breezes, today’s temps will remain on the chillier side ranging from 35 in the mountains to 40 along most of the coastal plain to 45 or 50 in far southwestern NH. The storm will throw its first batch of precipitation at us from the east this evening, but it shouldn’t arrive in Penobscot Bay until after 9 PM and Brunswick/Augusta after 10-11 PM. Most of the cold rain we’ll be dealing with from this storm will come tomorrow.
Forecasterjack 